JF-17 PFX program

[Ak01]

J-35A will likely come as the F-16A/Bs likely won't serve past 2040 from what I can assess. The PAF doesn't have any real options that can slot into the offensive spear-tip role.

desperate times call for desperate measures?

 

[That_Guy]

suppose we have money for it , can we do it without us approval

Blk 30 and below? Absolutely. Turkiye essentially did that itself.

Blk 52 is where it gets troublesome, as even Turkiye is having trouble doing it without US assistance.

 

[Starlord]

hes talking shite.

Most of PAF's mirages now are EoL, they selected the few remaining airframes to form 50TA Sqn

Cobras transitioned to J-10s

Haiders, Block 3's

I think the mirages were consolidated to Rafiqui, they're becoming far too difficult to keep running now. Theres no F-7P's as far as i know, with some F-7PG's remaining.

Its definitely not 250+ older planes.

But yea, they're going to need to do something about the dwindling sqn strengths as aircraft become unserviceable. Only real option is pick up some more JF-17s, but i think block 3 is an interim, hence the hesitance, its clear the PAF is waiting for something otherwise the JF-17 or J10 option has always been there... I wonder whether the PAF would trade some mirage squadrons for example for Kizilelma, would be interesting.

I guess the money might be a issue for adding 1 or 2 sq of J-10's, and more JF-17's. Pakistan economy is struggling and with it the defense budget. But even if the numbers of old fighters are smaller than reported, we still have many Mirages and F7PG's to replace, from the old forum times, there were discussions that JF-17s will become the backbone, meaning replacing the F7s' and large number of Mirages but we are only at what? roughly 150+ JF-17's? The number should be around 200-250, but again it might be the finance that tie Air forces hands.

The idea of replacing the Mirages with that drone you mentioned is good but that begs the question what the PAF requirements of total Sq's ? do we have a number like IAF always talk about 42 operational sqs but they are always short too.

 

[Desprado123]

hes talking shite.

Most of PAF's mirages now are EoL, they selected the few remaining airframes to form 50TA Sqn

Cobras transitioned to J-10s

Haiders, Block 3's

I think the mirages were consolidated to Rafiqui, they're becoming far too difficult to keep running now. Theres no F-7P's as far as i know, with some F-7PG's remaining.

Its definitely not 250+ older planes.

But yea, they're going to need to do something about the dwindling sqn strengths as aircraft become unserviceable. Only real option is pick up some more JF-17s, but i think block 3 is an interim, hence the hesitance, its clear the PAF is waiting for something otherwise the JF-17 or J10 option has always been there... I wonder whether the PAF would trade some mirage squadrons for example for Kizilelma, would be interesting.

I think jf 17 number are unknown and there many people in this forum were surprised when they saw 24 series of JF 17 B3 was traveling to Azharbhijan.

Imo, we have 160 to 170 JF 17. Overall we have 400+ jets which will be in working condition.

 

[Oscar]

J-35A will likely come as the F-16A/Bs likely won't serve past 2040 from what I can assess. The PAF doesn't have any real options that can slot into the offensive spear-tip role.

They are already being rationed AFAIK.
However the J-35 wont arrive in scale for another few years.

 

[Oscar]

desperate times call for desperate measures?

View attachment 164434

Desperate measures need to be scalable not just from an airframe perspective but also from infra to operate them which goes well beyond just the serviced jet.
To me half the challenge with CCAs or Unmanned systems is having the net and resources to operate them effectively as part of overall ecosystem.

 

[Tariq Habib Afridi]

@Oscar @Ak01 gustaakhi muaaf but i think Turkiye’s biggest challenge with the KAAN is engine.

What if Turkiye and Pakistan reached an agreement where a downgraded/de-rated (means scaled small) variant of the KAAN is produced in Pakistan as the PFX (obviously with full Turkish assistance), and Pakistan supplies Chinese engines for it?

That way, if the original KAAN engine program faces delays or sanctions, both the PAF and the TuAF would have a viable backup fighter (the PFX) ready to go.

Does that make sense as a Plan B for both countries?

 

[Oscar]

@Oscar @Ak01 gustaakhi muaaf but i think Turkiye’s biggest challenge with the KAAN is engine.

What if Turkiye and Pakistan reached an agreement where a downgraded/de-rated (means scaled small) variant of the KAAN is produced in Pakistan as the PFX (obviously with full Turkish assistance), and Pakistan supplies Chinese engines for it?

That way, if the original KAAN engine program faces delays or sanctions, both the PAF and the TuAF would have a viable backup fighter (the PFX) ready to go.

Does that make sense as a Plan B for both countries?

I feel those programs have separate ideas.
A smaller scaled Kaan is in essence a new fighter - as an example the Superhornet barely shares 40% common with the Hornet so why first try to learn the Kaan a 100% then try to scale it down when you may have better options to see what could be done with the JF-17 jigs and knowledge. At most you will have another 70% to learn instead of relative "zero".

As for engines and sanctions, that is where Pakistan is and will continue to struggle because it has lost the opportunity to absorb turbine related expertise and metallurgy in the past 4 decades even when both Expat Pakistanis and foreign experts were willing to put in the effort.
So while we do rail against the current CAS due to the more public papers , be wary that ego's have also been active in the past that have caused losses to PAF.

PAF's best bet is to see what alternative engine suppliers it can get and through it's participation with TAI do studies on alternative engines besides the F-100 series(even though for the PAF that is an EXCELLENT choice sanctions notwithstanding because it has over 40 years of experience with it)

 

[Corax]

Pakistanis love to worship other people, be it the Americans, the Arabs, and now the Chinese Vs Turks. The truth is none of them could care less about Pakistan, anyone will screw over Pakistan when it suits them.

It's highly unlikely the PAF can afford both the J35 and Kaan in sizeable numbers. The Chinese have more experience with developing aircraft, especially fifth gen now, as well as being ahead in engine tech Vs the Turks. There's more risk associated with the Kaan, given that it's the first fighter turkey has developed, as well as risk associated with the engine and other subsystems if they use western suppliers....similar to the fiasco with the T129. The J35 would be the safest bet, but then Pakistanis never learn and will make the same mistake again.

The PAF would be better off developing a UCAV similar to the Kizelmar, given that it seems to have a pretty good data link and network centric capabilities, these would be cheaper to produce and deploy in large numbers. The bulk of it's fifth gen fleet will probably comprise the PFX, which I suspect will follow a similar developmental model as the JF17, i.e. collaborate with China to design a simple single engine LO fighter that can be built in Pakistan and developed by the PAF for its needs.

 

[Michael]

What if Turkiye and Pakistan reached an agreement where a downgraded/de-rated (means scaled small) variant of the KAAN is produced in Pakistan as the PFX (obviously with full Turkish assistance), and Pakistan supplies Chinese engines for it?

Given the close relationship between Pakistan and Turkey, I don't want to comment on Türkiye or the KAAN project (as this would draw a lot of criticism from Pakistanis). But I can say with certainty that your idea is impossible to realize. There is absolutely no possibility that China would provide engines for the project you described.

To prevent any misunderstandings, I would like to clarify:
These are my personal opinions, not official statements.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

when are you going to renounce islam and let everyone know you worship the chinese instead?

Astaghfirullah, tawba tawba.

Mazaak, masti meh aisay to nahi boltay, bahi sahib.

 

[puttputt]

Ameen. There you go. Now next time my humble suggestion is to start focusing on the right things.

I'm still waiting for your dua. Will you make dua that PML, PPP, and all corrupt bureaucrats, officers, and politicians in Pakistan are erased? I'm just trying to make sure we don't have any cult-members here -- just Neutrals. Are we all Neutrals here, my guys?

Desperate measures need to be scalable not just from an airframe perspective but also from infra to operate them which goes well beyond just the serviced jet.
To me half the challenge with CCAs or Unmanned systems is having the net and resources to operate them effectively as part of overall ecosystem.

The most optimal path available to Pakistan's SOE base is a loyal wingman UCAV.

The technology guts for it all are there in AWC. In fact, the South Africans explicitly called out ALCM tech as the starting point for a small recoverable UCAV with x2-4 AAM or SDB carriage capability.

So, Pakistan can get from A to B here, though the runway may be pretty long due to the technical work we need to master as part of the process.

That said, however, a partnership between Baykar Group and AWC would be perfect and allow this to happen. First, Baykar doesn't offer a UCAV of this particular class (though it's likely required by the TuAF), so there's no overlap or competing product segment. Second, it much simpler to build and even indigenize for Pakistan compared to the Kizilelma.

Now, I also have a more controversial view, but if the PAF wants a new lightweight fighter to call its own and actually integrate its industry into, then it should sign onto the TAI Hurjet and work with TAI to develop that into the dream 4,5+ or 5-minus jet the PFX is being made out to be.

It'd mean taking a couple of steps back from where the JF-17 is, but it can be a great leap forward if we build an actual industry around it. We will NOT get this from the Chinese as their incentives structure is clearly to manufacture everything and export it -- they're not a friendly trade partner (testified by the whole world except for the Chinese).

But the players to make the alternative happen are all there: TAI's core platform in Hurjet and their good expertise in flight controls, etc; the Ukrainians with their AI-9XXX turbofan proposal (which, at one point, was shown to the PAF); NASTP with their radar, avionics, EW/ECM design work; and NESCOM with an industrial base of sorts (that needs some reforming, but it's a starting point).

We can do it, and I would rather this route, but it takes the mentality of our nuclear program (i.e., where we built the nuclear fuel cycle ourselves) rather than the, "We'll buy it from China" view.

 

[Night Memory]

I'm still waiting for your dua. Will you make dua that PML, PPP, and all corrupt bureaucrats, officers, and politicians in Pakistan are erased? I'm just trying to make sure we don't have any cult-members here -- just Neutrals. Are we all Neutrals here, my guys?


The most optimal path available to Pakistan's SOE base is a loyal wingman UCAV.

The technology guts for it all are there in AWC. In fact, the South Africans explicitly called out ALCM tech as the starting point for a small recoverable UCAV with x2-4 AAM or SDB carriage capability.

So, Pakistan can get from A to B here, though the runway may be pretty long due to the technical work we need to master as part of the process.

That said, however, a partnership between Baykar Group and AWC would be perfect and allow this to happen. First, Baykar doesn't offer a UCAV of this particular class (though it's likely required by the TuAF), so there's no overlap or competing product segment. Second, it much simpler to build and even indigenize for Pakistan compared to the Kizilelma.

Now, I also have a more controversial view, but if the PAF wants a new lightweight fighter to call its own and actually integrate its industry into, then it should sign onto the TAI Hurjet and work with TAI to develop that into the dream 4,5+ or 5-minus jet the PFX is being made out to be.

It'd mean taking a couple of steps back from where the JF-17 is, but it can be a great leap forward if we build an actual industry around it. We will NOT get this from the Chinese as their incentives structure is clearly to manufacture everything and export it -- they're not a friendly trade partner (testified by the whole world except for the Chinese).

But the players to make the alternative happen are all there: TAI's core platform in Hurjet and their good expertise in flight controls, etc; the Ukrainians with their AI-9XXX turbofan proposal (which, at one point, was shown to the PAF); NASTP with their radar, avionics, EW/ECM design work; and NESCOM with an industrial base of sorts (that needs some reforming, but it's a starting point).

We can do it, and I would rather this route, but it takes the mentality of our nuclear program (i.e., where we built the nuclear fuel cycle ourselves) rather than the, "We'll buy it from China" view.

I literally said Amen to what you said. And ill say it again. Erase all the corrupt from PMLN, PTI, PPP and any other political party. Dont be thick headed.

With regards to your point on loyal wingman, good point but why do we need to partner with Baykar? Wouldnt Baykar prefer doing it by themselves? We already have a good foundation in Shahpar, we can defo take it from there.

Hurjet defo can be explored but only makes sense if we are going for TFX as well. If our foundation is going to stay at chinese fighter jets then making our trainer in combination with China makes more sense.

 

[puttputt]

I literally said Amen to what you said. And ill say it again. Erase all the corrupt from PMLN, PTI, PPP and any other political party. Dont be thick headed.

With regards to your point on loyal wingman, good point but why do we need to partner with Baykar? Wouldnt Baykar prefer doing it by themselves? We already have a good foundation in Shahpar, we can defo take it from there.

Hurjet defo can be explored but only makes sense if we are going for TFX as well. If our foundation is going to stay at chinese fighter jets then making our trainer in combination with China makes more sense.

On Baykar's side, it'd be a way for them to get a partner who'd share the R&D funding for said CCA drone and guarantee an upfront large-scale order. In most cases, partnerships like this are often built on these two foundations: (1) share funding and (2) initial order set. It's easier to do this with someone else than to do it alone. For ex., yes, Baykar could do it alone regardless, but it's always good to take the less costly path (sharing with a partner) as it would free up your funding and resources for other areas.

On Pakistan's side, it's the opportunity to leverage what Baykar knows to fast-track our development. We could do it alone, sure, but with the right partner we can get there faster. For ex., Baykar has access to better instrumentation, wind-tunnel facilities, and experience with a jet-powered UCAV platform (esp. in flight controls, aerodynamics, etc) that we would need to support our program and achieve results in a shorter timeframe. Moreover, a big order from the PAF also helps create an incentives structure for us to get the Turks (more generally) to help us with the underlying industrial ecosystem. So, this can occur via getting the Turks to invest in Pakistani startups that can eventually feed into the UCAV and, later, KAAN and Hurjet channels.

As for the Chinese; there's no partnership with the Chinese. I'm not attacking them here or anything, it's literally their policy and it shows over, and over, and over, and over again everywhere they go. The issue with China is that (for legitimate historical reasons) do NOT want to cede in the industrial supply chain except for the areas they cannot control for natural reasons (like natural resources, which they're working to control via other methods, such as investment).

So, when dealing with the Chinese, you have to come in as a cold, pragmatic buyer and do NOT expect anything more or less. To China's credit, once they sign the contract, they will deliver, and will deliver at a good cost. Thus, the way to use the Chinese here is to import the specific inputs you'll need right away for your system. Lean on them for that until such time your own industry can swap in and replace them in that specific area.

For ex., the munitions tech space is probably a good starting point to leverage the Chinese industry; you will get good seekers, motors, casings etc., at low costs and can kick-off a loitering munitions assembly line real quick. But the point of said strategy is to fill holes and reach timelines, not to build an industry.

To build an industry, you need partners much closer in size to you who'd be willing to trade one thing to get another thing (e.g., Turks will cede on tech transfer if it means you share the R&D funding with them as they can steer their freed funds to another area, but you help eat the cost of R&D in return).

The prob with the JF-17 is that we (1) subsidized the R&D by 50% (i.e., paid to help the Chinese improve their R&D, not ours), (2) then bought Chinese (and some Western) tooling to build PAC's ARF plant, (3) import key inputs from the Chinese at the rates the Chinese define, including subassembly inputs, the engine, inputs for the radar and avionics, etc., and (4) then literally not move one inch in becoming more independent in the true sense of the term.

What we paid for with the JF-17 is to become less dependent on the West (which is good) to become more dependent on China (which is not good).

Middle powers like Turkey, South Africa, etc., don't care for building end-to-end dependencies, they are more in it like us to just not be beholden to any big power. So, for them, it's about building capacity so that they can compete better with China, USA, EU, etc. They partner with like-minded states to pool markets (thereby having places to sell to and buy from), share overhead costs, and laterally transfer and receive know-how.

 

[Ak01]

What we paid for with the JF-17 is to become less dependent on the West (which is good) to become more dependent on China (which is not good).

if i could turn back time, i would abort whoever decided on the JF-17 project instead of developing a mirage 3 based fighter in house wholly.