Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Falcon29]

This is bad. They may request US greenlight or US help to entirely decimate ballistic missile program. They like to hit people while they're weak.

Iran and AoR didn't prepare accordingly.

Too dependent on Hezbollah having served as a deterrent

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[tsunset]

This is bad. They may request US greenlight or US help to entirely decimate ballistic missile program. They like to hit people while they're weak.

Iran and AoR didn't prepare accordingly.

Too dependent on Hezbollah having served as a deterrent

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It's well known that everything Israel say is 100% true and accurate and cannot be contradicted because Israelis are the chosen people that always tell the truth and are superior to everyone on earth

 

[Bharatah]

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Libyan Chief of Staff killed in plane crash in Ankara hours after meeting Turkish defence minister

Zionism plot: This case is identical to that of the helicopter carrying the Iranian president.

NOTE: The idea here is to overthrow the current Libyan government in order to install the terrorist and dictator Haftar, who was trained for years in the US.

 

[Bharatah]

This is bad. They may request US greenlight or US help to entirely decimate ballistic missile program. They like to hit people while they're weak.

Iran and AoR didn't prepare accordingly.

Too dependent on Hezbollah having served as a deterrent

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Classical Zionist Fake news.

 

[Ali_Baba]

. it was effective, Israel had free reign over Iran for 17 hours without Iran launching a single missile back in that time

What this highlighted was a lack of effective chain of command where the next in line automatically takes over under wartime conditions. I do hope that has been fixed now? It did look like amateur hour at the start…

 

[Persian Gulf]

This is bad. They may request US greenlight or US help to entirely decimate ballistic missile program. They like to hit people while they're weak.

Iran and AoR didn't prepare accordingly.

Too dependent on Hezbollah having served as a deterrent

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I don't find this credible. biggest and newest SSM bases are in West Iran. each holding 200-500+ missiles. these bases were rendered inoperable during the war, meaning those missiles are part of the remaining inventory.

all recent estimates from the US and Israeli indicate Iran is producing 100-200 missiles per month (Israeli estimates put Iran's capacity for solid fuel missiles alone at 200+ per month). so the numbers don't add up.

plus 500-600 missiles in the last round used by 25% of the US global SM-3 and THAAD stockpile, and a large chunk of Israel's Arrow-3 interceptors. so another 1000 is enough to make them think twice before they restock on interceptors, which will take a few years.

 

[Persian Gulf]

What this highlighted was a lack of effective chain of command where the next in line automatically takes over under wartime conditions. I do hope that has been fixed now? It did look like amateur hour at the start…

problem was entire IRGC-ASF leadership met in same place and were killed together at once, so there was total chaos. since naive IRGC was telling everyone there was no risk and Israel will not attack and they cannot do anything to us.

they should meet in separate secure bunkers and communicate via secure remote communications

although the new leadership frequently released footage of their meetings so the new bunker seems safer

 

[PakAl]

I don't think anyone seriously believes they could achieve regime change in 2 weeks

they wanted chaos, and struck IRIB building (broadcasts resumed within a few minutes) and Evin prison (killed a few dissidents) but these were symbolic and 99% of their strikes were against missile and nuclear infrastructure and assassinations of HVTs

this is clearly not a regime change operation. if that's their objective next time, it will look very different

The zionist always have a similar plan, people thought Iran was untouchable and they bombed it for 12 days, Iran could not defend themselves. The same way Iran attacked the zionist and Zion could not defend themselves. The difference is what if the next attack takes place for 1 month and after 3 weeks Iran is unable to fire missiles at Israel or runs out of missiles. If Iran has 3000 missiles its not enough, the zionist will run out of air to surface missiles but Usa will restock it for them. The same with Air defence system missiles. Israel was testing the waters and now they want more.

The only way regime will be changed is if Israel bombs Iran for many months without a reply, they target all missiles cities, nuclear facilities, tanks, planes, navy, what this will do is make Iran weak like Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad army, then its an opening for world powers to intervene. Once the security forces are weak its not too difficult although may take a decade of destability. With Iraq and Syria they sanctioned them for decades, Iraq was then directly invaded, Syria through wahabi ikhwani terrorists and Gaddafi Nato no fly zone.

Today Israel is lobbying Trump to support an attack, they don't care about economic costs, after 1 month of attacking Iran missiles factories, army, navy they will have total air superiority over Iran and control Strait of Hormuz, the economy loss will be paid by stealing Iranian oil and gas.

Iran needs to make some decisions now, if they're in Russian Indian camp then they must get some gurantees to stop an invasion, Iran must inform the UN and world powers that if Iran is attacked again they will declare full blown war against Israel in order to defend themselves. If they are unable to do this then change their international policies, get rid of IRGC and allow Iranian national army to take charge, the downside is they may end up doing a coup. Iran desperately needs allies. If Iran built the nukes during Iraqi war when North Korea tested it, atleast today would have been able to stop an attack.

 

[PakAl]

What this highlighted was a lack of effective chain of command where the next in line automatically takes over under wartime conditions. I do hope that has been fixed now? It did look like amateur hour at the start…

I think they did automatically take over, the issue was Israel attack was unexpected, they killed too many senior generals. It must have been a big shock. Iranian IADs were taken out aswell. Drones were used from within Iran and also missiles fired from Iraqi airspace. Not sure if Israeli planes entered Iranian airspace or not. We all saw drones inside iran but no video of any fighter jets. Usa stealth bombers were undetected.

 

[Falcon29]

It's well known that everything Israel say is 100% true and accurate and cannot be contradicted because Israelis are the chosen people that always tell the truth and are superior to everyone on earth

Israel may say things so Iran gets complacent thinking it's new processes are obscure from Israeli/US intelligence when in reality they may have eyes on Iran's new production/storage sites

It is true however that is between 1,000-2,000 ballistic missiles

US military estimate was accurate

Whatever it is, the equation has changed. Iranian airspace is unprotected now. Nuclear program is out of the picture.

They're going to subject Iranian BM program to regular assaults (maybe 1-2 times a year). Even smaller type of attacks that Iran won't have to respond to.

Unless Iran rehabilitates its allies or 'proxies' rapidly, which is proving to be a big challenge due to situation in Gaza and Lebanon.

Hamas will survive but Gaza is indefinitely out of the picture for a prolonged period

Hezbollah is subjected to an open war low intensity situation that is having a bad impact on their ability to rehabilitate their capabilities. South Lebanon is almost off limits for Hezbollah. They don't have an effective deterrent capability at the moment.

Iran would have to use Iraq. Deploy thousands of drones and cruise missiles there to serve as a deterrent but Iran likely won't want to upset Iraqi government nor people that don't wanna be apart of the fight. Iraqi government is also balancing relations with all neighbors.

Israel isn't in a rush to attack Iran it likely won't be till mid/late 2026. And they're unfortunately several steps ahead of Iran which is to be expected with US military and intelligence backing.

Pre 10/7 was a better situation for Iran. But who knew AoR was so fragile. That points to lack of popular support but also lack of creativity. Not establishing red lines far before 10/7.

Even worse probably actually believing it would never come down to direct conflict. They assumed Israeli's will run into logistical challenges preventing any sustained assault on Iran.

The people developing the missiles did study Israeli defenses and innovate to adapt to increasingly high tech of Israeli army. But got complacent in many other arenas.

 

[Falcon29]

I don't find this credible. biggest and newest SSM bases are in West Iran. each holding 200-500+ missiles. these bases were rendered inoperable during the war, meaning those missiles are part of the remaining inventory.

The efficient route here is to rehabilitate these bases and make them operable even in such conditions. Missile bases have to be operable in coming rounds. Don't assume they can't reach eastern Iran they probably can. Or they request US does cruise missiles strikes for further away targets.

all recent estimates from the US and Israeli indicate Iran is producing 100-200 missiles per month (Israeli estimates put Iran's capacity for solid fuel missiles alone at 200+ per month). so the numbers don't add up.

I don't think Iran has ability right now to make 200 solid fuel missiles per month. That would be a difference maker if true.

But ability to deploy such systems during war matters too. If launchers become scare it becomes a big problem.

plus 500-600 missiles in the last round used by 25% of the US global SM-3 and THAAD stockpile, and a large chunk of Israel's Arrow-3 interceptors. so another 1000 is enough to make them think twice before they restock on interceptors, which will take a few years.

Less than few years. More like one year.

The Trump administration has no appetite for more Israeli war waged on the region because it will lead to lost trust in US as a partner by its own allies. Gulf Partners especially don't want such instability in their region. Israel has given the US a bad reputation. US wants Israel on a leash right now, not on the loose. That's the likely reason why no sustained campaign will happen again anytime soon.

But strikes like they used to do in Syria (4-5) strikes every other weekend may become an occurrence.

If Iran is serious about deterring Israel and bloodying it's nose, it would need to strengthen Hezbollah in Lebanon, provide lots of short range ballistic missiles and also strengthen Iraqi faction significantly to use such weapons in an opening strike.

There would need to be a significant opening volley of drones/cruise missiles/ballistic missiles originating from Iraq and Lebanon. Like 700-1000. At least the option/capability to do so is enough to deter such an Israeli campaign on Iran.

Question is does the Iranian leadership have the willingness to push back heavily against new Israeli status quo in region or they rather lie low and play it safe? Israel in my opinion was always covertly violent like it was post 10/7. We Palestinains view that as their normal. They were scared to come out overtly with their true colors but now after 10/7 they are overtly showing who they always were. They were always pyschotic blood lusting killers addicted to war and violence.

If AoR doesn't evolve post 10/7, then they will just try surviving.

They need to go beyond surviving. This is what Hamas wanted from them. To get out of survival mode and have more risk posture against Israel.

 

[Falcon29]

Iran did something smart it focused on targeting Tel Aviv heavily

The AoR needs to adjust strategy and evolve to do things :

1.) Heavily destruct Tel Aviv/Center Israel Tech Hub Area

2.) Shrink Israeli borders by making Israeli border towns inhabitable by using disproportionate force

^^

Civilians in Tel Aviv absolutely need to be targeted the Zionists can't have this off limits status anymore

Iran was focusing on targeting Tel Aviv infrastructure it's held back by lake of resources and ability to deploy weapons systems. Having many more missiles and being able to effectively deploy firepower in future will make widespread destruction in Tel Aviv a reality in any future war

#2 is what Hamas experimented with. But it also did a ground strike to complement that which is really what made settlers flee and evacuate the Gaza envelope.

The ground incursion options should be made as a last resort and if other Arab states participate or if the entire Ummah does.

Instead Hezbollah and Hamas should heavily deploy firepower against border towns in short period of time to render them inhabitable. And they should avoid targeting Central Israel except for certain scenarios.

There actually needs to be a Joint Operations Room from now on between Hamas/Islamic Jihad + Hezbollah+ Iran + Iraqi factions where everything is strictly coordinated

If there is war with Iran then Iran's goal would be to equip Hezbollah and Iraqi factions with capability to do a large opening volley of drones/cruise missiles/SRBM's to throw Israeli defenses out of whack and exhaust intercopters

Israel is testing out laser interceptors systems probably because it may have previously assessed such a scenario is realistic and possible and they can't rely just on interceptors

Hezbollah and Hamas should scrap medium range rockets

It should all be short range (up to 40KM) to flatten Israeli border towns

+

Long range rockets to target Tel Aviv

That's what Hamas did. It had mostly short range rockets + long range rockets. And it built a ring of fire around Gaza's borders the rockets it fired on 10/7 were very close to Israeli border and a tunnel system was built exclusively for that to make Gaza envelope inhabitable

The ground incursion was more of a surprise for everybody and more about taking revenge and stopping Jewish aggression on Al Aqsa Mosque and Jerusalem

Hezbollah+ Hamas =

must be capable of forcing Israelis out of border towns which puts forward pressure on economy and increases domestic stress

Iraqi factions + Hezbollah=

Must be able to deliver opening punch against Israeli defense systems, exposing battery locations + exhausting interceptors

Iran =

Must be able to inflict widespread destruction Tel Aviv and kill 100+ Israelis a die, if not 100-300+ which is very possible if they run low on interceptors

..
..

The goal is to hurt Israel and cause them pain. Deter them and make them not seek war again.

It's a big burden on Lebanese people if Gaza is out of picture and can't serve that role, Israeli strikes on Lebanon would get more violent and they'll be out to get civilians. Iraq make be targeted by US + Israeli airstrikes but they otherwise would manage well.

Thousands on AoR side would die likely between 5,000-7,000 people in such a conflict.

Israel would suffer 1,000-3,000 killed

As opposed to the 25-50 people killed with current AoR strategy (not counting the 1,800-2,000 killed from 10/7 and ground invasion of Gaza )

Israel would fear the AoR for once

 

[kastor ville]

can you give me some examples of Israeli military figures admitting the goal was regime change


those were mostly isolated incidents or errant strikes. the vast majority of the attacks targeted SSM bases and military infrastructure.

no one thinks you achieve regime change by blowing up a few cars (probably a failed strike) and an IRIB building (symbolic terrorism)

if they wanted regime change they would destroy the oil and gas facilities

You're naive.......I guess you don't know how Western politics work in the open media.
Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan.

When there was no uprising, they changed the narrative.....of course they would say it WAS NOT the goal.....they're saving face! Because goal #1 failed!!!!!!!!!!!!
Are you that simple that you would think they'd come out and say, yeah everyone we tried, but we failed, sorry.... come on!

First example: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/16/middleeast/israel-operation-iran-regime-change-netanyahu-intl

Second example: move to tick 4:40 mark

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Third example: https://www.axios.com/2025/06/17/iran-regime-change-israel-war-trump

fourth example: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/us/politics/regime-change-israel-iran-trump.html

 

[kastor ville]

Good article in the Atlantic.....
Iran must get Hezbollah/Lebanon ready.....we have to make this latest Israeli endeavor costly as possible.

The Middle East is on the brink of a new crisis. Here’s where it could start.

No one should confuse the patchwork of temporary cease-fire agreements in place throughout the Middle East for sustainable deterrence and peace.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[ToddE]

Funding should be cut for every single foreign group. IRI lost 500+ Billion USD on these groups for fighting meaningless wars with Israel and US.

Iran has ZERO stake in intrasemite problems. Arab league, PGCC, OIC and other organizations exist for dealing with Israeli genocides of Arabs. Its not Iranian responsibility. Money saved from this BS should be spent on Hydrocarbon sector and urban infrastructure i.e. on Iranian people. Sanctionless Iranian economy is 10 times larger by default.