Pakistan-India Conflict 2025: News Updates and Discussion

[Oscar]

Perils of writing from a cellphone

But

Has deterrence been re-established ?
Why would that statement be made?

Was it specifically nuclear deterrence that was being inferred or deterrence as a whole?

Deterrence isn’t some constant if the other side assumes it doesn’t exist. If India made an error in estimating Pakistan’s capabilities then the deterrence was not known to them.

What measures gave them the confidence to try Op Sindoor post what happened at Balakot(where Shaheens were pulled out for Brahmos)?

I feel like these questions have not been addressed but positions taken on the results.

 

[Bratva]

@Oscar The oddest Missile strike from india in Lahore was in Sundarban industrial area. Payload fell and exploded in empty lot. . Brahmos/Scalp was either spoofed and it exploded there or something was there and it escaped in the nick of time from there

 

[Oscar]

@Oscar The oddest Missile strike from india in Lahore was in Sundarban industrial area. Payload fell and exploded in empty lot. . Brahmos/Scalp was either spoofed and it exploded there or something was there and it escaped in the nick of time from there

Pretty sure it was spoofed.
There is no scale in kinetic kill so Im pretty sure once they realize that a projectile isn’t heading where it was they let it go.

A few were seen missing Karachi installations and then just let to roam around until they crashed off into other areas.

Technically the other advantage was by keeping kinetic assets especially ones using emitters to guide systems off you aren’t revealing any other targets.

At the end of the day a 70s vintage Chinese AAA with two naiks or seamen isn’t a “worry”

 

[rafale]

Pretty sure it was spoofed.
There is no scale in kinetic kill so Im pretty sure once they realize that a projectile isn’t heading where it was they let it go.

A few were seen missing Karachi installations and then just let to roam around until they crashed off into other areas.

Technically the other advantage was by keeping kinetic assets especially ones using emitters to guide systems off you aren’t revealing any other targets.

At the end of the day a 70s vintage Chinese AAA with two naiks or seamen isn’t a “worry”

@Oscar

Scalp and Brahmos both were able to be spoofed?
Some were hard kills as well i suppose.

What other SOW they used?

 

[PakistaniDefender]

If the objectives were met in first 2 min, why the fight continued? Just give a simple answer instead of any whatsboutism.

Can u tell why did the fighting continued?

 

[Oscar]

@Oscar

Scalp and Brahmos both were able to be spoofed?
Some were hard kills as well i suppose.

What other SOW they used?

Scalp, Brahmos and Spice.
All were spoofed and two way jammed
Spoofing is somewhat agnostic to system in that you are trying to throw off the coordinates being received on multiple positioning systems by generating similar signals. Which is why India so badly wants to move to its own system for military because for now Beidou offers PAF a “secure-ish” system compared to Glonass or Gps which are widely known(and use legacy encoding)

 

[PakistaniDefender]

BuM, the YIHA bait was smoothly ignored but then once a CM-400 and F4 were sent the S-400s way both Bhuj and Adampur batteries went silent.

So Baburs were used it means. Can you tell me its effectiveness?

 

[hasssanali8998]

So Baburs were used it means. Can you tell me its effectiveness?

?? though we only used f1 and f2

 

[rafale]

Scalp, Brahmos and Spice.
All were spoofed and two way jammed
Spoofing is somewhat agnostic to system in that you are trying to throw off the coordinates being received on multiple positioning systems by generating similar signals. Which is why India so badly wants to move to its own system for military because for now Beidou offers PAF a “secure-ish” system compared to Glonass or Gps which are widely known(and use legacy encoding)

and regarding the post battle assessment of hard kills? HQ16 and 9 both had kills?

And how the heck did the bholari one go through?

Considering it missed off center of the hanger, either it was partially spoofed or miss judged based on expected vector?

 

[Princeps]

@Oscar The oddest Missile strike from india in Lahore was in Sundarban industrial area. Payload fell and exploded in empty lot. . Brahmos/Scalp was either spoofed and it exploded there or something was there and it escaped in the nick of time from there

That was a Rampage actually from the looks of it. Unlike SCALP and Brahmos It failed to achieve any meaningful hits from what i can tell.

 

[Corax]

I am fairly confident that Pakistan does not have a deep and sustainable magazine of conventional cruise missiles, including systems like Fatah-1 and Fatah-2.

In contrast, artillery stocks appear to be far more robust. During the Kashmir sectors, artillery was reportedly employed very aggressively, including extensive use of systems like the SH-15, which suggests a much deeper and more reliable artillery magazine depth.

At the same time, there have been operational issues with the T-80UD fleet, reportedly linked to engine or lubrication constraints following the Ukraine war. HIT has been working on indigenous replacements, but during this transition the overall efficiency and readiness of the T-80UD appears to have declined. Considering the persistent issues with lubricants and other critical inputs, it is difficult to believe that Pakistan currently possesses the industrial capacity to mass produce missiles and precision guided munitions at the scale some commentators suggest.

Overall, the force posture during BUm looked less like one built around large missile stockpiles and more like one that conserves precision weapons while leaning heavily on deep artillery reserves. Establishment of ARSC suggest we are now moving towards building conventional missiles magazine depths now. Not sure how much they can scale it, since we can't even for **** sake produce car steel. So no we don't have sufficient number of cruise missiles and ballistics.

The reason why there's limited stocks of H 1/2, even probably Babur and Nasr, is because of low number of TELs. You can produce 1,000 missiles per month, but if there's not enough TELs to actually deploy and use them, they're useless.

 

[mythbuster]

Perils of writing from a cellphone

But

Has deterrence been re-established ?
Why would that statement be made?

Was it specifically nuclear deterrence that was being inferred or deterrence as a whole?

Deterrence isn’t some constant if the other side assumes it doesn’t exist. If India made an error in estimating Pakistan’s capabilities then the deterrence was not known to them.

What measures gave them the confidence to try Op Sindoor post what happened at Balakot(where Shaheens were pulled out for Brahmos)?

I feel like these questions have not been addressed but positions taken on the results.

You infer too many scenarios from some off the bat statements ....... let's take your deterrence thingy and see how it works.....there are 3 conventional and one unconventional deterrence .....1 ) air force... Pakistan proved it's superiority.....2 ) navy .... untested , Pakistan wasn't going to fight India in blue waters where India has an edge . In the Persian gulf region Pakistan has an overwhelming edge......3 ) land....it will be a ding dong war . No country has an overwhelming edge.....4 ) cyber war.... Pakistan has proved it's worth...........Now , tell me where do your doubts of deterrence come from ?

 

[hnn]

Has deterrence been re-established ?
Why would that statement be made?

Was it specifically nuclear deterrence that was being inferred or deterrence as a whole?

Deterrence isn’t some constant if the other side assumes it doesn’t exist. If India made an error in estimating Pakistan’s capabilities then the deterrence was not known to them.

I think to have a reasonable discussion on Deterrence, it has to be operationally defined for the context of the discussion. The back and forth b/w the members has been because of their individual take on what deterrence mean. One side is taking it as an "absolute military superiority" (where India can never launch a strike at us) while the other side is taking it as an "attrition penalty" (where India can launch a strike but can't establish operational advantage).

What measures gave them the confidence to try Op Sindoor post what happened at Balakot(where Shaheens were pulled out for Brahmos)?

I feel like these questions have not been addressed but positions taken on the results.

IMPO (and admittedly a narrow one) - India probably thought their platform superiority (Rafale and S-400) gave them sufficient operational advantage to pick a conflict with Pakistan and continue to maintain operational advantage. It is evident from their tactics post May 7 (esp night of May 9/10) how they didn't have a contingency plan once their platform dependent bubble bursted. In an ideal timeline, India wouldn't have felt the need to use CMs (that was their last tier of weapons system below a nuclear threshold and a full-scale war).

 

[Ibbi32]

Scalp, Brahmos and Spice.
All were spoofed and two way jammed
Spoofing is somewhat agnostic to system in that you are trying to throw off the coordinates being received on multiple positioning systems by generating similar signals. Which is why India so badly wants to move to its own system for military because for now Beidou offers PAF a “secure-ish” system compared to Glonass or Gps which are widely known(and use legacy encoding)

If spice was spoofed and alan warnes article claims Indians used spice on nur khan raid why was that unable to be stopped. Surely nur khan has sizable kinetic and non kinetic kill mechanisms right?

 

[AeronautIR]

Okay, let's go with PAF's assessment.

According to the PAF, how many missiles hit targets or, so that we have a safe space for you, crashed within a Pakistani military facility, and how many did the PAF say were intercepted?

I will use the exact numbers you provide to prove my point.

So now it's on me... I thought you have already proven these facts.
About PAF claims, we cannot be selective. You don't believe the CAS about hitting 34 Indian targets, so why would you believe the interception rate?
I have done my calculations and that is why I know that those hits don't mean India can take out our bases with cruise missiles in any future conflict.
If you are still alarmed about this threat, I can't panic because of your wrong threat perception.