ShapurII
Trusted Member
If history has proven one thing, times and times again, it is to never trust commies.
Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations
- Thread starter jauk
- Start date
Immortals
Elite Member
I believe we live in a “Western” curated timeline. The timeline split once Nazi Germany fell cementing Western rule.
It’s a timeline where the challengers to Western American Empire are laughably inept at confronting the West (Saddam, Putin, Xi, Khamenai, Kim Jong Un, Ghaddafi).
Hitler must be laughing that the country with one of the largest energy deposits in the world (Iran) and strategic location in an energy and commercial choke point (PG and Red Sea) is NOT in a strategic alliance with the rising Superpower (China) and the historical military power of Europe (Russia).
Seriously a China-Russia-Iran Axis could have been legendary at reversing Western empire. Likely the only shot the world had. But the U.S. surgically kept them at odds with one another, while historical mistrust/misgivings added on to it.
What a missed opportunity. Maybe in another parallel universe this alliance happened, but this timeline is royally fucked and playing field is tilted to the West.
Hassan Al-Somal
Elite Member
"Happy New Year to every Iranian in the streets. Also to every Mossad agent walking beside them..."
Former CIA director is admitting Mossad agents are working with protesters in Iran. It can't get worse than that.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
he's not "admitting" he's "bragging". probably designed to make Iran crack down violently to provoke Trump to intervene somehow
NA71
Trusted Member
Its not damn funny
Immortals
Elite Member
I think the window to make a deal is this year for Iran. If not after 2027 Trump has 2 years where he will do what he wants, which is what Israel wants. He has been pardoning Jewish criminals in the U.S., he has been helping Israel at every turn. He wants them in his camp post presidency to save his family from criminal prosecution. So he is doing the bidding of the most powerful Jewish interests around the world.
To me, the writing is on the wall for Iran. Feels a lot like before Saddam, Ghaddafi, Assad, and now Maduro fell.
When Iran didn’t go to war in 2020 for the assassination of Solemani — it kicked off a domino effect of the loss of Iranian control of the Middle East.
The last 5 years the military and political leadership of Iran have let the country down time after time.
ShapurII
Trusted Member
The Chinese never saw Iran as an important actor to befriend, let alone as a strategic ally. They saw Iran as an irrational player with radical ideology that was too risky to approach because they valued their business with other regional actors like Saudis more than us. The Chinese have no ideology to remain faithful to it, unlike many other global players. They follow a greedy algorithm where each step is optimized for maximum short-term benefit. They would sell anything for the right price, let alone a country like Iran.
As for the Russians, as I have said before, Russians have always been one of our enemies throughout history. The idea that your historic enemy will empower you to challenge the dominant world power, which is costly for them, is laughable to say the least. Russia benefited greatly from Iran's economic collapse and eternal sanctions and over reliance on them. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions on Iran energy poured billions of US dollars into the Russian economy while Russia conveniently used Iran as a card to play whenever they wanted something from the West.
The Ayatollahs chose to sacrifice Iran and turn Iran into a slave labor camp to fund a lost cause in the Islamic world, hoping they would be able to exert regional power through ideology. They had multiple chances to make things right with Iranians, but each time they made the wrong choice and sacrificed Iran's interests. Russia, conveniently, enabled this with great satisfaction through their agents in Iran. China just did business with a failed state for their own economic benefit. There was no strategic alliance to fight the West in any of this in my opinion.
mangekyo
Trusted Member
For a long time, US has seen IRI as both a regional counterweight and a useful threat. IRI helped justify US arms sales and military bases in the Persian Gulf by creating fear of Iranian expansion. That approach made sense when IRI had strong proxy forces, military reach, and real influence in the region. That situation no longer exists.
There is little evidence that US believes Iran can become a stable partner like Saudi Arabia or Turkey. For decades, the objective was not to overthrow IRI but to contain it. Sanctions kept Iran from becoming strong while leaving it strong enough to frighten Arab states and justify US security guarantees, arms sales, and military presence. A sanctioned but functioning IRI, reinforced by its proxy network, served US interests by limiting Iranian power and sustaining a manageable security threat, similar to how Russia is used in Europe to justify NATO expansion, defense spending, and long-term US involvement.
Today, IRI has lost its proxy forces, its military is weak, and its economy is failing. It is no longer seen as a serious threat to Arab states. Some Arab governments are now more worried about instability inside Iran than about Iranian expansion. As a result, a few are cautiously improving relations with IRI. At this point, Iran creates more problems than strategic benefits for US.
I have argued before that US does not want a fragmented Iran. Israel, however, prefers this outcome. Israel does not see Iran as a necessary balance against Sunni power and believes it can deal with Sunni states on its own. My view is that Israel has convinced US that IRI is no longer useful and should be fragmented.
The collapse of IRI’s regional network supports this change. Syria has effectively been handed over to Turkey. This is a much easier situation for Israel to manage. Turkey is a NATO member, depends on the West, and can be pressured through financial leverage and foreign debt in ways Iran could not be. From Israel’s perspective, a Turkey-influenced Syria is preferable to an IRI-aligned one.
Hamas has been neutralized. Hezbollah has been neutralized. PMU no longer function as a unified tool. With IRI stripped of its proxies and regional reach, the reason to keep it as a controlled adversary has disappeared.
IRI has outlived its usefulness. For years, many American politicians openly signaled that a nuclear-armed Iran would be tolerated. Several former CIA officials and senior US intelligence figures publicly argued that a nuclear-armed Iran could be contained and that deterrence would be preferable to war or regime collapse. IRI never crossed that threshold. Without the bomb, without effective proxies, and without regional leverage, IRI no longer serves any strategic function for US and will be fragmented and discarded.
BigMela2onin
Registered Member
I don't disagree but I just want to point out: Russia has always been an unreliable partner to everyone, even pre-Russian revolution they backed down against Britain repeatedly during "the Great Game" and many an Afghan leader lost their rule because they thought Russia would back them. The early to mid-Soviet period was an exception rather than a rule where they didn't back down from supporting DPRK or Vietnam.
This was and remains an accurate assessment, Iran is completely irrational. It picked a fight it wouldn't back down from with the world's sole hyperpower and decided to tie its own hands behind its back as well.
The world saw Iran wasn't even willing to save itself, it couldn't even bother to try to reform its economic or social policies. It wouldn't be wise for anyone, Russia or China or anyone else, to invest in an absolute failed cause.
Leave him to his delirium...... Poor man is diseased to the core.....
You mean a deal for the u.s. tomb the country ????? Come on the u.s. aren't reliable at all....
Do not forget that they invaded Iraq bragging about getting saddam and only to get killed there daily without any return on investment, same in Afghanistan, then they claimed happily that Russia was going to collapse and putin retreat only for the results we know today.... and lastly their "astounding" victory against Iran....
So much bragging for their incompetence.....
ShapurII
Trusted Member
Yes, true, but they did place nukes in Cuba and recently in Belarus. Russia is a notoriously unreliable partner, but in case of Iran, they have more reasons to betray Iran.
The thing is that the Russians see Iran as a potential adversary, due to historical reasons and proximity to Russian territory and sphere of influence.
You can see how the Russians have weakened Iran's military presence in the region in recent years, both in the Caucasus in the Karabakh war and in the Mediterranean by handing over Syria to Turkey. The later opened Syrian airspace to Israeli jet fighters to pass through and reach Iran. The Russians helped the US initiate Iran's economic collapse by carefully preparing a list of punitive measures against Iran in the UN Security Council and passing it each time. It is impossible to deny the role that the Russians have played against Iran's interests in recent years, even when our relations were at a historical peak.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Don't necessarily disagree, but there are a few big problems to any deal with the US
(1) Iran was already negotiating with the US when the US and Israel suddenly bombed Iran. So now Iran wants guarantees that it won't be attacked during negotiations again. Which is a pretty pathetic request and obviously meaningless, but still. Trump openly saying Maduro wanted to negotiate but he had enough and decided to bomb Venezuela anyway, does not help.
(2) Trump's demands were already unrealistic and now they destroyed Fordow and Natanz they have got even worse. Iran could probably show "heroic flexibility" again regarding the nuclear program since that's already destroyed and there are no indications Iran is even trying to restore it. But Trump's demands on Iran's missiles are surrender terms considering those are Iran's only means of firing back at Israel. IRI will not accept surrender terms unless it is really on the brink of total defeat/collapse, and by then the US will not offer/accept any deal short of regime change anyway. So something has to give.
it's hard to see a path forward here. IRI cannot sit and wait like last time. The rules of the game have changed. They need to take drastic action or prepare for drastic action to be forced onto them.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
the story with Venezuela is far from over
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