Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[kastor ville]

Hitting GCC energy terminals and Israel itself, that's the only play left in a war scenario. It would be legitimate too as this whole gang of US,Israel and GCC has been attacking Iran since 1979.

Personally I think the US won't go for full scale air campaign , I think the options to exercise now after failed June 2025 and Jan 2026 attempts, is to let loose Daesh and other groups in Iraq and on the other side, start seizing Iranian oil tankers.

If I was a war planner, If the US attacks I would hit Israel and UAE and maybe Bahrain. I would do something that would completely baffle the Americans, I wouldn't hit their bases, not unless there is an all out war....then everything is game. Why? because Trump is one and done kind of guy, we've seen that, he doesn't want an all out war. So, we don't give him the reason.

 

[Immortals]

Hitting GCC energy terminals and Israel itself, that's the only play left in a war scenario.

That is tricky. Arabs (outside of UAE/Bahrain) are the only ones cautioning against strikes. To do real damage to oil markets you would need to hit Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and even neighbor Iraq. Not exactly a strategy to turn the entire Middle East against you.

Then that opens up to the U.S. hitting Kharg terminal and taking Iranian oil production down to zero. It’s a risky proposition in that the world will still have multiple avenues for oil, but Iran once its own production is stopped will have to tap into reserves and I doubt their strategic reserve is enough to keep the country running for more than a few weeks.

Personally I think the US won't go for full scale air campaign , I think the options to exercise now after failed June 2025 and Jan 2026 attempts, is to let loose Daesh and other groups in Iraq and on the other side, start seizing Iranian oil tankers.

The current state of Iran’s IADS is they don’t really have any answer for the F-22. You don’t need a large air campaign, but a few weeks of F-22 and F-35 doing key strikes on missile and strategic targets. It wouldn’t take long for US to establish enough dominance on Iran’s skies that it becomes a de facto no fly zone.

The game theory options on this don’t work. The strategy was Axis of Resistance, but they fed their allies to the wolves to survive for a few more months. Other than the Houthi’s there isn’t anyone rushing to help.

 

[ToddE]

The end game is either the Saddam-ifcation of Iran into a failed state or that IRGC will reimagine themselves and take over. You know how Trump has a soft spot for “strong powerful tough men” and he knows the IRGC are not Girl Scouts.

We routinely underestimate the West on here. This is the same group that went up against Hitler, Stalin, and Mao. Khamenai next to those 3 might as well be junior varsity.

Iran wouldn’t send its FM to beg on Fox News if it wasn’t looking for off ramps. You think Xi or Putin would be sending their FMs to Fox News if the enemy was at the gates?

Iranian leadership only know how to beat on Democrat Presidents like Biden, Obama, Clinton, or Carter. Against Bush they were meek. Against Trump 1st term they spoke loudly but they shot 1 drone and boasted, then Trump assassinated Solemani and they realized that republicans don’t play that game.

The Epstein files are so damaging to Republicans (and some democrats) and Trump that effectively the foreign policy of U.S. is now driven by Bibi with respect to the Middle East.

So the end game is Iran’s currency continues to go down the drain, iran continues to fall behind on key technologies related to AGI. No the internet has been shutdown for over 2 weeks. Iran looks more like North Korea these days than a normal country.

Your entire post rests on flawed idea that US actions come from Trumps aged up brain alone. Thats not how the world works. US has a deep state like any other country with factions influencing final outcomes i.e. policies otherwise had it been how you are describing the policy would be changing with every president but it never does. I can give examples from our own region where Dem-Obama era strategic posture of US still persists even though 3 presidencies of US have changed since then. Some strategist I think Mearschimer or someone said that bigger the money state has, more and more power factions emerge and the state is collective equilibrium of these factions. US is a hyper military power with no parallel in the world, if we go by such stupid logics, what is stopping trump from mass Tomohawking Iran, DPRK, Venezuela, Taliban leaderships right now ?

 

[kastor ville]

... if it can be used

unfortunately, Israel was able to exploit air superiority to precisely strike the entrances to these bases, rendering them unusable for most of the war.

Perhaps some planning has been done since the 12 day war....?

 

[kastor ville]

Of course both sides can be expected to fight as well as possible given every resource. That is why I also keep reminding the importance of diplomatic processes to avoid, reduce, or end such conflicts wherever possible.

No side can expect to get everything that it wants without giving up anything in return. Workable compromises usually lie somewhere in the middle, and it is up to the wisdom of leaders on both sides to make it possible.

I'm sorry if you had been paying attention you'd know, Trump and Netanyahu in office together is a perfect storm for Iran. There is nothing short of surrender, if we give up the enrichment, they will come for the missiles, if we give the missiles, then they will turn us into Syria.
If you want compromise, you have to first inflict damage, and you have to know that they will also damage you......much more even. But, if you do survive, the negotiating table would not be a lopsided table, they will give you respectful terms, otherwise, they will rape you, one way or another. Iran should know this.
If there is an attack, hit Israel, and hit UAE......mine the strait and keep firing those missiles for weeks if possible....the pressure of Asia and Europe will bring the US to the table. If we don't...well, we're still toast, albeit it will be slow death.

 

[kastor ville]

That is tricky. Arabs (outside of UAE/Bahrain) are the only ones cautioning against strikes. To do real damage to oil markets you would need to hit Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and even neighbor Iraq. Not exactly a strategy to turn the entire Middle East against you.

Then that opens up to the U.S. hitting Kharg terminal and taking Iranian oil production down to zero. It’s a risky proposition in that the world will still have multiple avenues for oil, but Iran once its own production is stopped will have to tap into reserves and I doubt their strategic reserve is enough to keep the country running for more than a few weeks.



The current state of Iran’s IADS is they don’t really have any answer for the F-22. You don’t need a large air campaign, but a few weeks of F-22 and F-35 doing key strikes on missile and strategic targets. It wouldn’t take long for US to establish enough dominance on Iran’s skies that it becomes a de facto no fly zone.

The game theory options on this don’t work. The strategy was Axis of Resistance, but they fed their allies to the wolves to survive for a few more months. Other than the Houthi’s there isn’t anyone rushing to help.

Bro, first rule of war.....know your enemy. Trump has 3 yrs to go....Netanyahu, no telling, they want you dead! Are you getting this?
There is no escape at this point.....I warned about this day, more than 8 yrs ago.....I wrote about this scenario of a slow economic death that would destabilize the country. I never dreamt that the US and Israel would team up and bomb us. In any case, they have shown you their hand.......they want your govt gone, no matter how many of you have to die to achieve that. If we come to terms with this, you then need to know, there is no way out without a bloody war......because the other option is surrender, do you think the SL and IRGC are going to surrender? Of course not~! So what's left to do? Inflict as much damage to the world energy trade as possible, I've said this many, many times......we can't inflict harm on the US, and only minor pain on Israel....but their Achille's Heel is the energy trade.......period....full stop!

 

[Immortals]

Your entire post rests on flawed idea that US actions come from Trumps aged up brain alone. Thats not how the world works. US has a deep state like any other country with factions influencing final outcomes i.e. policies otherwise had it been how you are describing the policy would be changing with every president but it never does.

It never does because Republicans are more tied to Israel than Iran is tied to Hezbollah. Democrats never have the political capital or spine to try to reset the status quo. Obama was the only one and he couldn’t get the system to buy in.

I said on here many times any nuclear deal needed to be done with a Republican president. If you don’t have Republicans on board for any deal then it’s effectively just a temporary agreement. Democrats don’t rule the U.S. It’s wealthy Jewish donors and scientists and officials and executives that have swayed the Republicans into their orbit permanently. And the Epstein files means Israel has so much dirt on key deep state officials that it’s effectively blackmailing the U.S.

US is a hyper military power with no parallel in the world, if we go by such stupid logics, what is stopping trump from mass Tomohawking Iran, DPRK, Venezuela, Taliban leaderships right now ?

A) North Korea has 10,000 artillery pieces aimed at Seoul. They can flatten it without firing a single nuke. But North Korea is not important to the Zionists nor does it have any value to US other than being on China’s border, which basically does by bases in South Korea. But the China game is for after Iran and Russia are effectively neutered.

B) Venezuela needs 250B+ invested over next 10 years just to raise oil production by 500,000 bpd. The oil companies have balked at Trump trying to send in them in for that. The current President of Venezuela was exposed in leaks saying that after Maduro was captured the entire cabinet was told if they wouldn’t play ball they would be killed.

C) Taliban? Really? What value does Afghanistan have for Zionists or US?


Iran is a gold mine for Israel and the West

#4 in oil reserves (at a low cost extraction unlike Venezuela oil)

#2 in natural gas reserve (both Europe and Israel will secure their energy needs till fusion reactors become viable)

$1T+ (minimum) in minerals and potential rare earth elements.

And most important of all you remove the last obstacle to Western and Zionist domination of the Middle East. The West then can began a major military pivot to Asia for the great power games. Russia is a decaying power and Putin won’t live forever. They will keep Russia contained until Putin dies in next 20 years then try to get one of their ‘Gorbachev’ to take power.

As I said, this is a timeline where 1% of the worlds population (Jews) have extensively burrowed into every country’s economic-socio-power structure, from US to England to Europe to Russia to UAE to Japan to South Korea. And Iran decided to pick a fight with these people.

Just as it’s hard for iran’s populous to get the government to give up on Hezbollah. It’s near impossible to get the western populous’ to turn their back on Zionists. You would need great depressionary like conditions and rioting in the streets across Europe and American to get such change.

That change may one day come, but it won’t come in time to save Iran.

 

[Immortals]

So what's left to do? Inflict as much damage to the world energy trade as possible, I've said this many, many times......we can't inflict harm on the US, and only minor pain on Israel....but their Achille's Heel is the energy trade.......period....full stop!

Houthi’s dropped Red Sea trade by more than 60% and the world hummed along, despite what people said on here.

The biggest producer of oil is the U.S. so times have changed from even 20 years ago. And Russia will gladly back stab Iran and flood the market with Russian oil. US will open its strategic reserves and so will EU. Getting oil to $150-200 is very difficult vs 2010.

But let’s say Iran does your plan. Then what? Do you think the U.S. is going to offer to remove sanctions on Iran after? Repair Iran’s economy? Let Iran have uranium enrichment?

This is exactly why nuclear weapons exist. If the day came when it was Berlin 1945, instead of doing suicide the leadership of Iran could declare mutual assured destruction. Although I got to say, I doubt Iran would have the guts to send nukes to either Israel or U.S. soil. But the risk they would, would be enough to give the enemy pause.

However, again even in such a scenario. Iran would not be attacked enough to feel the need to use nukes (last resort). But it remain under sanctions and economic blockade and effectively decay as a nation turning more in the NK or Cuba day by day until one day a Soviet Union type implosion.

As I said, the options here isn’t can Iran set fire to the Middle East. It’s what comes next after that? How does it get out of from sanctions? How does it get on the road to economic integration with the world?

No one here has the answer for that. I don’t think they do even in Tehran.

 

[kastor ville]

Houthi’s dropped Red Sea trade by more than 60% and the world hummed along, despite what people said on here.

The biggest producer of oil is the U.S. so times have changed from even 20 years ago. And Russia will gladly back stab Iran and flood the market with Russian oil. US will open its strategic reserves and so will EU. Getting oil to $150-200 is very difficult vs 2010.

But let’s say Iran does your plan. Then what? Do you think the U.S. is going to offer to remove sanctions on Iran after? Repair Iran’s economy? Let Iran have uranium enrichment?

This is exactly why nuclear weapons exist. If the day came when it was Berlin 1945, instead of doing suicide the leadership of Iran could declare mutual assured destruction. Although I got to say, I doubt Iran would have the guts to send nukes to either Israel or U.S. soil. But the risk they would, would be enough to give the enemy pause.

However, again even in such a scenario. Iran would not be attacked enough to feel the need to use nukes (last resort). But it remain under sanctions and economic blockade and effectively decay as a nation turning more in the NK or Cuba day by day until one day a Soviet Union type implosion.

As I said, the options here isn’t can Iran set fire to the Middle East. It’s what comes next after that? How does it get out of from sanctions? How does it get on the road to economic integration with the world?

No one here has the answer for that. I don’t think they do even in Tehran.

See as smart as you are, you don't know how everything works......
The Houthis hit ships carrying goods...there is no real register for that in the stock market.
Second, it doesn't matter how much oil you produce, if you're oil production is not state owned....your prices will go higher. Do you know why? Because it's called opportunity cost......I can sell that oil in Texas to Germany for 1.5 times the price.....that means even the oil in the US will rise. Are you getting it now?
It's one big market.......there is the Strategic Reserve, but that will last a few weeks....and they may not even release it to counter the shock. Trump doesn't care.
So, the first to feel the pain is China, Japan, and Korea...then all of Western Europe will go into crisis mode, it's winter there and they need all the gas and oil they can get.
After the second week their economies will start to feel the pain......they will get on the phone pressuring Trump, then you will see the papers printing, Iran wanted to negotiate but these idiots wanted maximum terms......they will start to question the president, the Sec of State, the Defense dept.....everyone!
This is how you fight a superpower.

I wish I could go back to the old PDF and bring out my old posts.......I predicted all of this...because I knew these ringkissers are amateurs, and they don't know what they're doing, and who they're dealing with....I remember how I ridiculed the "Look to the East" remarks of that old fool, it's no strategy, I asked what is the end game? How are you going to patch up the economy? The same questions you just asked......but 8-9 yrs earlier. The hardliner idiots didn't take heed, and here we are now.

So, I tell you again, it's too late......either full surrender or war. That's your 2 choices....the full surrender, means they have absolutely no incentive to let you get back inside the world economy. They'll have extracted what they need from you.
3 weeks ago, I said the crazy guy wins......I will say it again, since the idiots in Iran have squandered all the opportunities, there is only one way out..........Hit Israel, hit UAE, Mine the strait......and then brace for a lot of damage. Because there is no plan B.

 

[mangekyo]

As I said, the options here isn’t can Iran set fire to the Middle East. It’s what comes next after that? How does it get out of from sanctions? How does it get on the road to economic integration with the world?

No one here has the answer for that. I don’t think they do even in Tehran.

What’s the point of the revolution if we’re going to have sanctions lifted and do business with the U.S? If we go that path IRI will become at best a Temu version of shahs Iran.

IRI wanted to defeat Zionism. They came very close when soleimani put most of Middle East under Khameneis feet. I have to give them that. Really, they did exceptionally well. But it was a use it or lose it situation, they didn’t use it. Now they’ve lost it.

They need swallow their pride and shake hands with Trump. Offer him a deal that’s too good to decline. Netanyahu might have the Epstein files. But he’s not going to release them. The Epstein files are like a nuke. You only use them as a last resort.

 

[mangekyo]

See as smart as you are, you don't know how everything works......
The Houthis hit ships carrying goods...there is no real register for that in the stock market.
Second, it doesn't matter how much oil you produce, if you're oil production is not state owned....your prices will go higher. Do you know why? Because it's called opportunity cost......I can sell that oil in Texas to Germany for 1.5 times the price.....that means even the oil in the US will rise. Are you getting it now?
It's one big market.......there is the Strategic Reserve, but that will last a few weeks....and they may not even release it to counter the shock. Trump doesn't care.
So, the first to feel the pain is China, Japan, and Korea...then all of Western Europe will go into crisis mode, it's winter there and they need all the gas and oil they can get.
After the second week their economies will start to feel the pain......they will get on the phone pressuring Trump, then you will see the papers printing, Iran wanted to negotiate but these idiots wanted maximum terms......they will start to question the president, the Sec of State, the Defense dept.....everyone!
This is how you fight a superpower.

I wish I could go back to the old PDF and bring out my old posts.......I predicted all of this...because I knew these ringkissers are amateurs, and they don't know what they're doing, and who they're dealing with....I remember how I ridiculed the "Look to the East" remarks of that old fool, it's no strategy, I asked what is the end game? How are you going to patch up the economy? The same questions you just asked......but 8-9 yrs earlier. The hardliner idiots didn't take heed, and here we are now.

So, I tell you again, it's too late......either full surrender or war. That's your 2 choices....the full surrender, means they have absolutely no incentive to let you get back inside the world economy. They'll have extracted what they need from you.
3 weeks ago, I said the crazy guy wins......I will say it again, since the idiots in Iran have squandered all the opportunities, there is only one way out..........Hit Israel, hit UAE, Mine the strait......and then brace for a lot of damage. Because there is no plan B.

The problem with your plan is that there is no plan B. If it doesn’t work, you’re cooked. You need to have a plan B

 

[ToddE]

It never does because Republicans are more tied to Israel than Iran is tied to Hezbollah. Democrats never have the political capital or spine to try to reset the status quo. Obama was the only one and he couldn’t get the system to buy in.

You are practicing presentism here because it suits the narrative of Republicans bad and dems good. Democrats are as Jew controlled as Republicans. Have always been. You are an american I hope you know dems were known as corporate controlled party back in 70s-80s. They transformed into leftists only under clintons. Clintons were clients of Epstein, would be foolish to think they were not being blackmailed by Mossad. Remember Obama and Biden provided Israel with highest order military equipment. What about AIPAC controlled characters like Fetterman, Hakeem Jefferies etc that do not even hide who owns them ? ... Dems and Republicans are two sides of same coin.

I said on here many times any nuclear deal needed to be done with a Republican president. If you don’t have Republicans on board for any deal then it’s effectively just a temporary agreement. Democrats don’t rule the U.S. It’s wealthy Jewish donors and scientists and officials and executives that have swayed the Republicans into their orbit permanently. And the Epstein files means Israel has so much dirt on key deep state officials that it’s effectively blackmailing the U.S.

Any nuclear deal means Jack. Khamenei and his croonies are slow learners. Nobody in their entire history has handed over national security to enemies the way Khamenei did when he decided to allow Ahmadinejad to threaten annhilation of Israel 24/7. That was done to create a bargaining chip against west because IRI had served its purpose by Khatami era and was no longer relevant internally or externally. Ayatollahs played with fire.

Any deal with a democrat or a republican means you have already handed over your national security at strategic level to the enemy.

A) North Korea has 10,000 artillery pieces aimed at Seoul. They can flatten it without firing a single nuke. But North Korea is not important to the Zionists nor does it have any value to US other than being on China’s border, which basically does by bases in South Korea. But the China game is for after Iran and Russia are effectively neutered.

IRGC has thousands of missiles aimed at Petro of Petro-USD, Israel and US bases ... whats the point? DPRK cant threaten any such conventional destruction. Its GDP is less than half of Tehrans GDP or quarter of sanctioned IRI's trade surplus just last year.

B) Venezuela needs 250B+ invested over next 10 years just to raise oil production by 500,000 bpd. The oil companies have balked at Trump trying to send in them in for that. The current President of Venezuela was exposed in leaks saying that after Maduro was captured the entire cabinet was told if they wouldn’t play ball they would be killed.

This would mean something when venezuelan oil actually reaches Texan Refinaries. So far none has. You know how many tankers have left for china from same coast since Maduro theatrics ? number is in dozens. Also do not forget venzuelan oil is Russian owned, they can literally file a case against US in ICJ for theft if coast gaurds try to kidnap the tankers. Thats not the Russian style but so far what has Trump achieved in Venezuela ?

C) Taliban? Really? What value does Afghanistan have for Zionists or US?

Give a read to REM mines of Afghanistan some time. You will know what value Afghanistan has for west and China which is already there excavating.

Iran is a gold mine for Israel and the West

#4 in oil reserves (at a low cost extraction unlike Venezuela oil)

#2 in natural gas reserve (both Europe and Israel will secure their energy needs till fusion reactors become viable)

$1T+ (minimum) in minerals and potential rare earth elements.

And most important of all you remove the last obstacle to Western and Zionist domination of the Middle East. The West then can began a major military pivot to Asia for the great power games. Russia is a decaying power and Putin won’t live forever. They will keep Russia contained until Putin dies in next 20 years then try to get one of their ‘Gorbachev’ to take power.

As I said, this is a timeline where 1% of the worlds population (Jews) have extensively burrowed into every country’s economic-socio-power structure, from US to England to Europe to Russia to UAE to Japan to South Korea. And Iran decided to pick a fight with these people.

Just as it’s hard for iran’s populous to get the government to give up on Hezbollah. It’s near impossible to get the western populous’ to turn their back on Zionists. You would need great depressionary like conditions and rioting in the streets across Europe and American to get such change.

That change may one day come, but it won’t come in time to save Iran.

Not sure what you are trying to prove here because world knows Jews control west socio-economically and by extension of debt and trade almost the entire globe. Entire Islamic world is controlled by them except IRI (no debt, no trade) which is why its a problem.

My actual point is still standing that US is not Trump or Biden or Obama. They have a deep state and that deep state makes policies that sustain for decades. They dont change despite presidencies going through dems and republicans. Same Syrian civil war model that Obama-H Clinton started for a mere oil and gas pipeline is still being practiced by Trump.

 

[kastor ville]

These mofos are in here reading our posts.

US could impose blockade on Iran instead of strikes | The Jerusalem Post

At the same time, both Citrinowicz and Hulata believe that an Iranian response targeting Israel is not inevitable should the US attack the regime.

www.jpost.com

 

[ToddE]

Few diaspora Iranians (not all) have immense level of self hatred which makes them go irrational.

 

[ToddE]

These mofos are in here reading our posts.

US could impose blockade on Iran instead of strikes | The Jerusalem Post

At the same time, both Citrinowicz and Hulata believe that an Iranian response targeting Israel is not inevitable should the US attack the regime.

www.jpost.com

Told ya. Every single outcome matches what I was writing before. This is about mass oil to China (IRI-Russia-PRC plan for replacing petro USD). This is also about Iranian meddling in Iraq and Syria (Maliki's return as PM, Moqtada threatening Jewlani). Its still theatrics and will maximum go to cosmetic exchange at best.