PAF J-10CE News, Updates and Discussion

[studsmart]

The other point I want to make is how PAF has higher availability rates of more modern and effective platform sis compared to Indians Against Flying (IAF) is


The numbers here are assumptions
# Pakistan Air Force Fighter Availability (Assumption-Based)

Type | Inventory | Availability % | Estimated Available
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
J-10C | 36 | 90% | 32
JF-17 Block 3 | 30 | 90% | 27
JF-17 Block 1/2 | 120 | 75% | 90
F-16A/B/C/D | 75 | 75% | 56
F-7PG | 54 | 70% | 38
Mirage III/5 | 150 | 60% | 90
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Fighters | 465 | — | 333

While for India I am quoting reports presented in Indian parliament and press where IAF avaibilty rates were capped at 55%

# Indian Air Force Fighter Availability (Assumed Model)

Type | Inventory | Availability % | Estimated Available
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Su-30MKI | 259 | 55% | 142
MiG-29 / UPG | 52 | 37% | 19
Mirage 2000I/TI | 49 | 75% | 37
SEPECAT Jaguar | 26 | 50% | 13
HAL Tejas Mk1 (FOC) | 16 | 55% | 9
Dassault Rafale | 32 | 90% | 29
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Fighters | 434 | — | 248

I included the 4 confirmed Rafael losses. In my estimate and did not reduce su-30, mirage or MIg -29 numbers .

All this is based on Indian sources and the Indian parliamentary report stating availability rates of 55% across the fleet.

What this means is Pakistan has a more modern and capable fleet available for war with India. This is why Indian is investing more in static defenses and longer ranged land based cruise missiles.

kV

in all scenarios i have done, changing few numbers adding sam's , aewcs, EW/ elinit, in a 2 weeks conflict (if happen today)PAF comes on top but IAF is not totally decimated. That only happen when PAF adds 60 J35A. With J35A PAF will be able to repeat what we saw on may 7th for 10 straight days [ 2weeks appx ]. and PAF gain total air superiority over IHK. that gives ground forces to move in Day 2. This is what is scaring Indian planners big time.

 

[Oscar]

Sorry but IAF Mirage 2000 has the same availability as our block 3s??

They’re well maintained generally since they (until the Rafales) were the cornerstone of their precision strike capability

 

[rafale]

in all scenarios i have done, changing few numbers adding sam's , aewcs, EW/ elinit, in a 2 weeks conflict (if happen today)PAF comes on top but IAF is not totally decimated. That only happen when PAF adds 60 J35A. With J35A PAF will be able to repeat what we saw on may 7th for 10 straight days [ 2weeks appx ]. and PAF gain total air superiority over IHK. that gives ground forces to move in Day 2. This is what is scaring Indian planners big time.

I think better than having 60 J-35s would be to have 2 squadrons of J-35s and 1 full squadron of dedicated strike 5th Gen aircraft.........air superiority is not enough, you need to beat the pulp out of their airbases and AD layers.

But again, as funds permit.....

Also in your assumption of 2 weeks conflict, with aircraft flying constantly, you will have availability % drop too........

 

[studsmart]

I think better than having 60 J-35s would be to have 2 squadrons of J-35s and 1 full squadron of dedicated strike 5th Gen aircraft.........air superiority is not enough, you need to beat the pulp out of their airbases and AD layers.

But again, as funds permit.....

Also in your assumption of 2 weeks conflict, with aircraft flying constantly, you will have availability % drop too........

That is correct and it is accounted for. I did my modeling many times in the last 1 month, and also added s400, hq9b , hq16fe, and others .... i am fairly convince that IAF is not coming back for some time or else they will have their **s wiped pretty badly

 

[Tariq Habib Afridi]

Let's discuss the fantasy threats of Astra Mark bla bla bla when they actually get to fire them.........till then lets not dignify their BS weapons programs that have yet to yield real world results.

The only strikes they were able to push through during May were all either Russian (Brahmos) or SCALP (French/Euro).

Thats why i said indians claimed. What are their ranges and how accurate are they ? I do not commented on it. However, when you start indegenous that is what is concerning. Lets say astra 1 has 60km range and is not very effective as seeker may not be of the quality. But indegenization/self production is a thing to be concerned. If not today or maybe not in the near future but one day they will improve and start producing inside india that is what pakistan should be concerned about.

But coming to the topic? did we get further J-10P or not? after the initial 20?

 

[Khanviletey]

in all scenarios i have done, changing few numbers adding sam's , aewcs, EW/ elinit, in a 2 weeks conflict (if happen today)PAF comes on top but IAF is not totally decimated. That only happen when PAF adds 60 J35A. With J35A PAF will be able to repeat what we saw on may 7th for 10 straight days [ 2weeks appx ]. and PAF gain total air superiority over IHK. that gives ground forces to move in Day 2. This is what is scaring Indian planners big time.

Depends on what you are modeling,

I have modeled 1 month , 3 month and 6 month models

China joins the Frey after 1 month of armed conflict .

I added a ground force with mission

objective
1) take 50-100% of Kashmir and sir creek ,

2) China takes all contested territory from india

I projected this conflict starting September 2027 or march 2028

The naval arm would have objective, keep sea lines open and deny India forces any support from the sea, force India , I modeled escort of Indian shipping in the Arabian Sea and 4 new Chinese sub in Pakistani inventory are

in all scenarios i have done, changing few numbers adding sam's , aewcs, EW/ elinit, in a 2 weeks conflict (if happen today)PAF comes on top but IAF is not totally decimated. That only happen when PAF adds 60 J35A. With J35A PAF will be able to repeat what we saw on may 7th for 10 straight days [ 2weeks appx ]. and PAF gain total air superiority over IHK. that gives ground forces to move in Day 2. This is what is scaring Indian planners big time.

i ran similar scenarios with similar results ,

I will post my scenario for you to critique

 

[SaadH]

Astra mk1 110km claimed and astra mk2 which is still not produced is claimed by indians somewhat between 160 to 200km range

It is one thing to claim theoretical ranges and another altogether in actual performance, especially given that Indian AAM pedigree is most likely of Russian origin and latter AAM's were and are notoriously non-performing and highly unreliable.

 

[Oscar]

Astra mk1 110km claimed and astra mk2 which is still not produced is claimed by indians somewhat between 160 to 200km range

They likely have those ranges at best performance but keep this in mind. Supposedly the Astra had been in good production prior to Sindoor but all of their MKIs either flew with the Derby or R-27 variants. They willingly chose not to put Astra in the air even though they claimed serial production and the MKi is the platform they tested full integration with.

The Derby btw is what they supposedly bought in emergency for "rapid" integration with the MKi post 2019.

So if we take that as their ability to integrate - I would not worry endless about the Astra Mk2 for another 6 years unless there is some actual effort to change the IAF and Indian culture in general - but they have surprised the world before so never say never.

 

[rafale]

They likely have those ranges at best performance but keep this in mind. Supposedly the Astra had been in good production prior to Sindoor but all of their MKIs either flew with the Derby or R-27 variants. They willingly chose not to put Astra in the air even though they claimed serial production and the MKi is the platform they tested full integration with.

The Derby btw is what they supposedly bought in emergency for "rapid" integration with the MKi post 2019.

So if we take that as their ability to integrate - I would not worry endless about the Astra Mk2 for another 6 years unless there is some actual effort to change the IAF and Indian culture in general - but they have surprised the world before so never say never.

What are they gonna use to ensure reliable guidance all the way upto 200km? That is the big question and what ability and tactics they have to form a reliable kill chain.

Most of the Indians are paper brochure analysts........and their mindset still seems to be stuck in the same limbo. Considering the latest tirade of cow shit level talks by their CAS recently, it seems they are again willing to buy this buy that and not put effort in tactics and learning and development.

I am sorry, but Pissraelis can't help here, because Pissraelis have themselves never dealt with a well trained enemy like PAF. All they have is tactics for beating down Syrians, Iraqis, Iranians (using F-35s) with little to not much actual threat. But sure, them pesky jews will be more than happy fleece the bhindians by selling this SAM or that Missile.

PL15 at 200km+ (Tested and combat proven) ranges ensures IAF will not be able to use much to strike other than the longer range SCALP or Brahmos. Spice, Hammer and all won't help here. PL16 or 17 again push their launch envelope further back. I mean look at the size of PL17.......that thing is not an AA missile but a freaking anti ship torpedo flying at Mach 2

PAF has a good 4-5 years to procure new systems where needed.

 

[Shui]

What are they gonna use to ensure reliable guidance all the way upto 200km? That is the big question and what ability and tactics they have to form a reliable kill chain.

Most of the Indians are paper brochure analysts........and their mindset still seems to be stuck in the same limbo. Considering the latest tirade of cow shit level talks by their CAS recently, it seems they are again willing to buy this buy that and not put effort in tactics and learning and development.

I am sorry, but Pissraelis can't help here, because Pissraelis have themselves never dealt with a well trained enemy like PAF. All they have is tactics for beating down Syrians, Iraqis, Iranians (using F-35s) with little to not much actual threat. But sure, them pesky jews will be more than happy fleece the bhindians by selling this SAM or that Missile.

PL15 at 200km+ (Tested and combat proven) ranges ensures IAF will not be able to use much to strike other than the longer range SCALP or Brahmos. Spice, Hammer and all won't help here. PL16 or 17 again push their launch envelope further back. I mean look at the size of PL17.......that thing is not an AA missile but a freaking anti ship torpedo flying at Mach 2

PAF has a good 4-5 years to procure new systems where needed.

PL-17 is meant for large aerial assets like AWEC, EW aircraft etc.

 

[rafale]

PL-17 is meant for large aerial assets like AWEC, EW aircraft etc.

What's the AA missile available then, from China, which is for 300-400km range kills of fighter sized targets?

 

[MirageV3ff]

What's the AA missile available then, from China, which is for 300-400km range kills of fighter sized targets?

I'm guessing it's either PL-21 or PL-16. @Deino can comment better on this

 

[Shui]

What's the AA missile available then, from China, which is for 300-400km range kills of fighter sized targets?

From what I have read somewhere, it's definitely not PL-16, PL-16 is a smaller aam covering roles of both dogfight missile and bvr missile and ofc enhanced other feature as well, with range similar to PL-15 , because in the future aerial engagement with LO and ULO aerial jets, just increasing range isn't going to work most of the time.

For eg, during one of the Guancha podcast after last Sep parade, they mentioned the highly autonomous unmanned jets went against J-20 and scored kills wvr, but ofc, that's purely a scenario of jet against jet, but even with the helps from other assets, it's unlikely to track and fire the shot against fifth gen let alone sixth from 300-400KM, most likely around two hundred that too with strong support.

 

[rafale]

I'm guessing it's either PL-21 or PL-16. @Deino can comment better on this

PL-16 is foldable fins/smaller size optimized for internal carrying in J-35s/J-20s.

With change in propellant, maybe they can extract 30% more range maximum from what PL15 can offer......so a new design would be needed for 300-400km range.....which i am pretty sure chinese have or are working on it already.

 

[ghazi52]

Dragon Riders..