Operation Ghazab Lil Haq (Pakistan - Afghanistan War)

Blain2 said:
There is no "paralysis". Action is being taken. What we don't know is the right quantum.

That will require calibration.
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The Taliban are not doing a cost benefit analysis on the size of the airstrike. They are doing a cost benefit analysis on the probability of our response. Right now, because of our visible restraint, they calculate the probability of severe punishment as low. They believe they can absorb the 'quantum' of force we are willing to dispense because they know we are terrified of closing the door.

You want to raise the cost? Then shift the quantum from intensity to certainty. The most terrifying deterrent wont be the most powerful bomb. it would be the most predictable trigger. If the Taliban knew with absolute certainty that any cross border attack traced to Afghan soil would result in the immediate, public, and devastating destruction of a high value Taliban military asset (not just a TTP camp), the calculus would shift overnight.

We need to start calibrating the speed of the reflex. Let them see that the moment a Pakistani checkpoint burns, an Afghan HQ or a compound or infrastructure ceases to exist. That is a quantum they will understand.
 
SteppeWolff said:
The Taliban are not doing a cost benefit analysis on the size of the airstrike. They are doing a cost benefit analysis on the probability of our response. Right now, because of our visible restraint, they calculate the probability of severe punishment as low. They believe they can absorb the 'quantum' of force we are willing to dispense because they know we are terrified of closing the door.

You want to raise the cost? Then shift the quantum from intensity to certainty. The most terrifying deterrent wont be the most powerful bomb. it would be the most predictable trigger. If the Taliban knew with absolute certainty that any cross border attack traced to Afghan soil would result in the immediate, public, and devastating destruction of a high value Taliban military asset (not just a TTP camp), the calculus would shift overnight.

We need to start calibrating the speed of the reflex. Let them see that the moment a Pakistani checkpoint burns, an Afghan HQ or a compound or infrastructure ceases to exist. That is a quantum they will understand.
Click to expand...
Blain2 said:
Actually it needs to be the QPQ+ formula used with India to set the right level of deterrence with the Taliban in Kabul.

TTP is a fringe element inside of Afghanistan, so most Afghans don't see them. If Pakistan reacts more powerfully, it will cause people in Afghanistan to see the costs being inflicted by their state policy and may lead people to start asking questions as to why such strikes are happening. That may put added pressure on the Taliban.
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Blain2 said:
Actually it needs to be the QPQ+ formula used with India to set the right level of deterrence with the Taliban in Kabul.

TTP is a fringe element inside of Afghanistan, so most Afghans don't see them. If Pakistan reacts more powerfully, it will cause people in Afghanistan to see the costs being inflicted by their state policy and may lead people to start asking questions as to why such strikes are happening. That may put added pressure on the Taliban.
Click to expand...
At the moment the response is being given only at a senior level casualty or a large attack. This is providing a space for them to operate under a clear threshold. This is an unacceptable policy.
 
SteppeWolff said:
The Taliban are not doing a cost benefit analysis on the size of the airstrike. They are doing a cost benefit analysis on the probability of our response. Right now, because of our visible restraint, they calculate the probability of severe punishment as low. They believe they can absorb the 'quantum' of force we are willing to dispense because they know we are terrified of closing the door.

You want to raise the cost? Then shift the quantum from intensity to certainty. The most terrifying deterrent wont be the most powerful bomb. it would be the most predictable trigger. If the Taliban knew with absolute certainty that any cross border attack traced to Afghan soil would result in the immediate, public, and devastating destruction of a high value Taliban military asset (not just a TTP camp), the calculus would shift overnight.

We need to start calibrating the speed of the reflex. Let them see that the moment a Pakistani checkpoint burns, an Afghan HQ or a compound or infrastructure ceases to exist. That is a quantum they will understand.
Click to expand...
Yes, in general I am in agreement that the costs for them have to be raised. If you go back on this forum to the last round with Kabul, I had suggested that any attack by TTP inside Pakistan should be considered an attack by Kabul and Pakistan should hit back directly inside mainland Afghanistan.

So when they are directing their proxies in TTP, they understand the massive costs associated with any attack inside of Pakistan.

I think we will see things moving in that direction.
 
Every attack impacts your foreign investment.

They know that and so does India. This is why India pays them.

This is why Balochistan gets extra attention.

You need to bomb them so hard they spend their days crying for mercy on Al Jazeera. This is the only way to put a stop to this madness.

You cannot become economically strong when bombs are going off all the time.
 
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Blain2 said:
There is no "paralysis". Action is being taken. What we don't know is the right quantum.

That will require calibration.

I share with you the sentiment that cost has to be raised.
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There is 100% a paralysis.

Pakistan lacks domestic approval in its warfighting clarity against Afghans. 1 major section of its population (Punjabis) view them as their "Muslim brothers" hence practically worship the ground they walk, the other major section (Pashtuns) see them as their ethnic kin and do not support any serious efforts, majority speaking.

The latter literally dominate the same region where fighting would take place which could cause problems domestically if they stand against federal actions.
 
Blain2 said:
There is no "paralysis". Action is being taken. What we don't know is the right quantum.

That will require calibration.

I share with you the sentiment that cost has to be raised.
Click to expand...

There is no action, just isolated reactions.

Regime change in KP and buffer zone in Afghanistan now until there is atleast 2 years of no bomb blasts.

Raise 300k more troops if you have to. Cover the entire region with ISI operatives. Hire death squads that hunt taliban. And for God sake crater Bagram.

Turkey are already planning on creating a buffer zone in Iran. This is how countries that take their security seriously operate. Not this chest thumping with the occasional F sola flyby.
 
Rational Philosopher said:
There is 100% a paralysis.

Pakistan lacks domestic approval in its warfighting clarity against Afghans. 1 major section of its population (Punjabis) view them as their "Muslim brothers" hence practically worship the ground they walk, the other major section (Pashtuns) see them as their ethnic kin and do not support any serious efforts, majority speaking.

The latter literally dominate the same region where fighting would take place which could cause problems domestically if they stand against federal actions.
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This is a very complex situation and arguable more difficult than any clash with India. It's not a simple jets in the air and repulse Indian planes.

You need a deep understanding of regional demographics, their pscyhology and comprehensive plan to degrade enemy networks and ideologies.

I think a major starting point would be a morale breaking strike that causes confusion or panic in Afghanistan, something like taking out their supreme leader in his cave which would weaken the perception of them being a government that will last.
 
Rational Philosopher said:
Pakistan lacks domestic approval in its warfighting clarity against Afghans. 1 major section of its population (Punjabis) view them as their "Muslim brothers" hence practically worship the ground they walk, the other major section (Pashtuns) see them as their ethnic kin and do not support any serious efforts, majority speaking.
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Well Pakistani government has been clear that its not fighting Afghans nor the interim Afghan government. They are only targeting Pakistani terrorists who have found refuge in Afghanistan owing to lack of capacity or political will part Afghan government to stop letting Afghan soil being a launchpad of terrorism in Pakistan.
 
El Sidd said:
Why don't you contemplate what an average Uzbek/Tajik would do to you an Hyderabadi Arab? You would be wishing for Pashtun Afghan before the first hour.

The most hardcore Pashtun Afghan is a below average Uzbek/Tajik when it comes to barbarity.

Stop plunging Pakistan in every Abbu project.
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Wtf kinda stereotyping is that on Uzbeks?
 
Distant_Observer said:
There is no action, just isolated reactions.

Regime change in KP and buffer zone in Afghanistan now until there is atleast 2 years of no bomb blasts.
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I think I asked you the same question before as well.

Regime change in Balochistan as well? So PTI is no hindrance over there? Before PTI there was no terrorism?

Boiling down such a situation into remove PTI and problem solved is an equally stupid statement as those from the other side of the aisle jin ko fauj ki har cheez main koi masla nazr ata hai.

I don't know man, have we all lost our collective marbles and ability to think critically and appreciate the nuance?

Well we are on a public forum, not a Harvard think tank...so I guess yeah.
Distant_Observer said:
Hire death squads that hunt taliban.
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Oh great, another killing group which we will fund and prop up, only to bite us in the butt 10 years later.
 
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