Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[mulj]

2020 Iranian missiles were assumed to have high accuracy from the Al-Assad attack

2023-2024, it was shown that Iranian missiles are vulnerable to space tracking assets and statistically their accuracy and QA issue meant that you would have to fire many to score direct hits. But the more you have to fire at once, the easier it is to detect by the enemy’s.

This is not a sustainable deterrence because Iran would need tens of thousands of LR missiles to be able to fight Israel/US who can use CMs and PGMs instead. So just as Israel has an interceptor supply issue, Iran has a missile production/dispersion issue.

This is one reason why instead of producing 15 different sub sonic drones, Iran should have focused on a building supersonic high altitude bomber drone that can drop PGMs and enter and exit enemy airspace quickly.

Because relying only on missiles and slow drones to hit your opponents is not a strategy that works in a conflict that lasts longer than a few weeks.

Well, lets see will chinese help about target management would be real, that change equation fundamentally even with flaws you described.
At the end Iran can afford everything except falling and that is were i would drain optimism, from strategic point of view Iran chance is would be destroying usa forward bases and closing gulf straits after that could move battle closer to Iran for which you should be better prepared and could preserve some strategic missiles for later stages. In essence bigger regional chaos more leverage for you.

 

[mulj]

When you fire 600 missiles in TP III, but your success rate is less than 20% and of those 20%, you hardly hit anything of strategic value to the Israeli war machine, you lose your deterrence completely.

Even 3,000 missiles is a large stockpile for a middle power like Iran.

It had been stated, times and times again, that MRBMs are not meant to be taken as the main offensive tool in your military strategy. MRBMs with only inertial navigation and ring-laser gyroscopes will not be able to reach a CEP better than 50-100m. Iran needed satellite navigation but Iran's space program was halted in 2013. Another wonderful concession to get that damn JCPOA signed.

This is why global powers do not count on MRBMs for offense and still maintain large air forces. To equalize the capability of a modern air force like the IAF, I once calculated that Iran needed well over 50,000 MRBMs with satnav, and Iran never even got close to that number. And my assumption was that our success rate would be 50%. With 20% success rate, Iran needed over 100,000 MRBMs!

What can i say, you work with what you have, it is discussed who knows how many times about specifics and disadvantages of chosen approach, now all you can do is to buckle up and be consistent and persistent, those two are winning wars along logistic and human sacrifices.

 

[aerospace_enthusiast_newb]

This is one reason why instead of producing 15 different sub sonic drones, Iran should have focused on a building supersonic high altitude bomber drone that can drop PGMs and enter and exit enemy airspace quickly.

Under no circumstances would Iran be able to build a "supersonic high altitude bomber" that can penetrate Israeli airspace, drop PGMs and exit.

 

[kastor ville]

Not even after 2016?
Anybody with average IQ could've predicted that Trump would return to the White House after 4 super bad years of having Biden and Kamala Harris in the office.

When Biden won the presidential election in 2018, I remember I insisted that it was a God given opportunity to prepare for the war when Trump returns to the office. I insisted we had to build the bomb and improve our military by investing hugely in air force and air defense.

People here really thought Iran was some world-class military with hypersonic missiles with pin-point accuracy without sat navigation. lol

I just saw your edit. What happened to Rial after the agreement? Nothing! It didn't appreciate against USD at all.
In fact, when Rohani took the office, 1 USD was nearly 3,600 IRT and when he left the office after the JCPOA, 1 USD was nearly 30,000 IRT. Stop blaming it on the hardliners. Rohani and Zarif weren't any better either.

No they didn't....they didn't know about Elon Musk, with his algo.....they didn't see the hate Dems had for the party over Gaza. They didn't know how lukewarm people were against another underqualified woman as the presidential candidate.
Why do think that is? Because the entire democratic party leadership is run by Jews....the Republican party is run by whites bankrolled by Jews. So, they orchestrated it. They were going to run Biden again, but during the debate he fuked up the Dems chances......when they panicked and picked Kamala without even putting it to a vote...it was then we found out , holy crap Trump will win again.

PS: the stupid Dems biggest mistake was when they said they wanted to tax unrealized gain....for you non financial people, when you sell an investment, you're taxed on the profit.......but not until you sell it, some dumb sobs wanted to tax the rich by saying we will tax them on how big their gains are, even if they haven't cashed out. this caused the biggest mobilization of rich people against the Dems....why do think Elon got involved....freedom? Democracy? Lol, don't make me laugh. He got involved because the SOB doesn't pay taxes.....he borrow money against his stock, so he sells very few shares. Then the borrowed money is used to offset even more taxes, because he has to pay interest on the borrowed billions...so he gets a tax refund.

 

[kastor ville]

Anyone that has read a history book wasn’t suprised. I knew he was going to win. Same way a comedian became president of Ukraine and started a war on Russia. Same way a painter became a Fuhrer and started a world war.

It’s called populism. During waves of populism, outside candidates are elected due to grievances against the system and the way of life.

1000% wrong....you don't have a clue. You don't even live here, and you're not plugged in to US politics like some of us.
Don't revise history........

 

[SolarWarden]

It would've made no difference in the outcome though.
Had Iran not retaliated then, they would've still hit us harder each time because they would've concluded that we weren't able to retaliate.

This is assuming that they didn't have intel on our missile technology, which is wrong in my opinion.

If anything Iranian retaliation made Israel want to take out strategic and economic targets but was told no by US. Iran pretty much launched all and targeted IAF bases and other IDF bases and yet weren't able to slow Israeli attacks except at the end when IAF fighters were starting to have down time for maintenance. Conventional ballistic missiles suck when it comes to trying to hit and put bases out of action. They lack accuracy, the punch and reliability to make through ballistic missile defenses. Fighters with 2000lb JDAMS are greater threat to military bases than ballistic missiles.

 

[kastor ville]

The Russians very likely know already when the Americans and Israelis are going to attack Iran but they won't disclose this information to Tehran. They're absolutely unreliable as partners and explicitly pro Israel.

I disagree, Putin is not pro Israeli....he knows the US govt is run by them. He plays a good chess game, what can iran do for him....nothing, the Israelis are always promising him something for his help.
He has zero love for Jews. I know...my wife is Ukrainian and Russian....I've seen it, I've heard it....most of their Jews are here in the US or Europe.

example:

Inside the secret Jerusalem compound battle tying Putin, Netanyahu and fears of Russian espionage

A historic compound in Jerusalem’s Old City has become the focus of quiet talks led by the Prime Minister’s Office, as Russia presses Israel to honor an alleged pledge made after Naama Issachar’s release and critics warn of intelligence risks

www.ynetnews.com

Putin played double game with Israel over Syria, Trump's former national security advisor says

HR McMaster says he convinced Donald Trump to delay moving US embassy to Jerusalem to extract 'concessions' from Israel

www.middleeasteye.net

 

[Immortals]

No they didn't....they didn't know about Elon Musk, with his algo.....they didn't see the hate Dems had for the party over Gaza. They didn't know how lukewarm people were against another underqualified woman as the presidential candidate.
Why do think that is? Because the entire democratic party leadership is run by Jews....the Republican party is run by whites bankrolled by Jews. So, they orchestrated it. They were going to run Biden again, but during the debate he fuked up the Dems chances......when they panicked and picked Kamala without even putting it to a vote...it was then we found out , holy crap Trump will win again.

PS: the stupid Dems biggest mistake was when they said they wanted to tax unrealized gain....for you non financial people, when you sell an investment, you're taxed on the profit.......but not until you sell it, some dumb sobs wanted to tax the rich by saying we will tax them on how big their gains are, even if they haven't cashed out. this caused the biggest mobilization of rich people against the Dems....why do think Elon got involved....freedom? Democracy? Lol, don't make me laugh. He got involved because the SOB doesn't pay taxes.....he borrow money against his stock, so he sells very few shares. Then the borrowed money is used to offset even more taxes, because he has to pay interest on the billions...so he gets a tax refund.

The fact you cannot see why a White Old Man beat a Black/Indian woman and need to point to all these elaborate schemes is just perplexing.

It’s quite simple, America is not ready for a female president. They weren’t ready for a WHITE female president from a prominent American family whose husband many American view favorablely (Bill Clinton). So why would they elect a black woman who many viewed as inexperienced and an air head?

Because Democrats have an obsession with pushing woke candidate and woke policies in an era where the voter base cares more about the economy and prosperity.

Half the country is moderate to moderate conservative (especially rural areas) and yet Democrats keep thinking liberal woke policies and socialist policies will get them the minority vote to overcome the conservatives. Time and time again the Hispanic vote has gone Republican because they come from countries where socialism lead to disaster (Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, etc)

Now let’s see who they roll out in 2028. If it’s Newsom they have a chance, if it’s another woke candidate then their only hope is for Trump to **** up the economy before the elections so they win that way.

 

[Persian Gulf]

hard to fathom that Iran still hasn't left the NPT after threatening to do this many times before the June war

and despite that the UN sanctions have still snapped back into effect

and there is no enrichment in Iran today

and the US is still about to launch a war against Iran

another typical Iranian bluff with terrible consequences

 

[kastor ville]

The fact you cannot see why a White Old Man beat a Black/Indian woman and need to point to all these elaborate schemes is just perplexing.

It’s quite simple, America is not ready for a female president. They weren’t ready for a WHITE female president from a prominent American family whose husband many American view favorablely (Bill Clinton). So why would they elect a black woman who many viewed as inexperienced and an air head?

Because Democrats have an obsession with pushing woke candidate and woke policies in an era where the voter base cares more about the economy and prosperity.

Half the country is moderate to moderate conservative (especially rural areas) and yet Democrats keep thinking liberal woke policies and socialist policies will get them the minority vote to overcome the conservatives. Time and time again the Hispanic vote has gone Republican because they come from countries where socialism lead to disaster (Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, etc)

Now let’s see who they roll out in 2028. If it’s Newsom they have a chance, if it’s another woke candidate then their only hope is for Trump to **** up the economy before the elections so they win that way.

Half right...... Do you know why only half? Because the woke agenda is a Hollywood agenda.....and who runs Hollywood? Yep.....
And you don't have to tell me that the United States is racist and misogynists.... I already figured it out.
And I'm going to prove you wrong again., Newsome will kick Marco Rubio or JD Vance's ass in 2028.

 

[Persian Gulf]

in May 2025, General Salami (former head of IRGC) said Iran had, in the recent weeks, "achieved a major and remarkable breakthrough in the field of defence capabilities [...] it will be revealed in action. But know this: the balance of power has changed"

he was killed by Israel the next month and no such super weapon was ever seen.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Omani Foreign Minister to the American CBS channel:

Omani FM Badr Albusaidi stated Iran agreed to never have bomb-making nuclear material via zero stockpiling: existing enriched uranium would be downblended to natural levels, converted to irreversible fuel, plus full IAEA verification and access. He called it a new breakthrough and said a peace deal is "within our reach" after substantial progress. No final deal signed yet.

 

[Immortals]

Under no circumstances would Iran be able to build a "supersonic high altitude bomber" that can penetrate Israeli airspace, drop PGMs and exit.

It was possible in 1960s:


Mach 4+
Up to 90,000 altitude
3000 miles range
Was used in surveillance back then

I’m not saying Iran should have built a B-2 bomber or some extragvant large bomber. I am saying they should have focused on a single drone program that had the capability of dropping a small amount of PGMs on HVTs (air defenses, radars, fuel depots at air bases, etc) to help make the BM force a force multiplier.

Iran’s attack vector is very 1D today. Missiles. No AirPower. No true drone threat. No true Navy threat.

We had a couple of users from the old forum well versed in this field and said that there were retired former engineers who worked on US/European aeronautical systems that live in Iran and weren’t even being contacted by the government.

The reason was simple: Iran didn’t believe in air power and didn’t believe it cutting edge systems.

Instead we got MALE drone after MALE drone after MALE. We have 4 different predator drone designs! For what purpose? Why do we need all these different sub sonic drones that are useless against Israel or U.S.? Why did they spend useless dollars trying to reverse engineer the F-5 for 25 years?! For what purpose?

The problem with Iran’s philosophy is it got so obsessed with low cost designs, and quantity vs quality that at the time of war it became a liability for large scale use against a high tech adversary.

Cost conscious warfare has its place. But there is a reason China spends 200B+ on its military and attempts to achieve cutting edge arms rather than just building millions of missiles and $20K drones. It has the industrial capacity to build 50x whatever Iran can build in missile production, if it wanted to. This is a country that builds 4 destroyers at once in a single shipyard.

But obviously China realizes missile power and quantity over quality of weapons may be enough to fight India or Japan, but it’s not enough for its true enemy: U.S.

 

[Falcon29]

This is Obama nuclear deal all over again

Same one Trump ripped apart

He's gonna sign it and say Obama sucks , I did better and helped make peace

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[Immortals]

Well, lets see will chinese help about target management would be real, that change equation fundamentally even with flaws you described.

Target management? Maybe sure. maybe Iran didn’t pick the best targets or attack procedures during the 12 day war.

On the other hand, if its missile flaws. Iran already imports gyroscopes from China. The problem is there a limit with which you can do your last terminal course correction to correct trajectory deviation. Israel purposely heavily jammed its airspace to prevent last second course corrections.

But also not all Iranian missiles have the latest in gyroscope technology. Gyroscopes are not cheap the more advanced you go up in military grade capability. Iran isn’t going to spend $50K on a gyroscope for a 100K missile. The economics don’t work. That’s the problem. US spent millions for their gyroscopes in the Cold War era for their ICBMs to put it in perspective. Plus not all Iranian warheads are maneuverable or use the same technologies for the ones that do.

There is also the possibility of using ML/AI to help train a model on course corrections that can be installed on the onboard guidance system for the missile. This could reduce the need for external sources (GPS/Beidou/etc) and help reduce the CEP a bit further. But this more recent tech, that I am not sure Iran is even doing much work in this field.