Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[Watandar]

I disagree, since these platforms (AC-130) have long range combat persistence and TEL's need to operate under an open sky. The AC130 can operate for long durations hovering over missile cities waiting for TEL's to emerge with a missile. Launching these missiles is a highly specialized task, the crew and the missile isn't readily replaced neither is the TEL since heavy trucks need special modifications to transform it into a missile launcher.

It does indicate the US /Israel have run out of cheaper loitering drones that were previously performing this job. The AC130 is also an juicy target.

 

[VCheng]

It's not about who actually controls the Strait. But whether or not insurance companies believe it is safe to cross

Agreed. Insurance coverage is the key.

 

[Watandar]

Once again as a think tank these one liners are devaluing your title on the forum. I used to think it was just innocent banter but the frequency suggests it’s deliberate and kn the verge of trolling purposefully.

He is a huge Captain Obvious troll.

 

[Bahrami]

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[VCheng]

Once again as a think tank these one liners are devaluing your title on the forum. I used to think it was just innocent banter but the frequency suggests it’s deliberate and kn the verge of trolling purposefully.

No Sir, brevity while conveying the point is better. Iran has not sunk any ships, while making its point by causing an interruption in the insurance coverage.

If it helps to sound more "think tank like" I can make the same point using many more words, if that is what you would prefer.

Please let me know.

 

[SilentWatch]

it would be silly just to take their words for it. There should be a third party guarantors and some sort of agreement that binds it. Otherwise it would not help Iran in any way. These people have done it not once but at least twice when they have not kept their word.

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3rd party guarantee of Nuclear shield from a 'brotherly' muslim nation against discounted oil of course ? why develop nukes when someone else has them

 

[Musings]

We can but wait and see what happens in the near and long term future for Iran as you describe the possibilities above.

You seem to do a lot of waiting and seeing sir. Lets keep doing that

 

[Watandar]

Reports of Mehrabad airport near Tehran being obliterated. Not just airplanes anymore but also the buildings. Electricity infrastructure in Tehran was also attacked, resulting in blackouts.

It means the US has now accepted the defeat of its strategic goals and will now take out its anger on civilians, before finally quitting. Trump wants visuals of heavy damage for political cover.

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

I think the birds are here @RescueRanger

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حَسْبُنَا اللّٰہُ وَنِعْمَ الْوَکِیْلُ

 

[VCheng]

You seem to do a lot of waiting and seeing sir. Lets keep doing that

Actually, in many aspects, there is not much else that can be done, to be honest.

Many of the possibilities I referred to in my post that you quote cannot be judged for their likelihood to happen, since at this point they all remain only possibilities.

How can one predict the future with any certainty? I would rather bide my time rather than speculate.

(Please check your DMs.)

 

[Gryzor]

If the US is calling it off now then Iran needs to scramble for the best air defence and radars that Russians and Chinese can spare.

Variants of that sentence are playing on repeat mode in mind day and night ever since I saw how powerless the country was when the very first plumes of smokes appeared over Tehran at Zero Hour. I will never forget the sorrow and shock I had for my fellow Iranians in the country. Never. I saw it live, upon waking up to that nightmare and having a dozen missed called and even more message from panicked friends...

Let us hope things can evolve post war in a way that prevents a least a part of the gross, terrifying mistakes when it came to procurement guidelines and doctrines, mismanagement and misallocation of funds, and ultimately mass production can be attained, rerouted and properly undertaken.

TLDR , assuming this mayhem stops in a couple days(far from certain considering the US can sit this out and "leave it to Bibi" like it's written verbatim in the Pentagon's 2012 policy paper) which it seems to be :

-The navy can wait for years, even though their loss is painful to watch, those ships bar maybe the Dena and the Soleimani class, where already useless for modern warfare, let's face it, and were diverting way too much ressources and funds with regards to their actual value in theater.
-Ground forces seems to have absorbed the shock for the most part as well, and not the prime targets AFAIK.
-Missiles and drone infrastructure have most of their R&D + production chains under thick rock and/or reactive concrete so i'm not (too) worried, timelines could be in the 2-3 year range, if the June war can be an indicator from which we infer that way more intense war.

But Iran must initiate a major industrial effort both through joint cooperation deals particularly with China from which most of its best system take their roots, *and* go after major extensions to their existing manufacturing capabilities and lines for their own air defense tech. The 100% self-reliance goal cannot be realistically attained for a few years of recovery to come, and be a priority, quite unfortunately. Iran must go after ToT to exponentially incrase its own homegrown capabilities. It's a quarter mile until they're here, really...

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

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[shapurzolaktaf]

Reports of Mehrabad airport near Tehran being obliterated. Not just airplanes anymore but also the buildings. Electricity infrastructure in Tehran was also attacked, resulting in blackouts.

It means the US has now accepted the defeat of its strategic goals and will now take out its anger on civilians, before finally quitting. Trump wants visuals of heavy damage for political cover.

He's angry, the war costs zionists 3-6 billion usd a day.

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

Looks like Iran has won if Trump is saying the war with Iran is going to be short.

 

[925boy]

Very ironic
What Iran will say?

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Iran will say- "its ok for Gulf countries to seek this Ukrainian "anti- Shahed" expertise,but there will probably be no need for it because by the time the Ukrainians arrive and setup properly, there will be no (or a few) Shaheds attacking gulf countries, because all the gulf targets would have already been destroyed "