Some random takes from today:
- IRGC hardliners might try to get rid of Ghalibaf at some point, he is getting too big for his shoes.
- Trump confirmed Soleimani was burnt from the inside by people who are no longer alive (SL?) as many Iranian analysts suspected at that time. IRI is a shit show of egomaniacs.
- Russia and China benefits the most if US lands on Persian Gulf Islands. It will become a proper war comprising of battle after battle, ideal for the big two. Some Russian media outlets even said that Ukraine-Russian war's another front will be opened in Persian Gulf soon. What I wrote months back here about IRGC trying to fuk up petro in petro USD and replacing it with Yuan is turning out to be true. War was part of the plan otherwise protests would not have started.
- There is full Russo-Sino Sat-NAV feed being datalinked into IRGC underground bases, yesterday's strike which messed up E3, todays Kuwait attack, all confirming this.
- Many analysts are saying that Iranian control and 2 Million USD worth Yuan per tanker regimen over Hormuz will become standard at the end of this war.
- Strong hints of nuclearization as NPT discussion reached parliament members but the news came from IRGC affiliated media which hints towards their intention or approval.
- There is a Vance lobby rising up in Republican party power circles who are pushing him to come out as the "peacemaker" of this war so he can win 2028. His today's claim of "we are getting out soon" was part of this plan. Vance is also an AIPAC rat so his launch means project Trump-Iran war is being seen by Zios as a failed project.
- Trump confirmed Salman the Snake faced Baboon has been kissing his azz (for ground attack on Iran). His character is turning out to be the most snake like considering how many different and diverse mainstream media outlets are now saying openly that it was him and Nahtanyahu who pushed Trump into attacking Iran.
- Minab school attack was deliberate to bring Iranian forces morale down, alleged by whistleblower from US intel.
- IDF Chief's claim of IDF on verge of being collapse is statistically proven, he is right. The interceptor numbers dwindling, Hezbollah's surprise return, IRGCASF's undeterred attacks, Houthis on verge of entrance all are adding up. They have shown weaknesses being overly reliant upon US for EW, for heavy bombing, for failure to deter the cornered, sanctioned enemy (twice), failure to prove safety of their sensitive nuclear sites etc. The conscription age has been increased. If Trump leaves the war in the middle Israelis will be very vulnerable. Myth of invincibilty is gone. It wont affect them for too long as dozens of Billions USD will come from US for reconstruction, replenishments etc, they kinda own US and EU both now (and Islamic world by extension through debts and compromised leaders minus Iran and its allies)
- IRI has zero understanding of building narratives which are part of war. They are too naive and honest listing deaths, injuries and losses while Israelis are arresting people over leaked videos from site sof impacts. Israeli censorship and not allowing media coverage is extreme to the point that for ~6000 injured civilians and Thousands of destroyed buildings, the death ratio is 10 times lower than usual numbers for such large injured population. World has never seen such low deaths for such large injured or destroyed properties numbers in any active war, that too involving clustered munitions falling on cities. Its obvious they are lying but IRI has no interest in building narrative.
- IRGCASF still has not used its AShBM, AShCM, or much of the hypersonic or rather more sophistcated arsenal yet. We might see, first ever combat use of an AShBM in form of Qassem/Zolfagahar basir in coming days/weeks. Fattah, KS, Zohair, Qassim-Basir, Sejjil are being saved.
- Someone alleged that IRGCASF is using more sophistcated Shahed-136 with modifications that were showcased with Shahed-238 jet powered ones. The modifications are from advanced versions of Geran ToT.
- Something interesting is happening ever since 11-12 EW radars or search n track assets of US have been taken out by IRGCASF in the Arab countries. These ground assets, along with Aerial EW, Space Sats, Naval radars created a multi-sensor-target-indentifier network that tracked Iranian missiles as soon as they left TEL's and live datalinked the tracked info to quad-layered Israeli ABM/AD shield as was observed by IRGCASF in TP1,2,3 ... ever since these radars have been taken out, there have been multiple cases where interceptors are seen going in random flight paths or completely missing the incoming RV showing that battery's own FCR were used for tracking missile with less success of interception. US is pretty much still tracking missiles using aerial, naval and sat based indentification system but the process is slow because of losing one strong ground based tracking feature.
- Missile-358/359, Majid AD-08 SHORAD have done their work to some extent. Total aerial losses including ground destruction is heavier on the US-Israeli side than Iranian (50-60 on each side counting MALE, fighters, Tankers, EWs). Basij mobile teams have MIsagh-3 or Sahand Manpads as well. If recent conflicts have taught us anything, the HIMADs are notorious failures. Mobile TELAR SHORADS/MIDADS are the way to go with their own EO/IIR passive seekers.
- Some analysts close to IRGC are saying that IRGC will repond to island landings by Houthis Red sea closure and them strike Southern Israel , Suez traffic and Saudis. IRGC will also have their own landings in return. Keep an eye on targets are they are softening the most.
- Apparently Sharra in Syria is either passing Iranian/Iraqi supplies to Hezbollah against less money than what they used to spend on Assad (claimed by Iranian diplomat?) or he secretly works for Irans AoR considering how silently Iran and Russia allowed Assad to be replaced.
- As seen in case of strikes from Yazd IRGCASF underground missile city, the aerial bombing has minimal to almost no effect on Missile launching capability, the base fired Ghadr-F MRBMs at Israel few hours after receiving a massive bombing raid by US and Israel both.
Will write more and in proper form.
