Oldenwisdom...قول بزرگ
Trusted Member
Here are some facts for you:
1. The Iranian parliament is yet to vote on the bill for leaving the NPT, even though it was proposed with the highest urgency.
2. Israel has hit the Lavan refinery and the Siri island after the ceasefire came into effect. Iran has reported these incidents as "explosions of unknown origin".
3. Qatar has already called Iran "an aggressor" and has called on Iran to pay reparations.
4. Israel is still advancing in the south of Lebanon and says Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire.
5. Trump has already contradicted his earlier post on TS, rejecting Iran's 10-point proposal as a base for negotiations.
6. Kushner and Witkoff will attend the US negotiations with Iran.
7. Just in: JD Vance says Trump's patience with Iranians is over, i.e. he is threatening us. He says Iranians should not underestimate "President Trump".
And all of this has happened less than 12 hours after accepting the ceasefire!
Per Trump, China helped them convince Iran to accept the ceasefire. So, we were most likely pushed to accept the ceasefire by China and Russia against the wish of our armed forces. They probably made it clear to us that we should either accept the ceasefire, or the resolution would be passed at the UNSC.
They didn't lift the sanctions on Iran. They allowed their allies to buy our oil to control oil prices. That is completely different from lifting sanctions. The US primary, secondary and UNSC sanctions are still in place.
Zarif talked about our terms of surrender and it happened a few days after that. Do you still think that the IRGC calls the shots?
It is absolutely correct to be cynical and circumspect. But there are legitimate factors in play... not only domestically in the US... where among other things Orange has taken a huge hit due to his own recklessness owing in part because of his cognitive decline and deceit as second nature... but more importantly globally... oil, fertilizer, helium... are all immediate concerns... the markets were manipulated to keep the prices from reflecting the real cost... they still do. A reflection of that is the premium over spot being charged... but that isn't all... fertilizer is needed NOW... helium is needed for all the chips and manufactured product due in fall. Still not the most important thing 10 year bond yields were reaching 4.5 a threshold where things start spiraling in an already tough fiscal year... if EU and Japan hit recession they'd be bound to pull their trillions out of US system. This deal averts a systemic crisis that only ones presented with real numbers and data streams can fathom.
Sure, in the negotiations there is likely going to be back and forth... but this is the starting point. The biggest caveat is not US here though, it is zion that will burn the world in order to rule over it... which remains an enduring concern.
Other than that this war simply couldn't have been pushed into next month... which means this is likely it! The window of opportunity as I noted earlier in a post in January was only until spring to achieve an outcome.
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