Islamabad Talks - News & Discussions

Market monthly closing is on Thursday.

Expect big move over the weekend. Its either a breakthrough or another episode of fight.

Crude oil is forming a head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe apparently, with the current situation making a top at the second shoulder. If a breakthrough happens in peace negotiations, expect it to drop over to 80-82, or even lower and then consolidate at that stage.

The key zone to watch is the monthly closing. If it closes below 95-96, chances are that the peace deal could happen sooner.
 
mythbuster said:
Let's not get into the nitty gritty of the deal , neither you nor I are in the loop.... there's a bottom line...no nukes or ability to have nukes.....no proxies.....cap on missile program , how far it goes? Not clear...... Hormuz was not an issue then and it's not an issue now... it's nothing more than media and fanboys hype.
Click to expand...
HEU is the sticky issue and there is no solution in the foreseeable future. Hence, the status quo is likely to continue till IRGC runs out of cash, which may take a long time. Be ready to be frustrated with no action for a long time. Time passes much more slowly in that part of the world!
 
EugeneP said:
HEU is the sticky issue and there is no solution in the foreseeable future. Hence, the status quo is likely to continue till IRGC runs out of cash, which may take a long time. Be ready to be frustrated with no action for a long time. Time passes much more slowly in that part of the world!
Click to expand...

Lebanon and the missiles are the issues. Before this war began, the main issue was the Iranian missile system. But now Lebanon and Hormuz are also added to the mix. I believe the HEU and Hormuz will be sorted out if/when there is some agreement. Look at how much Iran was willing to concede in the Oman talks leading to this war. Iranians are trying to be a bit coy about some issues but they would concede on those issues.

But you are right about 'may take a long time' part though we should all hope for a quick wrapup. And a peaceful one.
 
EugeneP said:
HEU is the sticky issue and there is no solution in the foreseeable future. Hence, the status quo is likely to continue till IRGC runs out of cash, which may take a long time. Be ready to be frustrated with no action for a long time. Time passes much more slowly in that part of the world!
Click to expand...
American are straight shooters , they won't waste time.
 
mythbuster said:
Let's not get into the nitty gritty of the deal , neither you nor I are in the loop.... there's a bottom line...no nukes or ability to have nukes.....no proxies.....cap on missile program , how far it goes? Not clear...... Hormuz was not an issue then and it's not an issue now... it's nothing more than media and fanboys hype.
Click to expand...
Disagree with your assessment.

Hormuz is a major issue and will continue to be Iran's best available card.

Beyond that, as I have maintained previously, drawing US troops into a desperate ground offensive would be the only other chance Iran has to salvage some sort of marginal victory from this war, but that now looks less likely than ever, with Trump deploying his forces seemingly to threaten and gain leverage rather than to engage.

If the Iranian regime is still standing AND they can maintain control over Hormuz (i.e. levying variable tolls that suit their interests), then any Iranian would bite your hand off for that and it would be a victory. It remains to be seen whether they are willing to compromise on the other parts of their original 10 point plan. I suspect they will want the right to have a long range missile and drone capability also, at the very least.

It's the nuclear option which is most likely to become the negotiable "off ramp" that all parties now desperately want. If Tehran hands over the uranium, that might be enough for Trump and Tehran to both declare a substantial "victory". It is worth remembering that nobody as yet has overturned Khameini's (though originally based on Khomeini's opinion I believe) fatwa on nuclear weaponry.
 
StormBreaker said:
Market monthly closing is on Thursday.

Expect big move over the weekend. Its either a breakthrough or another episode of fight.

Crude oil is forming a head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe apparently, with the current situation making a top at the second shoulder. If a breakthrough happens in peace negotiations, expect it to drop over to 80-82, or even lower and then consolidate at that stage.

The key zone to watch is the monthly closing. If it closes below 95-96, chances are that the peace deal could happen sooner.
Click to expand...
B.C - kuch ho jaey (jald).

Dhs. 165/- ka Full Tank petrol.
 
Meengla said:
Lebanon and the missiles are the issues. Before this war began, the main issue was the Iranian missile system. But now Lebanon and Hormuz are also added to the mix. I believe the HEU and Hormuz will be sorted out if/when there is some agreement. Look at how much Iran was willing to concede in the Oman talks leading to this war. Iranians are trying to be a bit coy about some issues but they would concede on those issues.

But you are right about 'may take a long time' part though we should all hope for a quick wrapup. And a peaceful one.
Click to expand...
What, in your opinion, may be a solution to HEU imbroglio acceptable to both sides? Nobody seems to have the faintest idea.
 
Master Chief said:
If the Iranian regime is still standing AND they can maintain control over Hormuz (i.e. levying variable tolls that suit their interests), then any Iranian would bite your hand off for that and it would be a victory. It remains to be seen whether they are willing to compromise on the other parts of their original 10 point plan. I suspect they will want the right to have a long range missile and drone capability also, at the very least.
Click to expand...

As long as the current regime in Iran stands, how can they not have the control over Hormuz even if initially conceding Hormuz as part of some 'deal'? The American armada leaves--as they eventually will--but Iran would be still there to 'exercise' its control over Hormuz over a moment's notice. Who is going to stop them? And frankly, that's an unsettling thought for the world, and even possibly for Pakistan.

Iran's geography gives it the perpetual leverage over Hormuz unless there is a regime change in Iran, which I don't see happening anytime soon.

But you are right: The HEU is a so-called leverage which Iran wouldn't mind losing too much. I mean just look at the original JCPOA and then the Oman talks before this war began.
 
Master Chief said:
Disagree with your assessment.

Hormuz is a major issue and will continue to be Iran's best available card.

Beyond that, as I have maintained previously, drawing US troops into a desperate ground offensive would be the only other chance Iran has to salvage some sort of marginal victory from this war, but that now looks less likely than ever, with Trump deploying his forces seemingly to threaten and gain leverage rather than to engage.

If the Iranian regime is still standing AND they can maintain control over Hormuz (i.e. levying variable tolls that suit their interests), then any Iranian would bite your hand off for that and it would be a victory. It remains to be seen whether they are willing to compromise on the other parts of their original 10 point plan. I suspect they will want the right to have a long range missile and drone capability also, at the very least.

It's the nuclear option which is most likely to become the negotiable "off ramp" that all parties now desperately want. If Tehran hands over the uranium, that might be enough for Trump and Tehran to both declare a substantial "victory". It is worth remembering that nobody as yet has overturned Khameini's (though originally based on Khomeini's opinion I believe) fatwa on nuclear weaponry.
Click to expand...
You have set the bar very high for Americans very low for the Iranian...first of all it's the Americans who control Hormuz not the Iranians ... there's absolutely no need for ground invasion and there will be none....are you suggesting that since the Pehelvi couldn't take over Iran so everything is honky dory ?
 
EugeneP said:
What, in your opinion, may be a solution to HEU imbroglio acceptable to both sides? Nobody seems to have the faintest idea.
Click to expand...

Aren't you following the discussions on HEU? They are about 5 years non enrichment to 20 years non enrichment to downgrading the enrichment levels to even shipping them off to some other country.
It is a bargaining chip which Iran was willing to concede in the Oman talk just before this war started.
 
mythbuster said:
You have set the bar very high for Americans very low for the Iranian...first of all it's the Americans who control Hormuz not the Iranians ... there's absolutely no need for ground invasion and there will be none....are you suggesting that since the Pehelvi couldn't take over Iran so everything is honky dory ?
Click to expand...
Your very first statement is factually wrong. USA does not control Hormuz because it cannot assure safe transit of any vessels through the Strait.

What USA has done is essentially a Samson option - if we can't have it, we will make sure nobody can have it.

Fair enough, that will put pressure on Iran, but it is quite different from being "in control of the Strait".
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)

Pakistan Defence Latest

Country Watch Latest

Latest Posts

Share this page

Back
Top