Pakistan planning massive new power capacity expansion
- Thread starter Bilal
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Bilal
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
- Thread starter
- #3
MOE clarification. Except for 9GW distributed and 3GW competitive bidding the rest of the additional planned capacity is not explained and is being justified by hopes and dreams that EV adoption and other sustained demand growth will somehow absorb the current and future demand-supply gap:
Jango007
Registered Member
Maa ki Duaaa is what’s keeping this country afloat .
Get ready for massive corruption and just like the past IPP fiasco created by PPP and Patwari Muslim league they want to make sure they will have a source of income even after they are removed from power .
What Pakistan needs is revolution in power production and transmission …… Pakistan is still paying premium for obsolete power plants that we signed up 30 years back due to massive corruption .
We are about to repeat the same mistake but at even bigger scale ….
Get ready for massive corruption and just like the past IPP fiasco created by PPP and Patwari Muslim league they want to make sure they will have a source of income even after they are removed from power .
What Pakistan needs is revolution in power production and transmission …… Pakistan is still paying premium for obsolete power plants that we signed up 30 years back due to massive corruption .
We are about to repeat the same mistake but at even bigger scale ….
Pakistan Space Agency
Elite Member
We will always need more electricity. Period.
Pakistani people do not have the luxury of availability of electricity 24/7.
Pakistani population has been growing by nearly 4 million people annually.
Pakistani people do not have the luxury of availability of electricity 24/7.
Pakistani population has been growing by nearly 4 million people annually.
Toxic
Trusted Member
Masallah, Can't wait for more of my taxes to go to poor IPP owners instead of greedy school children.
Bilal
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
- Thread starter
- #9
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The country will collapse. I hope someone sensible stops it.
Side note: they have managed to create a 3 trillion rupee circular debt in gas sector. Tajurbakar
Did you read the government’s own document referenced in the reply tweet by Miftah? They are expecting the capacity payment increasing close to 40 rupees if this plan gets executed. If cost overruns and devaluation is modeled that will push only the capacity charges to 45-50 per unit. That alone is equal to the current unit price which is killing everyone.
The country will collapse. I hope someone sensible stops it.
Side note: they have managed to create a 3 trillion rupee circular debt in gas sector. Tajurbakar
Sainthood 2.0
Elite Member
Government babus are hoping/projecting for the best-case scenario, and Miftah is number crunching like an accountant instead of trying to comprehend the bigger picture.
If you transform the whole economy's infrastructure into a pro-electric one , i.e., if you have EV's only, you use electricity for heating, ACs, your economy grows at a reasonable % 4-5%, your population grows, so does your consumer market Ie more tvs, ac's, more demand for electricity, add in electric bikes, rickshaws, minivans and cars
We'd need all that energy
But this is the best-case scenario, although I think atp
The government should also start relying on people to take care of their energy needs through solar energy
They should project for that too.
If you transform the whole economy's infrastructure into a pro-electric one , i.e., if you have EV's only, you use electricity for heating, ACs, your economy grows at a reasonable % 4-5%, your population grows, so does your consumer market Ie more tvs, ac's, more demand for electricity, add in electric bikes, rickshaws, minivans and cars
We'd need all that energy
But this is the best-case scenario, although I think atp
The government should also start relying on people to take care of their energy needs through solar energy
They should project for that too.
Bilal
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
- Thread starter
- #11
Brother you don’t plan 70 billion dollar spend on hopes, wishes and vague ideas.
Where is the projection of EV adoption rate. How many EVs will be on the road, how much they will exactly consume?
Which policy is going to push people to electrifying heating and cooling. What will be the quantum of that.
Why system efficiency can’t be improved to minimize losses.
What will be the impact of distributed power generation (exact numbers) and battery capacity expansion?
Sainthood 2.0
Elite Member
Idk about other things but I think pak would definitely see a EV boom just like it saw one with solar
Only a Matter of time
But yeah you're right about other things though
Numbers are kinda iffy even if you take evs into account 2030s onwards.
Bilal
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
- Thread starter
- #13
No doubt about EV boom, at least that’s my hope. But does that translate into a need for additional 26GW capacity requirements and 70billon dollar in capacity and transmission investment.
They just need to focus on improving line losses, Chashnupp 5 is already under construction (can’t be stopped now), so is Tarbela 5 plus we can expect the solar expansion to continue to add to the capacity without any additional capacity charges. Additionally, NJHPP will eventually be fixed.
No need to add capacity till we start utilizing the current one properly.
At best, invest in removing transmission bottlenecks and BESS down the line to store daytime solar to utilize during later part of the day and similar setup for wind.
Not only would it provide cheap power but also reduce the reliance on gas peaked plants.
Goenitz
Elite Member
Poor PMLN leaders. I think they haven't
Chashma 5 can produce 1200 MW compared to 340 MW of 3 and 4. If we need an EV boom, then we need non-fossil fuel plants unless we can find reserves like SA.
From Gemini:
Location: Chashma, near Mianwali, Punjab (left embankment of the Indus River)
Capacity: 1,200 MW (MWe)Reactor
Type: Hualong One (HPR1000) Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR)
Estimated Cost: Approximately $3.7 billion to $4.8 billion
Expected Completion: 2030
Safeguards: Approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency
Chashma 5 can produce 1200 MW compared to 340 MW of 3 and 4. If we need an EV boom, then we need non-fossil fuel plants unless we can find reserves like SA.
From Gemini:
Location: Chashma, near Mianwali, Punjab (left embankment of the Indus River)
Capacity: 1,200 MW (MWe)Reactor
Type: Hualong One (HPR1000) Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR)
Estimated Cost: Approximately $3.7 billion to $4.8 billion
Expected Completion: 2030
Safeguards: Approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency
Hazard
Registered Member
This is precisely the problem with Pak. Not lack of electricity.
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