Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds
- Thread starter Khorasan Black Flags
- Start date
unconventional
Registered Member
One thing we need to be cognizant of.
Iran’s redline for Israel was Beirut/Dahiya, not all of Lebanon (including southern Lebanon). There were plenty of attacks by Israel, and Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon, without eliciting a response from the Iranians.
Even Trump’s previous statement was about him asking Netanyahu not to attack Beirut.
So this might (or might not) be a mistake on Iran’s part. Maybe they feel confident that Hezbollah and their FPV drones can inflict serious damage on the Israelis and increase costs on them; so they don’t need to get directly involved.
I’m not so sure about that: while think Israel has incurred a big cost in southern Lebanon, Southern Lebanon (not Hezbollah necessarily) has incurred a far greater cost from Israeli attacks.
It will be humiliating for Israel to not directly attack Iran after this, but they can still keep the heat up (or expand) in southern Lebanon and not get the Iranians involved.
Hassan Al-Somal
Elite Member
Casualties from Iranian missile and drone attacks must be high. Or it could be that they want to escalate the war against southern Lebanon and Iran and expect increased casualties.
lightning f57
Trusted Member
Is there some friction building? Iran needs to pile the pressure on more create a fissure between these 2 cronies.
Kyussis
Trusted Member
No they have not!
Meengla
Elite Member
The Good cop, bad cop, the playing the markets can only work for so long. Reuters' most prominent story today was about the frustration of the American troops on the naval vessels near Israel for months and the agony their families are facing. Such circumstances can't be sustained for very long. This is not the America of the pre 2000 era. It is pampered, educated and casualty averse--and so are the rich GCC countries.
Just a few missiles launched toward Israel a day is enough to cause immense psychological and economic damage to the Israeli economy. A first world economy, a Capitalist economy, an emigration-prone economy can't sustain such threats. Capital is very risk prone. Extremely.
Persian Gulf
INT'L MOD
Meengla
Elite Member
Up until the ceasefire in early April and the Islamabad Talks right about that time, no one could be sure of who had the upper hand. But when JD Vance went to Islamabad for the negotiations, to me it was clear who had the upper hand: Iran. And the events since then have not changed my opinion of that. Even today's escalation where Iran launched the missiles on Israel and Trump asking Israel to back down shows to clear imperatives: The Americans want out and the Israelis want an escalation.
PakistanLVR
Registered Member
Do you have a source this? We would like to see verifiable sources.
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PakistanLVR
Registered Member
Yeah but I’m willing to bet my left nut that if anyone thinks there is a degree of differences between Trump and Satanyahoo, is flat out wrong. Trump has no honor in his body. He will pretend to be sweet when it suits and thinks his opponent has the upper hand while he searches for a way to undermine him, and outright conniving and murderous when he has the upper hand. They are playing good cop bad cop.
In this case Iran has has power project to keep them honest
Hassan Al-Somal
Elite Member
This is a good time for Iran to bargain "Israeli" withdrawal from Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah's guns can't remain silent as long as "Israel" maintains military presence in Southern Lebanon.
Hopefully, Iran can also bring Gaza into the negotiation. Trump needs to be pressured to stop the current genocide in Gaza. Only Iran and Hezbollah are in a position to influence the situation.
AZ_HighCountry
INT'L MOD
Technically, he is not wrong. Interceptions rates are being reported as high as 90%. You can use your favorite search engine.
It's the 10% that is getting through.
Immortals
Elite Member
As I have said on here:
All Iran needs to do is respond to attacks, keep the strait closed, and keep the pressure on Trump and don’t kill any US soldiers in order to not rile the U.S. public.
Do the above until September (a mere 3 months away) and Iran will win. Simple as that. You can’t print molecules. By September another 1 billion of barrels of oil will not have reached the global markets on top of the over 1 billion barrels that haven’t reached since the war began.
All Iran has to do is hold out and occasionally fire some missiles and drones. Let inertia do its thing.
If Iranians are master negotiators then the ploy is to stall and if required go back to war. You will get a much much more favorable deal by breaking the back of the western economies than taking the early deal and burning your once in a lifetime “choke the world’s oil” card.
Meengla
Elite Member
You give too much credit to Trump to even play 'the bad cop'. He is simply a Narcissism personality at the end of his career and to even his physical life to care for anything except perhaps for Ivanka Trump, as a credible analyst said. At 80 year of age, he could and probably will get a Presidential Pardon like was granted by Ford to Nixon.
When a person at the fag year of his life, after a lifetime of screwing around over inherited $$ has this kind of impunity to act then that person is capable of anything given a likely Pardon given to the person. "Power is the most potent Aphrodisiac' as quoted by someone.
Some people are like the Living Gods. The Demi Gods of this world. Blood thirsty. Unrepenting. Biden was also one in the same league except his political base tried to have some control over Biden. Trump is only now feeling the heat from his base.
