US Perspective on the Iran - Israel / US War

[Shags202]

Bottom line is over 10M b/d are making it through the southern passage while Iranian exports are zero and its economy cratering.

Qatars energy woes are a strategic boon for the US. An Bab el Mandab is primarily a Saudi/Euro problem.

You have no argument to make. Iran played its last card and lost.

I made several arguments that were clear and rational I even spaced everything out dude for a country that probably has redirected a few thousand ships by now since the start of the war taken out dozens of tankers themselves blew up multiple sites all over the Middle East if we want to call this winning be my guest funny thing is even in the American perspective your voice is the minority….neither straits were Americas problem before all of this Hormuz shipping lanes has it now become a US problem why….i honestly believe your a guy smarter than most but you pretending everything is rosy is boring if trump told you the earth is flat would you believe it

 

[Pakistani Dragon]

And yet gas is now going up up up diesel up up up cost of living is going up up up and we are still bragging about a dozen or so ships instead of the previous 140 that were traveling before this war.

Qatar ability to produce natural gas for the world has seemingly halted

Saudis are being crippled fairly easily

Quarter of a billion to half a billion to protect these ships…..yes yes Arabs will invest in American weapons that cost more than just making amends as the aggressor…..weapons offensive or defensive that won’t be coming any time soon but they will pay in advance for those weapons like suckers

Houthis have come up triumphant in Yemen…..guess who helped them there but everything is rosy

Man I agree Hezbollah is very quiet reminds you when they went quiet before they started banging up the idf



And yet we brag about a dozen ships….okay Trump Junior

Better to admit your wrong or just say hey mission accomplished we are packing up and going back home where we belong and where we should’ve invested the money spent on an idiotic war on Americans….i heard Trump is giving everyone 5000 if republicans win the election weird why not just give it to them now….oh wait he’s lying like he lies about everything else

This is you:

28 February 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 March 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 April 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 May 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 June 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 July 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 August 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 September 2026: ...

Meanwhile, everyone around me is still doing exactly the same things they were doing on 27 February 2026. If anything, things have actually got better.

Some of my relatives have got married, and more people have been recruited into my team.

Iranians are still living comfortably in the West while cheering on the IRGC fanatics at the same time.

So, after all these predictions of doom and the imminent Iranian victory, what has actually changed?

 

[Shags202]

This is you:

28 February 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 March 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 April 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 May 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 June 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 July 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 August 2026: US is doomed. The world is finished. Iran has won.
28 September 2026: ...

Meanwhile, everyone around me is still doing exactly the same things they were doing on 27 February 2026. If anything, things have actually got better.

Some of my relatives have got married, and more people have been recruited into my team.

Iranians are still living comfortably in the West while cheering on the IRGC fanatics at the same time.

So, after all these predictions of doom and the imminent Iranian victory, what has actually changed?

Eeeemm I don’t think I’m one of those guys that said America is doomed I’m a realist I don’t recall saying Iran will become victorious but they are not losing if they were they would be waving that white flag over half a year ago like some predicted

 

[PK781]

Reading latest posts on TWZ as well as other non-Twitter intel sites, the Hoots are very close to shutting down the Bab al-Mandab Strait:

Houthis' Stranglehold On Strategic Bab Al-Mandab Strait Grows Stronger

The capture of the port of Mokha and possibly the islands of Perim and Zuraq can give the Houthis key points of control over the Red Sea and the Strait.

www.twz.com

That along with them hitting a major Saudi E-W pipeline is causing further instability in the markets. Plus, it takes pressure off of Iran. The US will now have to focus additional resources to ensure Red Sea traffic doesn't come to a halt like the Persian Gulf.

more jerbs(jobs)/work for the US Navy fleet.
LOL

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Bottom line is over 10M b/d are making it through the southern passage while Iranian exports are zero and its economy cratering.

Qatars energy woes are a strategic boon for the US. An Bab el Mandab is primarily a Saudi/Euro problem.

You have no argument to make. Iran played its last card and lost.

LOL......and while you are relishing in yet another strategic boon, how about this harsh reality?

There are 2100+ electric power plants in the US that are either by natural gas. Over 43% of US electric production comes from plants fired by natural gas. That requires approximately 35.8B CF of natural gas per day. The US produces approximately 109B CF per day. The US exports about 20% of this.

Key uses of natural gas in the US are:

1. electric generation
2. residential heating
3. commercial and industrial heating
4. petrochemical feedstocks --- this is where fertilizer comes from

With this announcement to provide LNG to Qatar, sources I'm reading indicate Qatar is looking at securing 2-3M tons annually, which at max purchase is approximately 144B CF. Or, in round numbers, 4 days' worth of electric production in the US alone.

With pressures already present in the refining industry and fuel prices rising, this will only lead to higher utility rates for consumers of natural gas. My own home is heated with natural gas. And, there is always a winter premium surcharge.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Eeeemm I don’t think I’m one of those guys that said America is doomed I’m a realist I don’t recall saying Iran will become victorious but they are not losing if they were they would be waving that white flag over half a year ago like some predicted

For a country that has supposedly played its last card according to the armchair analysts, they seem to be putting a noticeable grip on the global economy.

 

[Shags202]

For a country that has supposedly played its last card according to the armchair analysts, they seem to be putting a noticeable grip on the global economy.

Their economy is fudged so why not take as many countries down with them as possible short term or long term this is going to effect a lot of people if this foolishness stops today everything goes back to normal if people think we can rewind back to 7 months ago it’s not happening people have a lot of catching up to do but man trump got water to buy gas but when the number one country in the world in natural gas production can’t produce for their own needs let alone the world there’s a big problem about to happen…..winter is just about here folks

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Their economy is fudged so why not take as many countries down with them as possible short term or long term this is going to effect a lot of people if this foolishness stops today everything goes back to normal if people think we can rewind back to 7 months ago it’s not happening people have a lot of catching up to do but man trump got water to buy gas but when the number one country in the world in natural gas production can’t produce for their own needs let alone the world there’s a big problem about to happen…..winter is just about here folks

Depending on the extent of the damage Iran inflicted, it could be several years before Qatar's NG industry is fully back on line.

 

[Shags202]

Depending on the extent of the damage Iran inflicted, it could be several years before Qatar's NG industry is fully back on line.

But everything is rosy I’m telling you people are smarter than they let on but choose the denial road man here’s the truth we even need Iran with their oil flowing to keep the world prices down man if trump could actually supply the world like he was pretending to keep the oil markets from blowing up he would be doing that gladly but he can’t and Venezuela can’t do it either

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

But everything is rosy I’m telling you people are smarter than they let on but choose the denial road man here’s the truth we even need Iran with their oil flowing to keep the world prices down man if trump could actually supply the world like he was pretending to keep the oil markets from blowing up he would be doing that gladly but he can’t and Venezuela can’t do it either

My wallet could use a break paying for all these wins.

 

[Shags202]

My wallet could use a break paying for all these wins.

Hey I’m going to Slovenia on off season no kids I am hitting up Italy and Croatia we’re still not percent sure renting a car or taking the bus tours but trust me every other week I go to Walmart to shop I’m like damn 100 dollars for me nothing…..I took my dad to Costco again he’s ancient but we ended up leaving Costco I’m like 500 dollars later I’m like wtf did you buy for 500 to be fair I saw some pumas for 52 dollars I didn’t feel bad though I still remember all the birthday gifts I never got from him

 

[Shags202]

Hey I’m going to Slovenia on off season no kids I am hitting up Italy and Croatia we’re still not percent sure renting a car or taking the bus tours but trust me every other week I go to Walmart to shop I’m like damn 100 dollars for me nothing…..I took my dad to Costco again he’s ancient but we ended up leaving Costco I’m like 500 dollars later I’m like wtf did you buy for 500 to be fair I saw some pumas for 52 dollars I didn’t feel bad though I still remember all the birthday gifts I never got from him

Off topic since I have never been to Italy have you ever been to Trieste in Italy closest Italian city to mirna not trying to go to far

 

[Shags202]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ship-hit-by-projectile-while-transiting-hormuz-strait-uk-maritime-agency/

Hey without high risk…..naaa if it was me or @F-22Raptor we wouldn’t be on any of those ships we are too smart for that

 

[The SC]

 

[The SC]

Saw a report earlier this morning; Brent already at over over $100. WIT is at $90.

The Dow is currently down 409 points. It was down a little over 500 yesterday.

Reuters, citing three industry sources familiar with Saudi exports, reports that available stocks at Yanbu are sufficient to sustain exports for only five to seven days following the shutdown of the East-West pipeline. If pumping is not resumed within days, the market could face a loss of up to four million barrels per day, equivalent to about 4% of global supply.

One source estimated that repairs could take five to six weeks, while another said a shorter repair timeframe was possible, with the potential for a partial resumption of pumping while work continues.

A fourth source indicated that Saudi Arabia has additional stocks at the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna and the Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir, from which it can supply customers for several days.

The estimated storage capacity is approximately 35 million barrels at Yanbu, 18 million at Ain Sokhna, and 20 million at Sidi Kerir. All four sources confirm that the tanks are not full. Therefore, the total capacity of 73 million barrels cannot be considered as actual available Saudi stockpiles.

The East-West pipeline was transporting approximately four million barrels per day to Yanbu, after Saudi Arabia rerouted its exports away from the Strait of Hormuz over the past six months. Its shutdown cuts off the replenishment of the coastal storage facilities from which tankers are loaded. Shipments could thus continue for a short period after pumping stops, then decline once the storage is depleted, even if the loading facilities themselves remain operational.

The disruption follows a significant contraction that preceded the attack. Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its production reached 6.2 million barrels per day in August, compared to 10.9 million in February before the war—a decrease of approximately 4.7 million barrels per day, or 43%. Reuters reports that the International Energy Agency stated that Saudi supplies in August fell to their lowest level in more than three decades.

Globally, the International Energy Agency expects oil supplies to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day this year, a decrease of about 6%. Industry sources estimate current flows through the Strait of Hormuz at between six and nine million barrels per day, while the Middle East supplied the market with about 22 million before the war.