No, not even close. Iran's revenue from the Strait of Hormuz will not surpass $15 billion, even if all countries, and I emphasize all countries, accept to pay Iran the fee that the IRGC is wishing for and do not think about replacing the Strait of Hormuz in a couple of years, and the Strait of Hormuz does not remain leaky. So, that's Iran's income in the ideal situation.
Iran's oil exports have dropped to fewer than 300K barrels per day, and probably even fewer than 150K barrels per day. That would add another $10 billion of income. So, in the most optimistic scenario where China buys our oil without discount and all the countries do what the IRGC wants them to do, our income from this strategy would add up to $25 billion.
That's still about 30%-40% less than what it was before the US naval blockade on Iran. Not to mention that the chance of the first scenario ever happening is pretty unlikely as well because 1. the Strait of Hormuz is leaky, 2. not all countries will pay the IRGC their transit fee, 3. Arabs will soon replace and bypass the Strait of Hormuz in a couple of years.
So, why choose a stupid strategy that reduces your income by about 35% and is unsustainable in the long run? Iran should secure nukes, and guarantee its right to close the Strait of Hormuz in war time. Imposing a transit fee during peace time is unsustainable.
U need to calculate all ships not just oil, so include LNG, cargo etc
$15bn is only for oil
U also need to calculate the fact that the pre war oil money Iran receive is not profit but revenue. There is a cost for getting oil out, moving it, paying wages, maintaining all the equipment etc.
Toll is almost all pure profit.
When I calculated it worked out similar.
And with anything the ideal situation is some pay and some don't so U have some leverage over global markets whilst also generating an income.
Nukes are nice, having them gives u deterrence and helps control the escalation ladder but I don't think it would have stopped USA and Israel attacking Iran.
When Israel attacked Iran in 12 day war, what would Iran have said, "ok now we gonna nuke U guys?" Or when they joint attacked then this year? No they wouldn't, because Iran knows it too would get nukes.
Generally no country will use nukes on the onset of war, only if they get super desperate. But like I said it defiently helps having them, puts U in position of power
Iran is currently partially closing it, potentially making money and normalising it.
If in future Arabs find ways around it, Iran can bomb them pipes/pumping stations.
