Russia - Ukraine war part ll. News and Discussions

[BigGazza]

Footage has emerged of a major engagement between 28 Ukrainian robotic platforms and Russian FPV drones.

NATO drones, not "Ukrainian". It should be obvious to any observer that such "Ukrainian" capabilities are entirely due to US/EU support.

 

[BigGazza]

And support with facts instead of speculative nonsense?

Sure.... if you can suggest how anyone is supposed to find the "facts" regarding Russian manufacturing data regarding Iskanders (or any other heavy munitions). Such topics will always involve speculation, and the Ukrop claims are in no way authoritative. As for nonsense... well that is your opinion, but I assert that the bones of my judgement are entirely valid.

It is a suspected arson attack.

So? It is a manufacturing enterprise that is producing materiel for the Ukrop occupation forces. I don't see why such an action should be seen as any different from NATO drone attacks against Russian MIC enterprises. We don't ascribe negative moralistic judgements upon Ukrop attacks against Russian plants, and what real difference is there between (a) sabotage and (b) drone attack?

 

[BigGazza]

And right now, most military analysts say it will take Russia at least until 2035 to capture the entire Donbas, if the current progress continues.

Most "military analysts"... like the ones who said the Ukrop 2023 Summer Offensive would drive the Russians back and the Ukrop would sever the land bridge...

2035? NAFO copium, industrial strength

Ukraine is getting demolished on the battleground through active attrition. Its not the Russian primary aim to take territory but to eliminate Ukrainian manpower, equipment and resources. The loss ratio is well over 10:1 and its Ukraine that is forced to abduct its own citizens off the street to force them into the army, and its Ukraine that goes with a begging bowl to its fluffers in the West. Its Ukraine that is covered in mass war graves. Its Ukraine whose electrical generation grid is on the verge of total collpase. Its Ukraine whose steel industry has ground to a halt. Its Ukraine that is resorting to secret torture cells to stiffen the flagging spine of its troops as desertion rates soar. Its Ukraine whose (foreign supplied) AD has collapsed. Its Ukraine (and its Western backers) that keeps crying for a ceasefire along the current frontline. Its Ukraine whose economy and tax revenue has collapsed and its totally dependent on handouts to keep up the running of the basic machinery of governance and services.

What we are seeing is akin to the German Spring Offensive in March 1918. Lines remained largely static until the German collapse, and Banderite Ukropistan will prove to be the same. Ukraine will hold the Russians back... right until the moment that they don't...

 

[BigGazza]

Given Russia casualties 50,000 men a month, Russia would lose another 6 million soldiers.

Utter nonsense, but Ukraines Western fluffers still cling to this fantasy because the reality is simply too painful for NAFOs to face. Ukropistan is throwing its reserves into a desperate defence of the Russian territory they occupy and they are getting chewed to bits. Lets hope they keep up their so-called 'offensives" as it is this obsession and their carelessness with the lives of their (indentured) troops that help Russia in its endeavours.

The more West projects Ukrainian losses onto Russia and encourages the conflict the longer this war goes on and the deeper will be the societal attrition and collapse of the disgusting Kiev Regime and its fascist banderite ideology.

 

[Leclerc]

Its not the Russian primary aim to take territory but to eliminate Ukrainian manpower, equipment and resources.

So why do you keep reposting maps almost every day and documenting every Russian advance the size of a village?

Territorial advance obviously is the point.

 

[j_hungary]

Most "military analysts"... like the ones who said the Ukrop 2023 Summer Offensive would drive the Russians back and the Ukrop would sever the land bridge...

2035? NAFO copium, industrial strength

Ukraine is getting demolished on the battleground through active attrition. Its not the Russian primary aim to take territory but to eliminate Ukrainian manpower, equipment and resources. The loss ratio is well over 10:1 and its Ukraine that is forced to abduct its own citizens off the street to force them into the army, and its Ukraine that goes with a begging bowl to its fluffers in the West. Its Ukraine that is covered in mass war graves. Its Ukraine whose electrical generation grid is on the verge of total collpase. Its Ukraine whose steel industry has ground to a halt. Its Ukraine that is resorting to secret torture cells to stiffen the flagging spine of its troops as desertion rates soar. Its Ukraine whose (foreign supplied) AD has collapsed. Its Ukraine (and its Western backers) that keeps crying for a ceasefire along the current frontline. Its Ukraine whose economy and tax revenue has collapsed and its totally dependent on handouts to keep up the running of the basic machinery of governance and services.

What we are seeing is akin to the German Spring Offensive in March 1918. Lines remained largely static until the German collapse, and Banderite Ukropistan will prove to be the same. Ukraine will hold the Russians back... right until the moment that they don't...

Well, I don't even know if I should reply to you because I don't do fantasy and make-believe, but I will give you one chance

Bear in mind it takes the Russians 16 months to capture Pokrovsk, and for Donbas to fall, Russian need to take both Kramatorsk and Slovanisk to complete the move, and to take Slovanisk, they need to move in from Lyman, and to take Kramatorsk, they need to move in from Druzhkivka. Both Lyman and Druzhkivka are the size of Pokrovsk, which means even if they are about to attack tomorrow (which they are not; they are about 20km from Druzhkivka and 10km from Lyman), and assume they can launch the operation at the same time, you are talking about a year or a year and a half before they can take both towns.

Given the fact that Pokrovsk felt on Dec 2025 and they made 8km inland in 11 months, chances are Russian aren't even going to be able to make that move until 2028. And then you are talking about attacking the twin cities, 4 times the size of Pokrovsk.

So yes, 2035 is a very low-ceiling estimate.

And lol, Ukraine had a 40 million population. Yes, Russia is bigger, but it's going to take time to kill 40 million people, and also, if that manpower is the issue, Zelenskyy has no problem asking for Mobilisation; I mean, where else is the Ukrainian gonna go? People who don't know the facts on the ground would believe they are "abducting" on the street, I been to Ukraine 6 times in the previous 5 years, helping them and teaching them how to do Counterintelligence, and I wasn't "abducted" to serve in the frontline. Maybe you should tour the Russian front line; shall we say we meet next May when I am going there again?

 

[j_hungary]

Let do a quick math. Ukraine still controls 5,500km2 of Donbas. So possibly a win for Putin if his invasion army continues making net gains in the next 10 years. Given Russia casualties 50,000 men a month, Russia would lose another 6 million soldiers.
That’s ok for Putin. Lives are cheap.

I wouldn’t bet on US military help. The left and right are busy with themselves in the years to come. Nobody in Europe, Asia trust those people.

Well, I talked to some of the Ukrainian higher-up guys when I was there last year. Trust me, if the Dem is offering to help them, they will take it. The issue is not whether or not the Left and the Right is fighting; the issue here is that if Trump wants anything done, they would have to come through the Democrats, and if Trump gets nothing done and is hostile toward the Dem Congress and Senate, the GOP is going to lose in 2028 because the Dems would say Trump sabotaged the progress.

The problem with casualties is that for every one you lose, you replace that one with someone less experienced and less trained; the issue here is if Russia suffers from heavy casualties, it will keep diluting the force they already had, which means less progress and longer time, which translates to more casualties and a larger replacement cycle. Basically, if Russia can't get Ukraine within the next 2 million or so replacements, they would have broken their replacement cycle; anyone come after those 2 million replacements would probably have low to no training and basically just pressed to serve on the frontline.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Well, I talked to some of the Ukrainian higher-up guys when I was there last year. Trust me, if the Dem is offering to help them, they will take it. The issue is not whether or not the Left and the Right is fighting; the issue here is that if Trump wants anything done, they would have to come through the Democrats, and if Trump gets nothing done and is hostile toward the Dem Congress and Senate, the GOP is going to lose in 2028 because the Dems would say Trump sabotaged the progress.

The Democrats are already counting on that. They will send Trump garbage legislation after garbage legislation, which they are counting on him to veto, simply so they can use that as fodder for 2028.

Do not doubt me on this.

 

[AZ_HighCountry]

Meant to post this earlier. TWZ article focusing on Ukrainian small arms, optics, and handguns:

Ukrainian Soldiers Tell Us Which Guns And Optics Work Best In Combat

Ukrainian troops explain their affinity for HK416s and locally-built UAR-15s rifles, Holosun and Eotech optics, and much more.

www.twz.com

Not surprisingly, the preferred weapon is based on an AR platform. I like the choices in optics. I've used most with zero issues. Holosun optics sit on my weapons.

 

[trabi-tads]

Didn't these so-called western military analysts say Russia would Run out of missiles, drones, weapons, and artillery shells by the end of 2023? Yet we have seen the exact opposite even NATO admitted that Russian artillery shell production was 1.5 times higher than NATO combined. I think the term military analysts should be changed to armchair generals. These so-called military analysts have never served in the military or have qualifications in such matters. Most read multiple sources then put their own twist on things. Russia has been creating new systems to combat drones and still managing to deliver aircraft to Russian forces and foreign customers I think that's positive sign regardless what your opinion or who you support in the conflict. The Lyman counterattack by Ukrainian forces was a big blow to the Russians, but on the flip side Russia has gain quite a lot of areas over the summer. Winter always brings slow if not standstill progress on both sides due to weather. And of course areas like pokrovsk where always going to be slow progress because Ukraine poured a lot of forces into it and built the area up defensively for months/years and urban ware is always slow going I know this from personal experience.
The fact remains, the war continues and it doesn't look like either side is ready to give up.

 

[trabi-tads]

A useful solution for drone attacks in Russia would be firstly detection methods being robust. Secondly using Mi-8, Mi-24, Yak-130, L-39, which all have slower speeds than other fighter jets in Russian arsenal which makes it easier for engaging slow moving drones, but they are also much cheaper to operate and maintain. With simple arms such as guns and igla/verba, or any other short range AA missile would be sufficient. Russia has hundreds of
L-39 available and could be put to good use before finally being fully replaced by Yak-130. But these are only useful if detection of the drones is robust. The Ukrainian turned to using Yak-52 with the second crewman in the rear being armed with a shotgun or light machine and simply flying along side the drone and blasting it. Ukraine had actually posted pictures of such. Simple solution making use with what you already have.

 

[j_hungary]

The Democrats are already counting on that. They will send Trump garbage legislation after garbage legislation, which they are counting on him to veto, simply so they can use that as fodder for 2028.

Do not doubt me on this.

Well, not sure if they will table the rubbish bill, but I do think Trump's ego is bigger than his party, so I don't really think Trump is actually going to work with the Democrats on this. And by the end of the Presidential year, we are going to see a bunch of ads reminding voters how many bills Trump had killed and asking them, do they want another MAGA to be President.....

 

[BigGazza]

So why do you keep reposting maps almost every day and documenting every Russian advance the size of a village?

Territorial advance obviously is the point.

Firstly, I don't... there are many maps I don't post because they show nothing important.

Secondly, while the liberation of territory is the ultimate goal, the priority is to do this job at a minimal cost and keep Russian (conventional) combat power high enough to ward off the hysterical Eurotrash ruling elites from doing something stupid, like triggering a WW-1 redux for the same set of reasons.

Russians will maintain constant pressure and take territory when the loss ratio is assessed as being favourable. Until then the enemy is attritioned. If the enemy chooses to amass reserves for a push and their local forces outmatch the Russians then they withdraw while laying down fire, protecting their manpower reserves and attritioning the enemy as he advances, then establish a new line of balance and rinse-repeat.

Seriously we have seen this dance for years now, and people still don't understand?

 

[BigGazza]

People who don't know the facts on the ground would believe they are "abducting" on the street, I been to Ukraine 6 times in the previous 5 years, helping them and teaching them how to do

Understood.... you appear to be a kool-aid guzzling supporter of the bandera regime and have no concerns that you are fighting for the Nazis?

This does put your comments, such as they are, in a new light. It explains why you refuse to recognise the undeniable facts I listed, and choose to call them "fantasies". Seriously, you deny that the Ukrop regime forcibly abducts its citizens even though the web is packed with videos documenting the practise? Even Budanov admits that Ukropistan is losing 30k troops a month that it needs to replace, but in your mind its just Ruskie agitprop? I suppose the torture cells are all a lie?

Mate, you've backed the wrong horse, and no matter how much you lie about it, reality will not shift to conform to your chosen narratives.

 

[BigGazza]

The problem with casualties is that for every one you lose, you replace that one with someone less experienced and less trained; the issue here is if Russia suffers from heavy casualties, it will keep diluting the force they already had, which means less progress and longer time, which translates to more casualties and a larger replacement cycle. Basically, if Russia can't get Ukraine within the next 2 million or so replacements, they would have broken their replacement cycle; anyone come after those 2 million replacements would probably have low to no training and basically just pressed to serve on the frontline.

Someone is quoting from the 5-Eyes Project Ukraine manuals... Project Ukraines losses and problems onto Russia, and refuse to allow reality to intrude into the NAFO self-imposed safe-space.

Russian "heavy casulaties" only exist in your head. Again, its Ukraine that is covered in huge and obvious mass war-graves, while Russia has no such thing. Russians are managing their war-dead via private internments, no need for hectares of graves and Ikea flags.

BTW its Ukropistan that can't replace its trained and motivated troops, not Russians. Nationalist corps mostly sit in the back as regime Pretorians to protect the elites, or as blockers to keep the conscripts at the front and stop them breaking enmasse. Azov 3rd tried to make a difference and simply fell into the attrition trap, trading some temporary advances for mass casulaties. Azov 12th failed at Dobropolye and nazi errend-boy Prokopenko was demoted as a result.

When this is all over you'll need to go easy on the anti-depressives.