United States elections 2024: Donald Trump Wins
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FuturePAF
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Trump is seen as a change from the current status quo. Kamala literally said she wouldn’t do anything different from Biden. What looks like unrestricted immigration is what comes to many Americans’ minds, as something she won’t stop and Trump would.
As the race tightens, too many people want to stick it to the status quo, and want a dramatic change of course.
Trump looks set to get another term, if current polls hold. The democrats have a broad coalition of people in their party and all of it was needed to get Biden to beat Trump in 2020. That coalition seems to have fractured this time around.
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j_hungary
Professional
Actually, no. Trump is not a change from the status quo, he WAS the status quo......he was half the reason why people hated another Trump v Biden race.
Notice that many people who are independent wanted change, and that change is to see how much Kamala deviated from Biden, and most of her popularity is basically a measure of the deviation of her policy.
The issue with Trump vs Harris as many analysis already said, Trump is at his ceiling, he ain't gonna get more vote, because you would have know him and his policy by now as he had ran for 3 campaigns, there are basically nothing to add to his policy, and if you like him you like him, if you don't, you don't. Harris still have room to growth, because people still want to get to know her and her policy. The issue is, if the dem dumped Biden before Democratic Primary and supported Kamala Harris, they will probably outright gonna win this, but the dem waited too long and there are basically not enough time to learn about Harris and her Policy, hence people assume they are the same as Biden.
On the other hand, if we go by average poll on battleground state, Harris still has a slight edge over trump as she was projected to win PA, WI, MI and NV but not by much especially in PA, she is up by 0.3 according to 538 and 1.8 by NBC News Poll (not MSNBC). She was ties in NC and lose GA and AZ to Trump in 1 to 3%. And she only need to win PA, WI and MI to win the race, PA is the key and I think Harris campaign knows that, and that's why she forego a lot of national engagement and focus on campaigning in PA.
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Yommie
Elite Member
Polls overestimate Democrats by 4 or 5 or 6 points. This year GOP and Democrat registration are about the same, but the pollsters refuse to change their sampling to adjust.
I studied statistics in university. Simple random sampling is the most accurate. No pollster uses simple random sampling.
j_hungary
Professional
That's average poll from 155 different source in 538
538 didn't do any poll, they interpret all the poll conducted in the US.
Pollster Ratings
FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.
Davey Crockett
Elite Member
Yommie
Elite Member
538 is too biased to Democrats. RCP is the most accurate and they have a good track record.
j_hungary
Professional
Are you stupid or can't read?
538 is NOT a polling organisation, they average ALL the poll done in the United States included both left wing poll and right ring poll such as Real Clear..
You can't be biased if you are not the one doing the poll and just summarise all the others.
FuturePAF
THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
Actually, no. Trump is not a change from the status quo, he WAS the status quo......he was half the reason why people hated another Trump v Biden race.
Notice that many people who are independent wanted change, and that change is to see how much Kamala deviated from Biden, and most of her popularity is basically a measure of the deviation of her policy.
The issue with Trump vs Harris as many analysis already said, Trump is at his ceiling, he ain't gonna get more vote, because you would have know him and his policy by now as he had ran for 3 campaigns, there are basically nothing to add to his policy, and if you like him you like him, if you don't, you don't. Harris still have room to growth, because people still want to get to know her and her policy. The issue is, if the dem dumped Biden before Democratic Primary and supported Kamala Harris, they will probably outright gonna win this, but the dem waited too long and there are basically not enough time to learn about Harris and her Policy, hence people assume they are the same as Biden.
On the other hand, if we go by average poll on battleground state, Harris still has a slight edge over trump as she was projected to win PA, WI, MI and NV but not by much especially in PA, she is up by 0.3 according to 538 and 1.8 by NBC News Poll (not MSNBC). She was ties in NC and lose GA and AZ to Trump in 1 to 3%. And she only need to win PA, WI and MI to win the race, PA is the key and I think Harris campaign knows that, and that's why she forego a lot of national engagement and focus on campaigning in PA.
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ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
A lot of people aren’t motivated to vote for her. As Obama said, a lot of people are thinking of sitting this one out. Others are thinking of a protest vote.
Harris went on the view and couldn’t say what she would do differently than Biden, as if she said something would look like disloyalty to Biden, or second guessing him.
She needs to lay out a plan to motivate people to see how their lives could improve.
j_hungary
Professional
By the way, I just checked RealClear poll, even RealClear stated Harris will win GA, MI, AZ and draw in WI and NC, that would already gave Harris 268 vs Trump's 244, with 2 literal state in toss up, that still give Harris the edge. Because she would need to win either WI (Will give her 278) or NC (Will give her 284) while Trump need to win both to win the race (Both then he get 270), and that is from REALCLEAR. Your most "trusted" source
www.realclearpolling.com
And real clear is a known right wing pollster, that show how bad Trump's campaign was.
Latest Polls 2025, 2026, 2028 | RealClearPolling
Stay up to date on all the latest 2025, 2026, 2028 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.
And real clear is a known right wing pollster, that show how bad Trump's campaign was.
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Yommie
Elite Member
Kamala is not as charismatic as Hillary or Obama. She's very slow.
Yommie
Elite Member
By the way, I just checked RealClear poll, even RealClear stated Harris will win GA, MI, AZ and draw in WI and NC, that would already gave Harris 268 vs Trump's 244, with 2 literal state in toss up, that still give Harris the edge. Because she would need to win either WI (Will give her 278) or NC (Will give her 284) while Trump need to win both to win the race (Both then he get 270), and that is from REALCLEAR. Your most "trusted" source
Latest Polls 2025, 2026, 2028 | RealClearPolling
Stay up to date on all the latest 2025, 2026, 2028 election and state of the union polls. Gain valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and stay ahead of the latest trends.
View attachment 71718
And real clear is a known right wing pollster, that show how bad Trump's campaign was.
This ain't a covid year like 2020. Chance of Trump winning one of MI, WI, PA is very high. AZ, NC, GA are solid GOP this year. In fact, they normally are.
j_hungary
Professional
It really depends on states.
As I said, if she would have been the Dem nominee from before the Primaries, she WILL win this without a doubt, because this give her a lot more time (6+ months instead of 4 months) to know her and to formulate her policy.
The race is right now in literally toss up is because she don't have enough time to sell herself. Which you wouldn't have if you just start campaigning at the backend of July. So it all come down to anything else.
The problem is, the issue with cost of living is not because of any mishandling of policy, it's because it's COVID, I mean, not just US is suffering from the inflation and stagnation of their economy, that's a worldwide problem since we did nothing in 2020-2022 as the world in lockdown. What she is doing is smart actually, by selling "recovery can takes times and we are in the right direction" then gamble on some new policy that may or may not work, because you risk alienating your already established base is you gamble on new things, better to persuade people that in your camp this will work then to try something new and maybe piss off your camp.
j_hungary
Professional
Dude, REAL CLEAR just disagreed with you. The one that you said "it's the most trusted" And if real clear itself didn't have Trump win PA in 3 or 4 points (again, They are right biased) My money would be Dem would win it.
Yommie
Elite Member
My money is on GOP.
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