Bulgarian military analysis.
Iran counters Israel attacks with 100km-range air defense missiles
By Boyko Nikolov On
Oct 26, 2024
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In a dramatic escalation of tensions, Iranian air defense units successfully intercepted several missiles launched by Israel during the early hours of October 26. This response came shortly after Israeli forces executed a series of missile strikes targeting the Iranian capital, Tehran. While the scale of the assault was relatively small, preliminary reports indicate that Iranian forces effectively neutralized all incoming threats.
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Conflicting accounts have emerged regarding the number of waves in which Israel launched its attacks. While Western and Israeli sources differ, Iranian reports suggest multiple waves were involved. Israel’s strategy relied on long-range air-launched missiles, fired from positions well outside Iranian airspace, minimizing the risk to its aircraft.
Hours prior to the Israeli operation, Russian officials alerted Iran to the impending strikes, sharing intelligence about potential targets and Israeli maneuvers, according to sources who spoke with Sky News Arabia. This collaboration underscores Russia’s commitment to maintaining regional stability and aiding Iran in preparing its defenses. Despite sustaining damage to military installations in Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam provinces—resulting in the tragic loss of two Iranian soldiers—Iranian authorities reported that their air defenses intercepted many of the attacking missiles.
Photo credit: IAF
According to Axios, Israel directly communicated with Iran through intermediaries before the strikes, urging restraint and warning of a stronger retaliation if civilian casualties occurred. On October 25, Dutch Foreign Minister Kaspar Veldkamp also called for de-escalation during a conversation with his Iranian counterpart. The following day, the Israeli Defense Forces declared the successful completion of their air operation, which targeted air defense systems and missile production facilities while intentionally avoiding nuclear and oil infrastructure to focus solely on military objectives.
Iran condemned the Israeli strikes as a breach of international law, asserting its right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. Whether Iran will retaliate remains uncertain; sources from Sky News Arabia indicate that Iran signaled, through intermediaries, a decision to refrain from immediate retaliation, while reports from Tasnim suggest that Tehran is ready to respond and cautioned that Israel would face a proportional counteraction.
Simultaneously, the United States urged Iran to halt its aggressive actions, warning that continued hostilities could lead to American support for Israel’s defense and potential consequences if tensions escalate further.
Photo credit: AFP
Israel’s strategy mirrors past operations against Syrian targets, particularly following the downing of an Israeli F-16I by a Syrian S-200 missile in 2018. Leaked U.S. intelligence also suggests that Israel may be contemplating the use of long-range air-launched ballistic missiles against Iranian positions.
In response to the initial wave of attacks, Iranian forces deployed medium-range surface-to-air missiles [SAMs] to counter the Israeli missiles. For subsequent strikes, Iran utilized long-range defense systems capable of intercepting missiles from distances exceeding 100 kilometers—an important advancement.
Among Iran’s air defense arsenal are upgraded Russian-made S-300PMU-2 systems, known for their advanced interception capabilities. While the standard 48N6E2 missiles have a range of 200 kilometers, these systems are reportedly compatible with the more advanced 48N6DM missiles, which boast interception ranges of up to 250 kilometers and are designed to counter hypersonic threats.
Photo credit: IAF
Iran acquired these upgraded S-300 missiles in 2020, speculated to include the 48N6DM variant, which has successfully been tested by China against targets traveling faster than Mach 8 at a range of 250 kilometers—outperforming Israel’s air-launched missile technology.
In addition to the S-300 systems, Iran has a diverse array of long-range air defense capabilities. Its Soviet-era S-200D system, dating back to the 1990s, remains one of the longest-ranged options, capable of engaging targets at distances up to 300 kilometers. Although modernized for enhanced mobility, the S-200 is primarily designed to defend against larger threats like ballistic missiles rather than smaller aerial targets.
Iran’s most advanced domestically developed air defense system, the Bavar-373, reportedly reached an impressive range of 300 kilometers as of April, following the integration of the new Sayyad-4B missile. This system may have played a critical role in recent interceptions. Another homegrown system, the Khordad 15, offers a lighter alternative to the Bavar-373, with an engagement range exceeding 100 kilometers, although details about its deployment remain limited.
Photo credit: Army Recognition
Iran’s reliance on ground-based air defenses is largely attributed to its constrained inventory of modern fighter aircraft. This multi-layered defense network poses a significant challenge to Israel and its allies, reinforcing Iran’s extensive missile deterrent strategy. The sophisticated integration of these ground defenses with cutting-edge electronic warfare and radar systems further bolsters Iran’s defensive posture in the region.
