PAF J-35AE - News, Updates and Discussions

[Michael]

Probable Cause:

1, Fighter version. J-35 (WS21) or J-35 (WS-19). WS21 can be supplied in large quantities at present; large quantities of WS19 will have to wait until after 3 years.

2, Funding issues.

3, SAC is currently undergoing a massive plant relocation.SAC's complete relocation program costs CNY 8,636 million and will take 5 years. The first phase of the project is scheduled to be completed by November 30, 2025. This massive relocation project will affect SAC's production capacity in the near future. The current priority for SAC is to ensure delivery of the J-15/J-16 series. Therefore, there is reason to believe that the serial production of the J-35 series will be carried out directly at the new facility. However, the new facility is currently under construction.

 

[Yasser76]

I think after SAC make a new facility it may not be an exaggeration to say China will be building more 5th Gen aircraft every year then the rest of the world (including US) combined!

 

[mythbuster]

When airchief of paf says we are getting J35 , his words are as good as signing the contract.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

According to Chinese tradition, if PAF has already agreed with AVIC on the purchase of the J35, this Zhuhai Airshow is the best time for the signing ceremony.
Now, the Zhuhai Airshow is over. Obviously, we haven't seen any news on this matter. This indicates that there is no agreement between the two sides. The exact reason is unknown to us. But that's the way it is.
So, it is absolutely impossible for PAF to get J35 in two years.

J-10C signing ceremony was not made public until much later.

 

[Michael]

J-10C signing ceremony was not made public until much later.

Again.
Please don't compare the J-10CE with the J-35. They are not at all in the same level of importance and their geopolitical impact is completely different.

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There is an additional message, but no reliable source has confirmed the authenticity of the message.

There are many military bloggers on Chinese social media claiming it.
The biggest foreign procurement customer at this year's Zhuhai Airshow is Pakistan, but the list of purchases and the amount was not disclosed.

Usually, the reliability of these news is very low. For entertainment purposes only!

I think after SAC make a new facility it may not be an exaggeration to say China will be building more 5th Gen aircraft every year then the rest of the world (including US) combined!

As I've said before, AVIC plans to make the J-35 the main product for future exports. So, its production will be very high.

 

[Deino]

When airchief of paf says we are getting J35 , his words are as good as signing the contract.

Yes, but still not a hint for a delivery date in 2025 and the reason is, you cannot compare both fighter acquisitions

 

[SiliconBit (silicon0000)]

According to Chinese tradition, if PAF has already agreed with AVIC on the purchase of the J35, this Zhuhai Airshow is the best time for the signing ceremony.
Now, the Zhuhai Airshow is over. Obviously, we haven't seen any news on this matter. This indicates that there is no agreement between the two sides. The exact reason is unknown to us. But that's the way it is.
So, it is absolutely impossible for PAF to get J35 in two years.

Agree with your 2-year point and I still think 2028 is the appropriate time or maybe Current air cheif before retirement might do arrangement for few examples (2-6 jets and rest will come by 2028) to take the crown of 5th Gen induction in his name.

But consider this signing thing as a secondary thing and nothing more than a formality. There might be no announcement of signing deal at all. Better not to tag that signing with delivery timelines. SAC Plant relocation point is also very valid point.

 

[Michael]

Yes’s, but still not a hint for a delivery date in 2025 and the reason is, you cannot compare both fighter acquisitions

Indeed. avic can't start mass production of J-35 in 2025, much less export J-35 to PAF.

The SAC relocation program was planned very early and this plan was adopted and started in 2023. No one is going to build a new production line on the old factory site that has already decided to relocate. Current sources indicate that Phase I is scheduled to be completed by November 30, 2025 We are not yet sure if the first phase will include the J-35 production line. If the first phase of the project includes the J-35 production line, then the serial production of the J-35 may start in 2026. if the first phase of the project does not include the J-35 production line, then there will be a further delay in the acquisition of the J-35 by PAF.

From another source, it is indicated that the construction of the WS-19's twin pulsating production line will be completed by the end of 2025. So, I think the first phase of the SAC relocation is likely to include the J-35 production line. However, this is just my personal guess.

 

[Quwa]

Yes, but still not a hint for a delivery date in 2025 and the reason is, you cannot compare both fighter acquisitions

Indeed. avic can't start mass production of J-35 in 2025, much less export J-35 to PAF.

The SAC relocation program was planned very early and this plan was adopted and started in 2023. No one is going to build a new production line on the old factory site that has already decided to relocate. Current sources indicate that Phase I is scheduled to be completed by November 30, 2025 We are not yet sure if the first phase will include the J-35 production line. If the first phase of the project includes the J-35 production line, then the serial production of the J-35 may start in 2026. if the first phase of the project does not include the J-35 production line, then there will be a further delay in the acquisition of the J-35 by PAF.

From another source, it is indicated that the construction of the WS-19's twin pulsating production line will be completed by the end of 2025. So, I think the first phase of the SAC relocation is likely to include the J-35 production line. However, this is just my personal guess.

IMO...the PAF wouldn't have bought J-10CEs if the J-35A had been available so soon.

In fact, for a time, there was a school of thought in the PAF that figured it'd be best to wait for next-gen and skip the J-10CE.

Clearly, at some point, the PAF AHQ got the memo that the J-35A wouldn't be available as early as they'd hope, and hence the J-10CE purchase.

 

[Ak01]

IMO...the PAF wouldn't have bought J-10CEs if the J-35A had been available so soon.

In fact, for a time, there was a school of thought in the PAF that figured it'd be best to wait for next-gen and skip the J-10CE.

Clearly, at some point, the PAF AHQ got the memo that the J-35A wouldn't be available as early as they'd hope, and hence the J-10CE purchase.

i suspect a J-35 deal wont materialise until the 2030's, around then we will probably get a deal for PAC to start converting the JF-17 line to be able to produce J-35's, maybe the first airframes will start rolling off the line 2031 etc. Until then probably dripfeed JF-17s and probably take on more J-10c's (we saw another batch airframe at zhuhai which is probably for us).

 

[Deino]

i suspect a J-35 deal wont materialise until the 2030's, around then we will probably get a deal for PAC to start converting the JF-17 line to be able to produce J-35's, maybe the first airframes will start rolling off the line 2031 etc. Until then probably dripfeed JF-17s and probably take on more J-10c's (we saw another batch airframe at zhuhai which is probably for us).

No, in both cases!

1. CHina will never transfer a whole production line of the J-35A to Pakistan or any other country.

2. This one was clearly just another prototype - both differed slightly and given we saw most likely a third one too there is even the evolution recognisable. I think you guys need to accept, none of them is for Pakistan and the PAF has to wait until it is in PLAAF service for some years!

 

[mythbuster]

No, in both cases!

1. CHina will never transfer a whole production line of the J-35A to Pakistan or any other country.

2. This one was clearly just another prototype - both differed slightly and given we saw most likely a third one too there is even the evolution recognisable. I think you guys need to accept, none of them is for Pakistan and the PAF has to wait until it is in PLAAF service for some years!

If China wants to mass produce and sell J 35 in the international market she has to co opt other countries in the production and supply chain systems ...in the coming years there will be fierce competition between China and America in the international defence market ......it will be buyers market not sellers market anymore .

 

[Ak01]

No, in both cases!

1. CHina will never transfer a whole production line of the J-35A to Pakistan or any other country.

2. This one was clearly just another prototype - both differed slightly and given we saw most likely a third one too there is even the evolution recognisable. I think you guys need to accept, none of them is for Pakistan and the PAF has to wait until it is in PLAAF service for some years!

the other batch of J-10s is what im referring to.

In terms of J-35 production lines, the reality is the PAF will seek some form of workshare, when i talk about converting the JF-17 production line, i refer to a similar agreement, where China and Pakistan together produce a tailored variant and part of it is produced in Pakistan. If China will not do this, i guarantee you the PAF is not going to buy in and will happily go running to the Turks who will agree to such a share. The PAF is not going to let PAC die, it would be a strategic blunder and the JF-17 production line needs to be turned into something. An NGFA being built there is the only realistic and or viable alternative, worst case, perhaps if the PAF went in on Kizelelma, then maybe theyd be produced there, but its more likely that the J-35 or the TFX will be the next fighters to roll off the line at Kamra beyond the JF-17.

This is the reality.

 

[studsmart]

Probable Cause:

1, Fighter version. J-35 (WS21) or J-35 (WS-19). WS21 can be supplied in large quantities at present; large quantities of WS19 will have to wait until after 3 years.

2, Funding issues.

3, SAC is currently undergoing a massive plant relocation.SAC's complete relocation program costs CNY 8,636 million and will take 5 years. The first phase of the project is scheduled to be completed by November 30, 2025. This massive relocation project will affect SAC's production capacity in the near future. The current priority for SAC is to ensure delivery of the J-15/J-16 series. Therefore, there is reason to believe that the serial production of the J-35 series will be carried out directly at the new facility. However, the new facility is currently under construction.

why is ws19 considered better than ws21 ?

 

[Deino]

the other batch of J-10s is what im referring to.

In terms of J-35 production lines, the reality is the PAF will seek some form of workshare, when i talk about converting the JF-17 production line, i refer to a similar agreement, where China and Pakistan together produce a tailored variant and part of it is produced in Pakistan. If China will not do this, i guarantee you the PAF is not going to buy in and will happily go running to the Turks who will agree to such a share. The PAF is not going to let PAC die, it would be a strategic blunder and the JF-17 production line needs to be turned into something. An NGFA being built there is the only realistic and or viable alternative, worst case, perhaps if the PAF went in on Kizelelma, then maybe theyd be produced there, but its more likely that the J-35 or the TFX will be the next fighters to roll off the line at Kamra beyond the JF-17.

This is the reality.

And youthful the Turks will give Pakistan the same amount of price reduction like China? Even more so the Turkish fighter alone since built in Europe in much slammer numbers will be much more expensive (if it ever will be ready that soon).

As such you guys are funny … on the one side demanding it as soon as possible, in the best if not better configuration like China, to be built in Pakistan and best paid by China … just think about it and then tell me how likely this is.