Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Persian Gulf]

FYI @Immortals

 

[Garcia Sea]

It is becoming clearer by the day that the surprise attack was an extremely carefully prepared campaign against Syria by the U.S., Turkey, and Israel.
Israel did not agree to the ceasefire because it was tired, but only because it was fully prepared for the surprise attack, and only temporarily ceased to avoid blatant collaboration with al-Qaeda.
Unfortunately, this war has been conducted entirely according to Israel's wishes, and everything said and done by those who claimed victory was a mistake.
Many Syrian soldiers are realizing this, which is why they are running away without fighting.
I can only say that the results of the reformists coming to power in Iran have been horrendous, and they should take responsibility and head for Homs now.
We know what will happen when Trump takes office after all the allies have been attacked, and even if there are negotiations there, they are surrender negotiations against Iran,

 

[jauk]

If really Shia Crescent's structure fails, political leadership in Iran will not have political arguments against the bomb... they are against it because of fear that more nuclear-armed armies in the Middle East could lead to serious damage to Iranian strategic edge and long-hand ability... if this happens, then allies are no more reliable, the bomb is last stand...

‘Shia Crescent’? MSM anyone.

 

[Lulldapull]

It is becoming clearer by the day that the surprise attack was an extremely carefully prepared campaign against Syria by the U.S., Turkey, and Israel.
Israel did not agree to the ceasefire because it was tired, but only because it was fully prepared for the surprise attack, and only temporarily ceased to avoid blatant collaboration with al-Qaeda.
Unfortunately, this war has been conducted entirely according to Israel's wishes, and everything said and done by those who claimed victory was a mistake.
Many Syrian soldiers are realizing this, which is why they are running away without fighting.
I can only say that the results of the reformists coming to power in Iran have been horrendous, and they should take responsibility and head for Homs now.
We know what will happen when Trump takes office after all the allies have been attacked, and even if there are negotiations there, they are surrender negotiations against Iran,

Please.....no?

Everybody knows what yous sayin, but nobody is runnin away except recently inducted inexperienced conscripts in Syria.

This will all be reversed given sufficient time.

 

[vmro]

‘Shia Crescent’? MSM anyone.

Ok, sorry, my intention was nothing offensive, I will use Axis of Resistance...yes, i follow msm often, just to assure myself that modern professional journalism is worst profession after politicians...Symbiotic relationship...Shia Crescent doesn't seem to be insulting in my eyes, but I found that godfather is Jordanian king, so you are probably right...my bad, but no evil intention...cheers

 

[jauk]

Dedicated to those that shamelessly post anti-Iranian propaganda:

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[jauk]

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[Garcia Sea]

The collapse of SAA's lines of defense is now obvious.
Even Hama fell without any resistance at all, and the much-publicized reinforcements from Iraq are nowhere to be seen.
Once Homs falls, there is no longer any obstacle in the way to Damascus.

Israel's full-scale attack on Lebanon since September was probably intended to neutralize Hezbollah as a prelude to this Syrian campaign.
While the Shiites were intoxicated by the propaganda of illusory victories and Israeli struggles, Israel was planning and executing an extremely facetiously perfect plan for victory.
Iran's defense posture clearly needs a fundamental overhaul, but the situation is urgent and now is not the time for a leisurely reorganization.
The IRGC should send a large ground force directly into Syria before all is said and done.

 

[Immortals]

The collapse of SAA's lines of defense is now obvious.
Even Hama fell without any resistance at all, and the much-publicized reinforcements from Iraq are nowhere to be seen.
Once Homs falls, there is no longer any obstacle in the way to Damascus.

Israel's full-scale attack on Lebanon since September was probably intended to neutralize Hezbollah as a prelude to this Syrian campaign.
While the Shiites were intoxicated by the propaganda of illusory victories and Israeli struggles, Israel was planning and executing an extremely facetiously perfect plan for victory.
Iran's defense posture clearly needs a fundamental overhaul, but the situation is urgent and now is not the time for a leisurely reorganization.
The IRGC should send a large ground force directly into Syria before all is said and done.

Let’s not forget over 10 IRGC Senior Commanders in Syria have been killed in last 2 years including the infamous Damascus embassy bombing that took out the head of Syria Quds Force.

So it’s no shock the IRGC are in disarray. This is what happens when you think Generals and key Commanders are easily replaceable.

Sinwar and Muhammad Deif’s 10/7 plot did more damage to the Resistance than last 20 years of West/Zionist operations. Sure Israeli image took a hit world wide, but the winners of war write the history and share the spoils.

 

[Immortals]

It appears that while the Axis got a few punches in against Israel (and certaintly damaged its protected image among the civilized world), the West/Israel made the Axis pay dearly for that.

The 10/7 attacks we can debate how much Iran knew or didn’t know, but seemed to point to a Hamas driven agenda with no real end goals. Post a successful 10/7 it’s not exactly clear what Hamas thought would happen?

Open war with Israel by the Axis once and for all?

Or

Use some hostages to negotiate better terms on the blockade and more rights for Palestinians in Gaza?

One can only speculate. But Both assumptions turned out to be completely wrong.

Pre 10/7:

Fully intact HZ leadership that had military facilities all around Lebanon/Syria with massive amount of arms.

Peak Hamas/Islamic Jihad military capability that could fire 5,000 rockets in just 2 weeks along with domestic ANTI tank production and a very early capability at air defense against low flying craft.

A stable Syria with Iran still taking monthly bombings on its forces and assets but largely a fully entrenched Assad that kept the terrorists stuck in open prison of Idlib.

A still alive Raisi and conservative led Iran.

Compare to now:

Now look where we are today. Hezbollah is in rebuild mode. Hamas/IJ are basically loose banded cells of remnant fighters with no coherent leadership or capability besides nuisance attacks. Unclear what future of Gaza or the Palestinian resistance will look like.

Turkey and Rebels were highly emboldened at a defanged resistance. They saw that Iran and Axis are weakened and HZ likely doesn’t have the operational organization to re enter Syria in a massive way and be exposed to Israeli airstrikes. Iraqi militias are clearly not in the same mindset of 2012-2020 in terms of bailing Assad out again after so much blood they sacrificed against ISIS/Al Queda. Iran also has faced significant losses in Syria to its Syrian command structure.

Not sure what the future holds in 2025, but momentum is on Israel’s side with Trump going to be fully backing Bibi and his gang of murders. Israeli society might be in uproar and dysfunctional, but that isn’t existential threat to the Zionist regime.

Iran cannot afford to be complacent and needs to have serious discussions about a nuclear deterrent and serious discussions how vital Syria is to the Iranian security architecture. It used to be a red line, but some might argue that the resistance model is not enough and a shift to a nuclear weapons umbrella may shield Iran’s territorial integrity better in the long run.

One thing is for certain this status quo of playing both sides of the fence (just enough support to Axis groups to cause pain to the West, but not enough to change the regional dynamics) is going to lead to further weakening of the axis.

Curious to hear others opinions on the matter.

 

[OldTwilight]

It's proven again , our old 70s , 80s , 90s decision makers can not make quick decision.

 

[Immortals]

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A good synopsis on what it is going wrong in Syria by a decent source.

His estimation that HTS numbers 20,000 seems quite low and I would suspect it rivals HZ in size so closer to about 50,000 + SNA you could be looking at a force of around 75,000 possibly as high as 100,000 assuming a massive surge in manpower in recent years.

That should still pale in comparison to Assad + NDF + militias which at the minimum should be around 200,000 assuming basic military manpower extrapolation of a country the size of Syria. Also the Kurds are against the SNA/Turkish plot and they should number at least 50,000 as well if not greater.

The biggest game changing factor here was Turkey when they halted Syrian advance in 2020 via massive airstrikes on Assad that destroyed some 300+ vehicles and equipment. Russia and Iran did not press Turkey hard enough on dropping support for Idlib province. Both Russia and Iran were too content to having most of Syria and in case of Iran was too focused on U.S. presence and the Syrian Kurds control of the oil fields. That obsession lead to a lack of monitoring of the terrorists rebuilding.

Now Russia/Syria/Iran are not the IDF that can drop WW2 amounts of ordances on terrorist forces. They cannot run 350+ sorties a day.

Unfortunately the only way to blunt the opposition is wide spread systemic bombing to completely remove their sources of manpower, equipment, and access to fuel/natural sources.

Or else trying to fight this all on the ground will be expensive and time consuming.

 

[Immortals]

It's proven again , our old 70s , 80s , 90s decision makers can not make quick decision.

It all comes back to the decision to not uphold deterrence in Syria against Israel from 2014-2020. 300+ strikes by Israel over the years on Iran backed forces alone Now you see the consequences when an enemy is no longer afraid of you, others (Turkey) no longer take your threats seriously.

If Iran kept its red lines in Syria intact, we could bring in the IRIAF to T3 airbase and use F-4’s and F-5’s bombard the opposition + IRGC drone teams. It would give IRIAF Great War time experience. But now anything brought to Syria will just be bombed by Israel like their attack on T3 and Iran’s drone team several years ago.

We sorely miss Solemani and his circle of advisors. Turkey and terrorists were able to protect Jolani for 10+ years from Russia/Syria airstrikes.

Iran couldn’t protect Solemani for 1 WEEK when it was decided it was time to assassinate him by The West (Trump + Bibi)

 

[OldTwilight]

at this rate IRI will lose Iran by increasing the price of everything and not increasing the salary , with the questionable law like " Hejab law " and wide spread curroption and incompetency...

 

[OldTwilight]

It all comes back to the decision to not uphold deterrence in Syria against Israel from 2014-2020. 300+ strikes by Israel over the years on Iran backed forces alone Now you see the consequences when an enemy is no longer afraid of you, others (Turkey) no longer take your threats seriously.

If Iran kept its red lines in Syria intact, we could bring in the IRIAF to T3 airbase and use F-4’s and F-5’s bombard the opposition + IRGC drone teams. It would give IRIAF Great War time experience. But now anything brought to Syria will just be bombed by Israel like their attack on T3 and Iran’s drone team several years ago.

We sorely miss Solemani and his circle of advisors. Turkey and terrorists were able to protect Jolani for 10+ years from Russia/Syria airstrikes.

Iran couldn’t protect Solemani for 1 WEEK when it was decided it was time to assassinate him by The West (Trump + Bibi)

I was against this so called " Strategic patient" , I raised my words against it , but even in a forum like military.ir that I was one of the oldest member, the pro IR did unofficially ban me ...

It was " Strategic cowardice" ....