Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[Garcia Sea]

Israeli annexation of southern Syria is no longer inevitable.
The eastern part is now under U.S. occupation, while the northeastern and central parts are under Kurdish occupation.
The area from the northwest to Damascus is now the territory of HTS, which has united with Turkey.
The Syrian state no longer exists and has been completely dismantled.

Let me be clear, this is the future of Iran.
What the U.S. and Israel are aiming for is a future in which the Arabs of Huzestan will be separated and the Kurds and Azerbaijanis in the north will be independent.
Iran will lose its sea and oil fields, leaving only the central desert.

Palestine, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria are all destroyed,
Iraq has also been partitioned and stripped of its sovereignty by the Kurds and Sunnis.
Iran cannot be the only exception.
Such a future will come as long as the Iranian leadership does not wake up and continues to flee.

 

[mangekyo]

Israeli annexation of southern Syria is no longer inevitable.
The eastern part is now under U.S. occupation, while the northeastern and central parts are under Kurdish occupation.
The area from the northwest to Damascus is now the territory of HTS, which has united with Turkey.
The Syrian state no longer exists and has been completely dismantled.

Let me be clear, this is the future of Iran.
What the U.S. and Israel are aiming for is a future in which the Arabs of Huzestan will be separated and the Kurds and Azerbaijanis in the north will be independent.
Iran will lose its sea and oil fields, leaving only the central desert.

Palestine, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria are all destroyed,
Iraq has also been partitioned and stripped of its sovereignty by the Kurds and Sunnis.
Iran cannot be the only exception.
Such a future will come as long as the Iranian leadership does not wake up and continues to flee.

Every great empire has sought world dominion. Its not just Iran whos next. They are going to come for every country until none is left.

 

[Immortals]

. I was in agreement with you about Nasrallah I didn't think he utilized his military tools well. And I didn't like the direction he was taking the movement. Despite being a great populist leader for the AoR.

Nasrallah was never a war type guy. Not in his old age. In his youth sure. Even the 2006 cross border raid was a mistake since he never thought it would turn into a war. He would never have done it if he knew it would be a war.

Once you understand that you realize HZ was never going to go all out for Gaza - another entity. An entity who during the Syrian civil war went against it and Shiites allied to Iran.

Nasrallah was also too arrogant and cared more about never ending speeches than fight. The beepers was his idea because he thought cellphones can get hacked too easily. Yet instead of buying beepers from Iran he went to a random international company.

Next, he over played his hand regarding the deterrence he thought he had. He probably didn’t think Israel had fully infiltrated his inner circle and knew the location of every key member.

I rightfully criticized him and said his hubris would be his down fall.

Now how much did Iran constrain him as well? Who knows.

Now people will ask what then what was Hamas thinking. That's a whole other discussion. But reason Hamas kept it secret was for it to succeed. Israeli military and intelligence are very active in and around Gaza. More than anywhere else pre-October 7. And the project was years in the making and couldn't afford to be compromised. Hamas was instead was trying to publicly signal to allies of a big event over Jerusalem and a need for unified fronts to be applied in practice. Nobody really took it seriously because it just wasn't anticipated and nobody thought Hamas could pull off a attack of such scope. Or wanted to.

Hamas got too ahead of itself. After the 2021 skirmish where it fired 5000 rockets and forced Israel to a ceasefire, the world was in awe. A blockaded group in an open air prison had built enough deterrence to at least survive from Israeli expansion attempts.

However, Hamas single handily destroyed the AoR with 10/7 attack, much like Imperial Japan caused the Axis in WW2 to lose by surprise attacking USA at Pearl Harbor and dragging them into the war.

Hamas dragged the resistance into a war they didn’t even want to fight. Assad didn’t want to fight that war, Nasrallah didn’t want to fight that war, Khamenai didn’t want that war.

You had a bunch of old men trying to keep what they had built. A recipe for disaster. And in the end they lost it all despite the cautious approach.

In the end Iran lost pretty much everything it invested in the Levant. Likely damages (including loans to Syria) cost Iran $50B+ in last 15 years. The personnel cost was high, tens of generals and key members of its Quds Force. And hundreds of officers.

If Deif and Sinwar were tired and wanted to go blazing that’s fine, but they had no right to drag all of Gaza into death with them against an enemy that commits war crimes like its drinking water.

In the end iran and the AoR went down due its weakest member (Hamas) deciding for the collective that day of judgement has begun.

If Solemani was alive, Deif and Sinwar would never have done 10/7. Solemani was the reason they went from civilians with bottle rockets and AK-47’s in the early 2000’s to homemade heavy rockets and ATGMs with skilled soldier .

Dark days are ahead for Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran.

 

[Immortals]

Every great empire has sought world dominion. Its not just Iran whos next. They are going to come for every country until none is left.

You can thank Putin and Xi for that. They refused to align themselves with each other let alone Iran. They still are far from strategic alliance.

Hell until 2022, Putin was still trying to be accepted by the West, all the while they moved closer to his border and planted sleeper cells in his circle (Wagner forces). Go look at how many assassination attempts Putin has had in last 2 years, he has a whole dedicated security just built for him and him only. Who loyalty he knows from the inside out being former KGB.

Russia and China are in a rude awakening. Russia is already fighting for its life. Putin is getting older, his health isn’t great. Russia was built around Putin like Soviet Union was built around Stalin. West is just waiting for the right opportunity.

China has no allies. Just Pakistan, but Pakistan Generals are compromised with China’s enemy (USA). The west is starting the anti Chinese rhetoric and it has a massive demographics problem as its country ages rapidly and no one has children.

If Iran, China, Russia don’t unite soon they will die alone fighting off US/NATO on their own rather than together. Unfortunately, Mao and Putin and their lone wolf mentality mean that the West will achieve world order.

 

[Immortals]

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Where is the “Everything is awesome” crowd now?

What a disgrace

 

[Mehdipersian]

Nasrallah was never a war type guy. Not in his old age. In his youth sure. Even the 2006 cross border raid was a mistake since he never thought it would turn into a war. He would never have done it if he knew it would be a war.

Once you understand that you realize HZ was never going to go all out for Gaza - another entity. An entity who during the Syrian civil war went against it and Shiites allied to Iran.

Nasrallah was also too arrogant and cared more about never ending speeches than fight. The beepers was his idea because he thought cellphones can get hacked too easily. Yet instead of buying beepers from Iran he went to a random international company.

Next, he over played his hand regarding the deterrence he thought he had. He probably didn’t think Israel had fully infiltrated his inner circle and knew the location of every key member.

I rightfully criticized him and said his hubris would be his down fall.

Now how much did Iran constrain him as well? Who knows.



Hamas got too ahead of itself. After the 2021 skirmish where it fired 5000 rockets and forced Israel to a ceasefire, the world was in awe. A blockaded group in an open air prison had built enough deterrence to at least survive from Israeli expansion attempts.

However, Hamas single handily destroyed the AoR with 10/7 attack, much like Imperial Japan caused the Axis in WW2 to lose by surprise attacking USA at Pearl Harbor and dragging them into the war.

Hamas dragged the resistance into a war they didn’t even want to fight. Assad didn’t want to fight that war, Nasrallah didn’t want to fight that war, Khamenai didn’t want that war.

You had a bunch of old men trying to keep what they had built. A recipe for disaster. And in the end they lost it all despite the cautious approach.

In the end Iran lost pretty much everything it invested in the Levant. Likely damages (including loans to Syria) cost Iran $50B+ in last 15 years. The personnel cost was high, tens of generals and key members of its Quds Force. And hundreds of officers.

If Deif and Sinwar were tired and wanted to go blazing that’s fine, but they had no right to drag all of Gaza into death with them against an enemy that commits war crimes like its drinking water.

In the end iran and the AoR went down due its weakest member (Hamas) deciding for the collective that day of judgement has begun.

If Solemani was alive, Deif and Sinwar would never have done 10/7. Solemani was the reason they went from civilians with bottle rockets and AK-47’s in the early 2000’s to homemade heavy rockets and ATGMs with skilled soldier .

Dark days are ahead for Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran.

With chaos in Syria, Syria and its neighbors will suffer the most. Turkey will definitely regret it.

The only winner will be Israel

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

You can thank Putin and Xi for that. They refused to align themselves with each other let alone Iran. They still are far from strategic alliance.

Hell until 2022, Putin was still trying to be accepted by the West, all the while they moved closer to his border and planted sleeper cells in his circle (Wagner forces). Go look at how many assassination attempts Putin has had in last 2 years, he has a whole dedicated security just built for him and him only. Who loyalty he knows from the inside out being former KGB.

Russia and China are in a rude awakening. Russia is already fighting for its life. Putin is getting older, his health isn’t great. Russia was built around Putin like Soviet Union was built around Stalin. West is just waiting for the right opportunity.

China has no allies. Just Pakistan, but Pakistan Generals are compromised with China’s enemy (USA). The west is starting the anti Chinese rhetoric and it has a massive demographics problem as its country ages rapidly and no one has children.

If Iran, China, Russia don’t unite soon they will die alone fighting off US/NATO on their own rather than together. Unfortunately, Mao and Putin and their lone wolf mentality mean that the West will achieve world order.

It is hard for China to unite with Russia & Iran as you guys always look for opportunity to cozy up with the West.

Russia always fantasizes to cozy up with Trump & GOP, while Iran has sold China multiple times to appease the West.

Everything gonna end up as man to man between China and the US, and the petty allies of the US won't help them that much, and we don't need any ally which gonna end up as a liability to hinder us.

 

[PjShark]

it's actually crazy how quickly Iran's network across the region has collapsed. Just over a year ago Iran's strategic position looked rock solid. Only the Houthis remain at this point and options to seriously threaten Israel or reach the Mediterranean seem distant.

 

[battalion25]

Brah, they're starving! The greatest number of refugees/ deportees are Afghani.

Starving? their economy is better then pakistan and less refugees

 

[mythbuster]

With chaos in Syria, Syria and its neighbors will suffer the most. Turkey will definitely regret it.

The only winner will be Israel

Nah .....there will be a lasting peace in the middle East under the auspices of Turkey and Israel ....instead of fretting about it join the club .

 

[ToddE]

My post on other thread:

These Central Asian mercenaries that became "Syrian Rebels" in MSM overnight, were sent by Turkey at the behest of its Anglo-Jewish creditors who technically own half the Turkey (~50 % Debt:GDP). Once they have done their jobs, they will be bombed to shreds by US/Israel just like what US/NATO did to Baathists and Talibans after they did their job for Western masters. This is what happens to toilet papers in global affairs.

- Israel is openly using Turkey now in two ways. Turkey is supplying Billions of USD worth bulk quantities of raw material to Israel while Israel is emptying Gaza of "Sunni muslim Arabs" despite Erdogan's theatrics. Just 5-6 Billion USD is already supplied in 2024 and year is not over yet. Israel and its defense industry is practically being run on Turkish raw material supply.

- Turkey is now also making sure that Hezbollah can be choked by Israel once its land connection to Iraq+Iran is gone. Once these jobs are done, these central Asian terrorists "Sunni Syrian rebels" will be turned into dust by Israel and US because Israel will not want these terrorists near its border even if they did their job for Israel. They have zero tolerance policy for such entity after the job is done. If Assad was Israeli enemy, the same Hamas fought like a mad dog against Assad, look what Israel did to "Sunni Arab" Hamas. The same future is for whichever central asian warlord will rule Damascus.

- Once this is done, Israel will rubble Lebanon and once Shia hezollah is neutralized completely it will openly go for Sunni westbank and then project greater Israel will go full swing. Israel does no care about Shia or Sunni, they want greater Israel and clear trade routes on Arab lands, they will get it.

I say Israel played the game well, they used Turkey like a condom to eff the Arabs. Iran had no stake in this fight from the beginning so Israel made sure by not engaging with Iran that Iran stays out. Despite getting hundreds of missiles hit at its face by IRGC especially during second strike, Israel never touched Iranian nuclear or oil apparatus, thus signaling that it has no actual beef with Iran.

Iran at some point will announce nuclear weaponization capability considering how fast the enrichment is going now. Once the capability is announced, Entire Middle east and west asia will be divided into two de-fact zones between Israel and Iran, they will not fight with eachother offcourse but it will make sure Israel gets what it wants. Once the dust settles Israel will come as the lord of Arabs and by extension Turks. Arabs wanted Iranian influence gone ... they fulfilled their wishes. It will benefit Iran as well, because for a long time no akhoond will again start throwing Iranian lives and money to save arabs or "muslims" in general. Lesson well learnt by Iran but at the price of Iranian lives, decades of sanctions and billions of USD.

 

[Lulldapull]

Starving? their economy is better then pakistan and less refugees

Oh bhai there are 6 odd million in Pakistan, who are difficult to deport and another 8 million in Iran no? And similar numbers out everywhere else. Nobody wanna go to Afghanistan.

 

[battalion25]

it's actually crazy how quickly Iran's network across the region has collapsed. Just over a year ago Iran's strategic position looked rock solid. Only the Houthis remain at this point and options to seriously threaten Israel or reach the Mediterranean seem distant.

Israel won´t be here past 2036 AD in my opinion. The Americans need to understand that it is not a feasible project hence why I don´t understand why the Americans are willing to waste money on that which is bound to collapse and not feasible. It is like an illusion hence why waste time on an illusion mirage that will vanish when you look closer.

Why pour so much tax payer money into when it will explode and collapse in the short term and will have nothing to do with Houthis.

What will Israel´s legacy actully be? It has existed for like 80 years when it will die out and it would be a tiny dot in history like the first Crusaders who held Jerusalem for a short period of 88 years in the last 1500 years. Israel will become a tiny dot in history.

The Americans know this and so do the Israelis in Israel why waste money and try to build family and roots in a place that is not guaraanted a continued existence

 

[battalion25]

Oh bhai there are 6 odd million in Pakistan, who are difficult to deport and another 8 million in Iran no? And similar numbers out everywhere else. Nobody wanna go to Afghanistan.

Do you know how many Pakistanis live in UK, UAE, US and Saudi. Get the fuk outta here Pakistan has more refugees heck there are even millions of pakistanis in Africa

 

[Lulldapull]

He didn’t change. After he won the war he kept the status quo. No reforms, no power sharing. Assad also had a terrible economy, 90% of people lived in poverty. Mostly due to sanctions and partly due to corruption.

Iran gave Syria billions in credit lines and free oil to keep it functioning. But at that end of the day, Iran couldn’t prop up all of Syria. Iran is not Russia/China/US, iran didn’t build a strong economy and for war you need a strong economy.

Lastly, Assad was sold by his own men. His intelligence apparatus and his Generals sold him up the river. Hezbollah, Iraqi PMU, etc all arrived in Homs as did elements of Tiger forces and SAA/NDF loyal to him. But they were told to stand down and so Iran saw the writing on the wall, it was over. If SAA Generals won’t fight and have signed a deal with America/Turkey then there is nothing more to be done.

Of course Zarif/Argachi were more than happy to leave Syria since they always thought it was a bad idea to go in.

Hack Hook's comment the other day about him coming across some Iranian advisors in Syria who returned to Iran and him talking to them and learning about the incompetence in Syria was pretty damning.

I agree with you that the IRGC must have decided long ago to stop supporting Assad because he was incompetent.

Did you notice that nobody even died throughout the last week of this mayhem? Every man n his dog just dropped their guns and fled. The soldiers in SAA musta known from their commanders that its all over and neither Russia nor Iran will be sending any help.