Indian false flag and current Indo-Pak stand-off updates

[That_Guy]

You mean Pak may not consider this an ' act of war' till things ' settle down' ?

Suspending an treaty on the onset of summers must have implications to both the lower riparian state and the Upper one too. Especially in areas where options to divert the water internally are immense

There is a period political and diplomatic reactions before anything happens. Pakistan is in a wait and see period.

Also. Suspending the treaty right now won't have immediate effects. Water levels won't suddenly chang2 over night. It take a long time.

India would also have to consider the long term ramifications, because they also face a similar situation with China which has threatened to block off water to India in the past.

I'm of the belief, India will huff and puff, and do nothing else. Right now, there's no appetite in India right now to attack Pakistan again. Besides, There's a reason why India hasn't publicly outright blamed Pakistan this time around.

 

[NA71]

a brief war suits India...otherwise indians will be very disappointed

 

[Samlee]

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[Justin TruDont]

Can't believe Zaid Hamid was right

India ne Dariya e Sindh ka Pani band Kar Dia
Let's see how the sub continental summer treats you guys

Try and save the rain water as much as you can
You might need it for the rest of the year

 

[r3alist]

True tbh , Pakistan is mostly invaluable for China in the regard that CPEC would greatly replace the potential chokepoint of Malacca in any future conflict.

Cpec is really china trying to make Pakistan a proper state as well as china having more regional presence

Pakistan was invaluable even before cpec, it's a distant but effective option to keep India regionally locked in, with limited ambition and reach

Ending a water treaty abruptly gives china diplomatic ammo


I wonder if other nations will comment on this

 

[KingQamaR]

Nuclear or not (as you can see from the example of Russia) wars do happen , threatening a nuclear armed country doesn't matter if the opposing side is equally armed
How long can you sustain a war based on the condition and size of Pakistan's economy?

Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons for security assurances. Which did nothing in term of actual security caused it further escalation . Russia would not have taken Crimea or invaded if they had “nukes”. And this is reason why no one should give up their nuclear weapons. On Pakistan, we have built up a very healthy stockpiles of weapons have a huge man power we can tap into if it needs be for a very long conflict. Our secured equipment comes from next door china who can ramp up supplies for us. No long logistics chain or multiple sources for us that can be disrupted during war. oil & gas Islamabad will immediately tap into Irans from next door secured unrestricted supplies unlike yours . . The answer isyes Pakistan can fight a very long war. If she wishes.

 

[TallGuy]

African Intelligence agencies are reporting IAF activity has greatly increased since last hour. i worried because same guys are reporting PAF SOP in peace time have been modified since 2019. next 12-24hrs are very sensitive.

 

[LHA4210]

African Intelligence agencies are reporting IAF activity has greatly increased since last hour. i worried because same guys are reporting PAF SOP in peace time have been modified since 2019. next 12-24hrs are very sensitive.

Where are you getting this from?

 

[suriya]

With the suspension of IWT it will hurt the Lahoris.
India has thrown the ball into the Pakistani court.

 

[Sharma Ji]

But china has significant strategic investment in Pak, this comes under the existential crisis sort of category

What consequences might china face if it took action on water downstream to India?

Who would India complain to?

Exactly what Chinese strategic investment would they care about enough so as to jump in an Indo-Pak military conflict (should one break out, that is)

Why would they take action on water downstream to India in the first place ? To help Pakistan ? They don't play like the American cowboys, besides, even they know to sit this one out.. these are 3 nuclear weapon states we talking about.

90% or something of Chinese civilization is on their far east coast anyway, they are more concerned about the USFK/USFJ in the area, oh, and Taiwan.

Sorry to say, man, but it is kinda telling.. so many from your side of the fence screaming "bu-but CHINAAA !"

If S were to HTF with this one, they're sitting this one out, they're too smart to get involved.

 

[Borderlands]

India revoking the Indus Water Treaty is counterintuitive and sets a dangerous precedent for the region. Pakistan isn’t the only country downstream of shared rivers—others, like China, are closely watching. In the event of a future conflict, this move could give China a casus belli to justify restricting the flow of the Brahmaputra. It’s a zero-sum game—and in trying to assert leverage, India may have undermined its own long-term strategic position.

Is this knee jerk reaction from india going to stop the violence in Kashmir?, not by a long shot. Infact, i feel that Pakistan is going to double down, it support cross-border infiltration like in the 90s.

There is a problem with that theory. 90% of Brahmaputara's water came from territory south of Himalayas, only 10% of the water comes from Tibet. Same with Indus river. Vast majority of water originate south of Himalayan mountains, not from the north. North of the mountain (Tibet) is a desert and even the most of the glacier flow originates from the southern slope of the mountain. In the north of the mountain, annual rainfall is less than 400mm, while south of the mountain, it's 3,000mm, contributing to much of the glacier formations and water flow. Ie, even though Tibet is 40% catchment area for Brahmaputra, most of the water comes from wetter southern slope of Himalayas (India). Read more here (https://www.preventionweb.net/news/choking-brahmaputras-flow-much-ado-about-nothing )

Even if China dams entire water, it won't have any significant effect. India can always dam brahmaputra ( and screw Bangladesh) to make up for any reduction in water flow.

 

[gamaji]

The whole of India is acting like GD Bakshi lately. Such warmongers and haters.

After living their life under a thousand years of Muslim rule, Indian Hindu population ended up having a weird psychology. After getting freedom in 1947, Indians wanted to come out of their in-built complex of inferiority. They changed the syllabus of their educational institutions for that purpose.

However, the use of war mongering in mass communications (including print, electronic, and social media) was found as a readily available and most effective tool. War mongering on media was effectively promoted under the patronage of successive Indian governments. Currently, the Indian state has turned into a captive of their own monster that seems dictating policies to Indian government.

There shouldn’t be any surprise in all that for us Pakistanis. We just need to have a hammer ready for use to bring Modi to his senses when or if he acts as a slave of insane Indian media persons.

 

[Archie]

Why would or should that lead to f35 purchase?

JD vance did say that Americans want deeper defence cooperation with India and that includes India operating F35A

Basically he wants that India should buy F35A instead of more Rafales or Su57

While IAF is interested in ordering at least 40 Rafales , simply because we have maintenance training and Base level infrastructure to support a fleet of 100 Rafales and as of now we have 36 in service and another 26 likely to be ordered next week during French Defence ministers India visit

 

[SteppeWolff]

With the suspension of IWT it will hurt the Lahoris.

Lmao, I live in Lahore and Ravi has been a sewer canal turned from a majestic river, since ages now. It wont change much for Lahore dont you worry.

 

[TallGuy]

Where are you getting this from?

African Intelligence Agency HQ located in Lubumbashi, DR CONGO