Pakistan-India Conflict 2025: News Updates and Discussion

[mulj]

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they fucked them badly for their own war plans with rafale fiasco, they should be happy being not expelled.

 

[Serendipity]

While we have discussed platforms at length, in terms of military doctrine, it is worthwhile to look at decisions like restraint in light of declared strategies. I believe AVM Aurangzeb hinted at this himself.

India heavily invested in the cold start doctrine (https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/cold-start-hot-wars-indian-armys-new-limited-war-doctrine) and this dramatically challenges past inferences in the context of game theory. The one true unknown remains Pakistan's own nuclear threshold and this had to be kept hidden.

This is why India jumped directly to using Rafales and Brahmos from the outset of the escalation targeting civilian infrastructure (accused paramilitary) while Pakistan continued to climb the escalation ladder in a more conventional fashion. Their highest tech missiles were responded to with Pakistan's lowest tech weapons ( Fatah 1). There was clear signaling in this context as well as you will remember that Pakistan tested the Fatah system early in the war. Many people were puzzled as it seemed like a poor response to be testing your lower end systems in response to the enemy using advanced tech but it does make sense in this context.

The comparison is also relevant because you are comparing India's sharpest attack with Pakistan's bluntest attack. I also believe this is one of the reasons why Pakistan did not heavily attack Delhi (yet). This is also why the Indians kept saying the escalation decision is in Pakistan's hands.

Cold start has it's own major issues. They have advertised the operational and technical parameters of their most advanced systems to an enemy that clearly believes in full spectrum warfare and even now I am sure the IT teams in Pakistan, China and Turkey are working at a fevered pace to digest all the data related to India's most advanced systems devising electronic countermeasures. India , already lagging in this domain, will continue to lag as Pakistan did not bring out the big guns to further widen the EW supremacy gap. This is the new age military doctrine hinted at where synergistic tech becomes a bigger player than the quality and quantity of individual platforms.


What would have been the benefit of launching heavy attacks right off the bat? Psychological for sure, but I believe the unexpected psychological resilience of the Pakistani people through sarcasm and self deprecatory deflection really caught the Indian's off guard. There was the night of Psy Ops that their media must have envisioned as a master stroke that would lead to Pakistan's civilian population descending in to chaos and anarchy and it fell flatter than their bollywood war movies. Indeed, some of the videos shared by the military of farmers sitting next to Launch vehicles was subtle nod to this. This gave the military more time and I think the citizens themselves do not realize how much they helped.

The other major issue with cold start is that the more it is used , the more it loses it's edge. It turn in to a high low high situation , and most importantly it is horribly demoralizing for the armed forces when it does work. Imagine this: You are part of the Indian military. You are told that you have the worlds most advanced European Aircrafts, the most advanced Russian air defense system, some of the worlds fastest missile systems and you now have the cold start doctrine that will end Pakistan in 3 days ( echoes of these claims were heard in the Indian media doubling down on this) and the only thing that materializes from this is the undeniable value of the Brahmos system ( albeit, that Pakistan would chose the route of electronic jamming over classic AD was something they did not anticipate and will cause a fair bit of worry, especially since the potency of this defense will likely rise with data acquired from the skirmish). What do you think is running through the minds of their pilots and soldiers right now? That their prized assets were (probably) grounded to protect them from further humiliation, imagine what is going through the pilots on lesser machines like the Mig 29th. To shaheed our airmen they had to hit them on the ground.

One more hint from the presser is that Pakistan KNEW the airbases were going to be hit which is why AVM A+ said that we kept our assets in the air, better than letting them get hit on the ground. I think this was a key defensive decision people are not appreciating. Outcomes could have been much worst when our airbases were originally attacked if the density of on ground assets was higher.


Keeping all these things in mind, as much as restraint is being criticized, it has done one fundamental thing. In the context of game theory, Pakistan remains dominant on the escalation ladder and controls when the conflict will go nuclear. It has also come out of the fight on equal footing with showing its weakest cards while India showed it's most potent cards. The people may not see it, the world's militaries see it. The second thing is avoiding war remains a goal whether people like it or not, the fact that thousands are not dead in Pakistan right now is a product of this same restraint. If protecting civilians is the prime task, then restraint help achieve this task. Egos heal, dead bodies do not step back out of the grave- Ask the families of the brave men who lost their (worldly) lives in the conflict.

Part of the restrain narrative is fueled from urges arising from the internal political grievances. To be honest, if the Military is sincere to the country, they will address these grievances more aggressively now. India picked up on this and played the tune. Fool me once fool me twice kind of situation.

And all of these does not even begin to take in to account operational contexts of striking in a dynamic hot zone stretching across an entire border.

Anyhow, thought I would be the devils advocate on this one. There were costs associated with restraint as well no doubt. But you will never have a 100% win. Do you think God does not test your sincerity in the face of (worldly)loss? Uhud should well be a reminder. Do not get demoralized over minor pinches, this is a real world scenario. How do you know what to consider a minor pinch? Anything the enemy has to compensate for through media is a minor pinch. You have established media credibility as well. Let them show whatever pictures they like. We should mature to a point where we do not require being fed the same drivel to stand united.

Bottom line we went toe to toe with a thousand pound Gorilla and did not yield an inch, and the Gorilla is having to hide its bruises under its fur. We wear our bruises with pride- they show how much we can take and still not get ruffled or back down. Do not let the minutia distract you from the bigger picture.

 

[hussain0216]

Constant Phoenix or Cobra Ball flights would have picked up something.

Maybe those flights were Doge'd

 

[Mobius]

Posting again as it's such a gem.....LOL!

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[MS Sandhu]

In today's CCTV7 military program, major general Zhang Shunde from PLAAF said that the pilots of the five Indian fighters shot down on the first night were unlikely to parachute successfully.

He said the J10C's fighting style should be like this: Pakistan's early warning system detects the enemy aircraft and informs the J10C to meet them. When the Indian fighters came within range of the PL-15E, the J10C was instructed to fire the PL-15E in the direction of the enemy aircraft, and after the J10C fired the PL-15E, it immediately detached itself from the combat zone, and the AWACS aircraft was responsible for guiding the PL-15E towards the enemy aircraft. During this process, the radar of the J10C should be off the whole time. The Indian pilots should not find themselves in range of the J10C.

After the AWACS guides the PL-15E into the non-escape zone, the active radar of the PL-15E will be turned on, locking on to the enemy aircraft until it is destroyed. This process is very short, PL-15E terminal speed is five times the speed of sound, when the Indian pilots find themselves locked, should be only twenty seconds time PL-15E arrived. So when the Indian pilots were first exposed to the J10C's air combat mode, they would have assumed, based on past experience, that they had at least two minutes to get out of the lockdown, and they would have tried to turn on the boost to escape, rather than immediately jumping out of the plane. So it should be unlikely that the Indian pilots who were shot down on the first night would have succeeded in parachuting.

This doesn't sound right
PAF operate western origin AWACS that can't directly communicate with Pl-15
So its the radar of J10C that that has keep the lock on enemy
Moreover,Awacs have s band search radars their data is not accurate enough to get the lock.

There is some reason SAMs use FCR radars along with Acquisition radars.Awacs radar data helps J10C to direct its X band energy in particular area.

 

[Corax]

While we have discussed platforms at length, in terms of military doctrine, it is worthwhile to look at decisions like restraint in light of declared strategies. I believe AVM Aurangzeb hinted at this himself.

India heavily invested in the cold start doctrine (https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/cold-start-hot-wars-indian-armys-new-limited-war-doctrine) and this dramatically challenges past inferences in the context of game theory. The one true unknown remains Pakistan's own nuclear threshold and this had to be kept hidden.

This is why India jumped directly to using Rafales and Brahmos from the outset of the escalation targeting civilian infrastructure (accused paramilitary) while Pakistan continued to climb the escalation ladder in a more conventional fashion. Their highest tech missiles were responded to with Pakistan's lowest tech weapons ( Fatah 1). There was clear signaling in this context as well as you will remember that Pakistan tested the Fatah system early in the war. Many people were puzzled as it seemed like a poor response to be testing your lower end systems in response to the enemy using advanced tech but it does make sense in this context.

The comparison is also relevant because you are comparing India's sharpest attack with Pakistan's bluntest attack. I also believe this is one of the reasons why Pakistan did not heavily attack Delhi (yet). This is also why the Indians kept saying the escalation decision is in Pakistan's hands.

Cold start has it's own major issues. They have advertised the operational and technical parameters of their most advanced systems to an enemy that clearly believes in full spectrum warfare and even now I am sure the IT teams in Pakistan, China and Turkey are working at a fevered pace to digest all the data related to India's most advanced systems devising electronic countermeasures. India , already lagging in this domain, will continue to lag as Pakistan did not bring out the big guns to further widen the EW supremacy gap. This is the new age military doctrine hinted at where synergistic tech becomes a bigger player than the quality and quantity of individual platforms.


What would have been the benefit of launching heavy attacks right off the bat? Psychological for sure, but I believe the unexpected psychological resilience of the Pakistani people through sarcasm and self deprecatory deflection really caught the Indian's off guard. There was the night of Psy Ops that their media must have envisioned as a master stroke that would lead to Pakistan's civilian population descending in to chaos and anarchy and it fell flatter than their bollywood war movies. Indeed, some of the videos shared by the military of farmers sitting next to Launch vehicles was subtle nod to this. This gave the military more time and I think the citizens themselves do not realize how much they helped.

The other major issue with cold start is that the more it is used , the more it loses it's edge. It turn in to a high low high situation , and most importantly it is horribly demoralizing for the armed forces when it does work. Imagine this: You are part of the Indian military. You are told that you have the worlds most advanced European Aircrafts, the most advanced Russian air defense system, some of the worlds fastest missile systems and you now have the cold start doctrine that will end Pakistan in 3 days ( echoes of these claims were heard in the Indian media doubling down on this) and the only thing that materializes from this is the undeniable value of the Brahmos system ( albeit, that Pakistan would chose the route of electronic jamming over classic AD was something they did not anticipate and will cause a fair bit of worry, especially since the potency of this defense will likely rise with data acquired from the skirmish). What do you think is running through the minds of their pilots and soldiers right now? That their prized assets were (probably) grounded to protect them from further humiliation, imagine what is going through the pilots on lesser machines like the Mig 29th. To shaheed our airmen they had to hit them on the ground.

One more hint from the presser is that Pakistan KNEW the airbases were going to be hit which is why AVM A+ said that we kept our assets in the air, better than letting them get hit on the ground. I think this was a key defensive decision people are not appreciating. Outcomes could have been much worst when our airbases were originally attacked if the density of on ground assets was higher.


Keeping all these things in mind, as much as restraint is being criticized, it has done one fundamental thing. In the context of game theory, Pakistan remains dominant on the escalation ladder and controls when the conflict will go nuclear. It has also come out of the fight on equal footing with showing its weakest cards while India showed it's most potent cards. The people may not see it, the world's militaries see it. The second thing is avoiding war remains a goal whether people like it or not, the fact that thousands are not dead in Pakistan right now is a product of this same restraint. If protecting civilians is the prime task, then restraint help achieve this task. Egos heal, dead bodies do not step back out of the grave- Ask the families of the brave men who lost their (worldly) lives in the conflict.

Part of the restrain narrative is fueled from urges arising from the internal political grievances. To be honest, if the Military is sincere to the country, they will address these grievances more aggressively now. India picked up on this and played the tune. Fool me once fool me twice kind of situation.

And all of these does not even begin to take in to account operational contexts of striking in a dynamic hot zone stretching across an entire border.

Anyhow, thought I would be the devils advocate on this one. There were costs associated with restraint as well no doubt. But you will never have a 100% win. Do you think God does not test your sincerity in the face of (worldly)loss? Uhud should well be a reminder. Do not get demoralized over minor pinches, this is a real world scenario. How do you know what to consider a minor pinch? Anything the enemy has to compensate for through media is a minor pinch. You have established media credibility as well. Let them show whatever pictures they like. We should mature to a point where we do not require being fed the same drivel to stand united.

Bottom line we went toe to toe with a thousand pound Gorilla and did not yield an inch, and the Gorilla is having to hide its bruises under its fur. We wear our bruises with pride- they show how much we can take and still not get ruffled or back down. Do not let the minutia distract you from the bigger picture.

Really good post! Some excellent ideas and conclusions, thanks for sharing. I agree that the PAF and military seems to have prioritised keeping control of the escalation ladder. I think the problem in India is that the military establishment knows all this, but because they are being ordered by a deranged political ideology, their hands are tied. Ironically, it's Pakistan military's closer overreaching relationship with it's political leadership that ay have actually benefitted it in this case, allowing it the tactical and strategic scope of freedom to outmanoeuvre the Indians.

 

[Cash gk]

These youtuber journalists roll with the popular public opinion just for the sake of $, first they tried to incite hate against Pak army, and when they saw our people were praising army, they started praising army to, just untill last week these journalist were saying army and Modi planned this all. Imran riaz, Moeed Pirzada, Adil Raja, Wajahat S. Khan, and much similar journalists should be banned.

The people you’re mentioning they stood by the weak and oppressed when no one else had the courage to. I’ve always respected those who speak up for the downtrodden in difficult times. My fight has always been against the powerful and oppressive, never against the weak.

So please, don’t disrespect those individuals people like Dr. Moeed and Imran Khan — who stood up when the state, with all its might, was inflicting pain even on innocent women and children in their homes. That was a time when Pakistanis were almost driven to become enemies of their own armed forces.


Now, Allah has given us another chance to stand for the truth.

And you said some people speak just for views — but let me ask you, why do they get those views? Because they are saying what the public wants to hear. They are giving voice to the emotions of the people. That’s why people support them and watch them.

I personally don’t like many influencers or speakers — I just don’t watch them. I mute or block them. Why should I waste my time? But that doesn’t mean I falsely accuse them.

People watch and support those who reflect their pain, their concerns, and their truths.

So please, stop supporting those who were responsible for hurting Pakistanis. It is our duty to speak against oppression — that is what true faith demands.

 

[hasn2009]

The PAF mentioned jamming Indians SATCOM, so there is something to this. PAF may have revealed too much capability this time around. I'm sure the Indians will be rectifying their mistakes, Pakistan will need to maintain it's edge.

Aurangzeb proved to be an idiot

If you slap another person, other person also finds out they have been slapped. So when and if Indian SATCOM were jammed, they surely knew it was us.

 

[Vi-va]

 

[lightning f57]

Why would a LOOSER ask for more humiliation?

Did you watch Modi? He was broken.

What however Pakistan must now do is try to understand what was behind their madness?

Motives? Objectives? Associates? Benefactors?

Pakistan must now scrutinize the motivations behind India's actions, probing for underlying objectives, potential accomplices, and hidden agendas. However, it appears Pakistan is hesitant to pose these critical questions, both publicly and internally. On the surface, India's moves seem irrational, but given their strategic acumen, it's likely there's more to their plan. In the complex game of geopolitics, calculated boldness often yields results, and resilience is key to navigating these challenges.

Thank you saar

Water and maybe wanting to gain more support from the population.

 

[Salza]

There is a thought that seems to have alluded us..., and that was the absence of the Viper in this entire episode.

We all know that as per the US's End-User Agreement, we cannot use the F-16's against India in an offensive role. That Agreement does not cover defensive role.

So, since the IAF did not cross the LoC, it explains why there is no mention of Vipers.

The Viper has been the frontline Fighter for decades and not going into its History and capability..., the serious question on the US's mind must be: Does Pakistan really need the US anymore in terms of Military Aid ?

The J-10C & PL-15 (still less in numbers) out performed The Mighty Rafale.

Pakistan hasn't bought any Military Hardware from the US since ... Musharaf era.

A week back..., the US would have thought that Pakistan would always want to buys more Vipers - even used ones.

Looks like those days may be a thing of the past.

@Oscar

If we can get our block 52 upgraded to V standard can get some AIM-120D than it will be an awesome deal. AIM 120D range is equivalent to Meteor or slightly more.

 

[hasn2009]

The people you’re mentioning they stood by the weak and oppressed when no one else had the courage to. I’ve always respected those who speak up for the downtrodden in difficult times. My fight has always been against the powerful and oppressive, never against the weak.

So please, don’t disrespect those individuals people like Dr. Moeed and Imran Khan — who stood up when the state, with all its might, was inflicting pain even on innocent women and children in their homes. That was a time when Pakistanis were almost driven to become enemies of their own armed forces.


Now, Allah has given us another chance to stand for the truth.

And you said some people speak just for views — but let me ask you, why do they get those views? Because they are saying what the public wants to hear. They are giving voice to the emotions of the people. That’s why people support them and watch them.

I personally don’t like many influencers or speakers — I just don’t watch them. I mute or block them. Why should I waste my time? But that doesn’t mean I falsely accuse them.

People watch and support those who reflect their pain, their concerns, and their truths.

So please, stop supporting those who were responsible for hurting Pakistanis. It is our duty to speak against oppression — that is what true faith demands.

I respect your view and totally agree with you, and this is the high time army should announce separation from political process and free IK and other political prisoners.

What I was saying is some journalists have borrowed the popular narrative just for the views. A while ago I saw a video of one of the journalist saying, his other friend journalist called him a fool for not going with the flow and pleasing PTI, his journalist friend said he was anti-PTI too, but for views he had to portray as pro-PTI

So my point is, people like Imran Riaz continuously quote his military sources with things like, "army is involved in all this and they will not respond to India's aggression", are proven liars.

 

[Mobius]

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[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

While we have discussed platforms at length, in terms of military doctrine, it is worthwhile to look at decisions like restraint in light of declared strategies. I believe AVM Aurangzeb hinted at this himself.

India heavily invested in the cold start doctrine (https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/cold-start-hot-wars-indian-armys-new-limited-war-doctrine) and this dramatically challenges past inferences in the context of game theory. The one true unknown remains Pakistan's own nuclear threshold and this had to be kept hidden.

This is why India jumped directly to using Rafales and Brahmos from the outset of the escalation targeting civilian infrastructure (accused paramilitary) while Pakistan continued to climb the escalation ladder in a more conventional fashion. Their highest tech missiles were responded to with Pakistan's lowest tech weapons ( Fatah 1). There was clear signaling in this context as well as you will remember that Pakistan tested the Fatah system early in the war. Many people were puzzled as it seemed like a poor response to be testing your lower end systems in response to the enemy using advanced tech but it does make sense in this context.

The comparison is also relevant because you are comparing India's sharpest attack with Pakistan's bluntest attack. I also believe this is one of the reasons why Pakistan did not heavily attack Delhi (yet). This is also why the Indians kept saying the escalation decision is in Pakistan's hands.

Cold start has it's own major issues. They have advertised the operational and technical parameters of their most advanced systems to an enemy that clearly believes in full spectrum warfare and even now I am sure the IT teams in Pakistan, China and Turkey are working at a fevered pace to digest all the data related to India's most advanced systems devising electronic countermeasures. India , already lagging in this domain, will continue to lag as Pakistan did not bring out the big guns to further widen the EW supremacy gap. This is the new age military doctrine hinted at where synergistic tech becomes a bigger player than the quality and quantity of individual platforms.


What would have been the benefit of launching heavy attacks right off the bat? Psychological for sure, but I believe the unexpected psychological resilience of the Pakistani people through sarcasm and self deprecatory deflection really caught the Indian's off guard. There was the night of Psy Ops that their media must have envisioned as a master stroke that would lead to Pakistan's civilian population descending in to chaos and anarchy and it fell flatter than their bollywood war movies. Indeed, some of the videos shared by the military of farmers sitting next to Launch vehicles was subtle nod to this. This gave the military more time and I think the citizens themselves do not realize how much they helped.

The other major issue with cold start is that the more it is used , the more it loses it's edge. It turn in to a high low high situation , and most importantly it is horribly demoralizing for the armed forces when it does work. Imagine this: You are part of the Indian military. You are told that you have the worlds most advanced European Aircrafts, the most advanced Russian air defense system, some of the worlds fastest missile systems and you now have the cold start doctrine that will end Pakistan in 3 days ( echoes of these claims were heard in the Indian media doubling down on this) and the only thing that materializes from this is the undeniable value of the Brahmos system ( albeit, that Pakistan would chose the route of electronic jamming over classic AD was something they did not anticipate and will cause a fair bit of worry, especially since the potency of this defense will likely rise with data acquired from the skirmish). What do you think is running through the minds of their pilots and soldiers right now? That their prized assets were (probably) grounded to protect them from further humiliation, imagine what is going through the pilots on lesser machines like the Mig 29th. To shaheed our airmen they had to hit them on the ground.

One more hint from the presser is that Pakistan KNEW the airbases were going to be hit which is why AVM A+ said that we kept our assets in the air, better than letting them get hit on the ground. I think this was a key defensive decision people are not appreciating. Outcomes could have been much worst when our airbases were originally attacked if the density of on ground assets was higher.


Keeping all these things in mind, as much as restraint is being criticized, it has done one fundamental thing. In the context of game theory, Pakistan remains dominant on the escalation ladder and controls when the conflict will go nuclear. It has also come out of the fight on equal footing with showing its weakest cards while India showed it's most potent cards. The people may not see it, the world's militaries see it. The second thing is avoiding war remains a goal whether people like it or not, the fact that thousands are not dead in Pakistan right now is a product of this same restraint. If protecting civilians is the prime task, then restraint help achieve this task. Egos heal, dead bodies do not step back out of the grave- Ask the families of the brave men who lost their (worldly) lives in the conflict.

Part of the restrain narrative is fueled from urges arising from the internal political grievances. To be honest, if the Military is sincere to the country, they will address these grievances more aggressively now. India picked up on this and played the tune. Fool me once fool me twice kind of situation.

And all of these does not even begin to take in to account operational contexts of striking in a dynamic hot zone stretching across an entire border.

Anyhow, thought I would be the devils advocate on this one. There were costs associated with restraint as well no doubt. But you will never have a 100% win. Do you think God does not test your sincerity in the face of (worldly)loss? Uhud should well be a reminder. Do not get demoralized over minor pinches, this is a real world scenario. How do you know what to consider a minor pinch? Anything the enemy has to compensate for through media is a minor pinch. You have established media credibility as well. Let them show whatever pictures they like. We should mature to a point where we do not require being fed the same drivel to stand united.

Bottom line we went toe to toe with a thousand pound Gorilla and did not yield an inch, and the Gorilla is having to hide its bruises under its fur. We wear our bruises with pride- they show how much we can take and still not get ruffled or back down. Do not let the minutia distract you from the bigger picture.

you are right, synthetically. Let me give you an analogy, Bumnyaon mursos, give its meaning, a very clear picture, in your head. If you cannot, think over it 3 or 4 times!

 

[safriz]

India lost French Rafale and British Scalp was shot down by Pakistan.
Both these weapon systems were well advertised and mainstay of business for the two countries weapons market.