PakAl
Elite Member
My conclusions are quite different and a little harsh on Iran i am afraid. The erasure of the command and control structure was always going to be temporary to provide space for the initial opening round, to sow confusion. Israel correctly determined that the command structure is "personality cult driven/led and not institutional with identified chains of command with battlefield replacements built its structure and clear SOPs". That window of opportunity was to hit the targets that they wanted to. They hit all of the overground nuclear sites that they wanted to , and inflicted sufficient damage to slow down Iran's programme for years. They could never knock it out entirely, they knew that. But, with Iran's economic problems, the prospects of having to spend 10's of billions to resurrect that infrastructure to get back to where they were before the attack is going to pose a problem for them, esp if the snapback sanctions are applied, causing more economic pain. Even if Iran conducts a test with a device, they will not be able to generate enough fissile material for a meaningful nuclear capability for many years.
The Israeli public are not much concerned about what they are seeing from Iran, they have withstood longer and more sustained barrages from Lebanon, Palestine forces and it did not negatively affect Netanyahu politically or the people. This is a new normal for them.
Netanyahu may have political issues that may cause the end of his career, but it wont be because he is charged with Genocide/war crimes, the public does not care about that. Or, the result of Iran's attacks, they are geared to withstand that with all the bunkers they have.
I disagree with the notion that Iran has recovered its reputation. They are and will be rightly embarrassed for decades to come that Israel got the jump on them like that. People can see Iran's military is quite ineffective and it cannot impose a cost of any value given the lack of precision in the systems that Iran uses. Once, people used to fear Iran as the big bad wolf you should not go near or touch. Not so much now. Look at how freely the IDF can operate over Iran. Counters like Saudia, UAE can operate at that level of freedom over Iran now, as they have the same level of military hardware. Yes, those countries are closer and maybe affected by other systems, but the fear has been reduced by a few notches with this exchange, not gone up.
Who will take Iran's military that seriously when it can lose its entire senior command staff like that, when it was clear to all that an attack was coming? How ineffective is the chain of command in Iran, than secondary leaders could not automatically take over the operations without having to be "personally appointed for their political considerations ?". Iran's miliary structure, organisation and operational model has not come out well out of this at all. The nature of the government structure in Iran means, it can never be fixed either. A few missiles with poor CEP targeting that are missing their targets cannot change the fundamentals of that Iran lost the opening round and by all measure, it looks like they may not have the will or technical capability, or capacity to conduct a sustained campaign to "stay in the ring with Israel" for very long it seems.
Netanyahu may well fall out one day, but it will be because of low level petty politics in their government.
Don't get me wrong, i would love for Iran to be able to take Israel by the shoulder, bend her over a barrel and give a good account of himself, but i am afraid, what i saw and still see is impotence ...
Israel is ruling Iranians skies, they will destroy everything, military bases, missile bases, nuclear facilities, tanks, planes, airports, ports, navial assets, will likely target economic infrastructure aswell. What Netanyahu wants is for the Iranians to rise against the Ayatollahs and for a military coup to remove the regime, bring back a secular iranian leadership which will deal with the USA zionists. If Iranians do not rise up, Israel will target economic infrastructure, turn back Iran clock to 1980s, this will destroy iranian economy and sooner or later the people of Iran will remove their government.
People can celebrate 100 missile attacks on Israel but it's not causing enough damage in order for Israel to back off, the zionist claimed they will change the map of the middleeast and they're doing it now. Hizbollah, Hamas, Al Assad defeated, Iran is now being defeated, they will clear middleeast from any anti Israeli elements. Israel will rise as a stronger power, the unchallengable power in the middleeast.







