Takes so far,
Pure Thought out game theory at play by IRGCAF. IRGC missile barrages are getting more and more lethal with higher hit/intercept ratios now and hence less number of missiles are being fired now. They fired salvos of force multiplier old Emad and Ghadr MaRVs initially to deplete the Israeli AD in numbers, still getting their missiles through. As depletion started in Israel, chaos started in population the hit rate increased. IRGCAF switched from quantity (old single staged MaRVs) to quality (Hypersonic/Skip Glide MaRVs) in a gradual well thought out plan. Who in their right mind would have thought that one day Israeli ports, refineries will be burning, their cities will become rubble. But it happened and is still happening. Credit where its due. Like I said before IRGCAF is now easily the worlds most war experienced or battle hardened missile force. Their experience with underground bases, ultra-efficient missile production, Hypersonics, MaRVs, MRBMS accurate mass strikes etc its all just unmatched in modern times. IRGC's CoC re-established within hours despite Generals assassination hints towards IRGC being much more systematic force that does not revolve around personality cult. Fools were predicting internal collapse after assasinations. The force is as professional as it gets it seems. They launched accurate barrage of missiles against worlds most defended airspace within 10 hours of command assassination and have since just shown thorough professionalism.
Iranian decoy game is still going strong because most of the drone Seeker caught footages of "strikes" on launchers or AD assets show ZERO after explosion that you would expect from a fuel filled warhead carrying missile, instead just non-burning fragments flying here and there. Iranian decoy deployment is totally different from conventional trickery of using rubber, wood, paints like we have seen in Ukraine-Russia theatre. They are using old truck wrecks and hollow shells of missiles to waste Israeli missiles. No way they that can be differentiated from actual launchers. My own assumption is that they have done same with some of the radars. How is it a well executed plan? Iranian military or state controlled media is tight lipped on the subject instead of claiming credit or saying anything.
Israeli mission goal seem to be changing with every passing day without achieving anything. They started with with "stopping nuclear program" to "regime change" to "assassinating leadership" to "ruling Iranian skies" to finally just targeting population. Israeli campaign has so far resulted in 0% targets being achieved. Not a single nuclear site (Actual facilities) is out of commission. I am surprised no one is mentioning what became of that half a ton HEU that can result in 30-40 Tactical fission devices in matter of 3-4 days, where is it ? is it captured? Iranian population is fully rallying around IRI once again due to Israeli stupidity of targeting population when military objectives were not achieved. This begs the question did Israel think this through or they got fooled by US deep state ? Iran started from defensive posture to now controlling the escalation ladder because Israel foolishly lost control of it with tall propaganda claims. IRGC is quite successful prolonging the conflict using these nightly reciprocating barrages to the point that Israel being 80x smaller resource-less country can cripple as a functioning state if this keeps on going for days and days.
Israel is hiding most of the casualties thanks to strict censorship policy because the level of destruction we are seeing in Israel hints towards much more casualties. Also the fact that they are constantly forcing their own population for censorship of Iranian strikes. You dont do that if you have nothing to hide. Ayatollahs on the other hand thrive on civilian losses, more ppl die in Iran more ppl rally around them, Saddam did this mistake and found out hard way because the revolution that would have self imploded in few years got emboldened by his stupid policy of targeting Iranian citizens. Khamenei would have gone in some months due to age if nothing else, Armed forces Chief Bagheri was giving messages to Iranian public from Cyrus the great's Tomb, Iran was changing but now Israeli foolish policy has made sure that IRI goes nowhere else.
ZERO evidence exists so far that Israeli jets are flying in Iranian skies for fun as Nahtanyahu is trying to sell in media. If this was actually happening there would have been mass videos of attack jets deploying munitions over cities like we saw in Syria, Ukraine wars etc but none of this is coming out of Iran. Thick majority of attacks on Iran are either air-launches from Iraqi Air space or from drones launched from within Iran by local traitors. More time passes means these inner terrorist strikes will decrease due to them being busted on daily basis. Also begs the question how financially viable are these long range sorties to Iraq from where they are deploying Aeroballistics, Cruise or SOWs ? I dont have the exact numbers but I am 100%sure they will be multifold more expensive than IRGCAF launching its own MaRVs.
Chinese constant support to Iran hints out at the fact that Chinese are in no mood to get their OBOR initiative disrupted. Iranian hydrocarbon assets, its gigantic geography, ports, mines are too much valuable to just let it be embroiled in an imposed war. A regime change in Iran will mean all of this can become part of the "Dollar market" pretty much like PGCC, Iran will have a large economy in excess of 3-4 trillions but Chinese will loose access to all of what is in their reach right now. US staying out of conflict and Trump equalising Iran and Israel without taking sides hints towards American deep state kinda trying to appease the Iran-China-Russian nexus otherwise we would have seen US bombing Iran to rubble, thats not happening. Trump's US is all about keeping US in the worlds entire resource markets without holding no grudge on ideological grounds, thats what a capitalist big corp installed President does. AIPAC grip on admin, congress, lobbies is strong but American deep state is no fool. Israel may do a false flag or use Epstein files blackmail to coerce Trump into confrontation with Iran but so far it seems to be working in opposite direction. Remains to be seen how far trump can resist the Jewish pressure on him personally and his admin.
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