Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Hayabusa said:
Woke up this morning to see that Israel took some heavy hits last night.

This is exactly what I've been telling the Iranians - your iman must remain strong! If Iran were to falter, it would have been within the first 72 hours.

But now, we've moved past that, and Iran is hitting back hard. These strikes will serve as a lesson for Israel. FAFO.

Insha'Allah, this war will lead to a ceasefire and in my view, that alone would be a victory for Iran, so long as its fissile material remains secure.
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This is what I have been telling to the Iranians! Keep your iman up and believe! Insha'Allah Iran will be victorious. Dont give up! Your establishment still have enough firepower and fight in them !
 
GWXP said:
The plan for this war was prepared long time ago.

The worst case scenario:

The West hopes to change regime in Iran, demilitarize and dismantle it.

Their plan:

1) Israel starts the war and decapitates Iranian leadership by killing top generals and key officials.

2) Israel absorbs most of Iranian ballistic missiles and after Iranian missile arsenal is exhausted US+UK+Germany+France+Italy enter the war.

3) Western coalition destroys Iranian civilian infrastructure, industry, government buildings with a huge bombing campaign that paralyzes Iran.

4) Western coaltion will then degrade Iranian military with a huge bombing campaign.

5) After Iranian leadership decapitated, infrastructure destroyed, governance dysfunctional, ballistic missile arsenal exhausted and military degraded, US will try to dismantle Iran. There can be a ground invasion from Azerbaijan and Iraqi-Kurdistan supported by US airpower.

Azerbaijan can invade from the north with 75.000 troops with support of American airpower and try to occupy Iranian Azerbaijan. To counter them in condition of full American air superiority Iran must deploy 150.000 troops to Iranian Azerbaijan.

Kurdish Peshmerga can invade Iranian Kurdistan with 160.000 troops with support of American airpower. To counter them Iran will tell Iraqi Shia militias to attack Iraqi Kurdistan and Iran needs 200.000 troops to contain Peshmerga assaults in condition of full American air superiority.

Also, yesterday Trump had a dinner with Pakistani Chief of the Army Staff Asir Munir - Americans may try to persuade Pakistan to occupy Baluchistan province of Iran when Iranian military is degraded by US airstrikes. But China may say to Pakistan not to do it.

If Azerbaijan successfully invades Northern Iran with support of US airpower, Iran will no longer be a Caucasian power and this will turn Turkey into a hegemon of the Caucasus and then this can threaten Russia's territorial integrity because Turks will then be able to influence Russian Muslim Caucasus - Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia. So Russia and Armenia might respond and Russia might conduct airstrikes against Azerbaijan and deter Turkey with nuclear weapons.

Iranian response:

1) Iran will totally destroy Persian Gulf oil infrastructure and mine the Strait of Hormuz indefenitely. This will impose multitrillion dollar cost on the West and economic recovery will take 5-7 years.

2) Iran will activate Hezbollah to its fullest and Israel and Lebanon will be destroyed in a new Israel-Hezbollah war.

3) Houthis will strike all ships in the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb.

4) Iran will mobilize 2mln troops and hold defense in Iranian Azerbaijan and Kurdistan region - 150.000 Iranian troops will contain 75.000 Azeri troops supported by US airpower, 200.000 Iranian troops will contain 100.000 Peshmerga troops supported by US airpower, 600.000 Iranian troops will contain 300.000 Turkey's troops in case if Turkey will decide to join the war. In total Iran needs 1mln troops to defend itself.

5) IR-6 centrifuges are already evacuated from Fordow as it takes 3 days to dismantle and evacuate 1600 IR-6 centrifuges. Also Iran currently has 408kg of HEU enriched to 60% which is also evacuated from Natanz and Fordow. Iran will install those IR-6 centrifuges in multiple underground secret sites and enrich uranium to 90% and eventually test a bomb.

Iran should start moving troops and mobilizing immediately.
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In this scenario, Iranians will suffer so much
 
r3alist said:
In this scenario, Iranians will suffer so much
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Not so much suffering as compared to if the world suffered a Supervolcano Eruption or a Asteroid Impact. Sometimes shit happens beyond our control, and the best option is to fight or overcome the challenge with all our might. That is all.
 

Only 16% Of Americans, 19% Of Trump Voters Want US To Join Israel's War On Iran​

As President Trump reportedly considers issuing an unconstitutional order to commit the US military to Israel's war on Iran, a new poll finds very little public support for an American attack on Iran -- even among those who voted for Trump in 2024.

According to an Economist/YouGov poll taken between June 13 and 16, only 16% of Americans "think the US military should get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran. In an even more significant finding, only 19% of people who voted for Trump in 2024 support American military involvement. (23% of all self-identified Republicans support going to war.) Similarly, 56% of all Americans say the United States should engage in negotiations with Iran. That avenue has even greater support among Trump supporters -- with 63% advocating negotiations.

1750312501198.jpeg

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Speaking at an April event hosted by Bucknell University's Open Discourse Coalition, Sen. Rand Paul elaborated on why America's founders vested warmaking power in the Congress:

The most important thing is -- and it doesn't sound that exciting -- it's the process. We have to have a vote. You get a vote through your representatives. It's the dispersion of power. It's trying to keep power from being centralized in one authority, and warmaking is probably the most important of that. And Madison, when he was writing about this in the "Federalist Papers," said "the executive branch is the branch most prone to war. Therefore, with studied care, we have vested that power in the legislature."

Only 16% Of Americans, 19% Of Trump Voters Want US To Join Israel's War On Iran | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
HeratKabul said:
To be fair, Israelis achieved what even US could not have.

Iran has powerful military. Wiping out it's entire Military leadership in 15 minutes on Day one is simply shocking feat.
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They were old farting dinosaur-pensionados from the ‘80’s. Relics from the old war against Iraq. Tired, slow, grumpy old men.

They are now replaced by agressive, dynamic and a bit younger types from the ‘90’s. And they are beating the shit out of Israel. God bless them.
 
StrategicBear said:
Not so much suffering as compared to if the world suffered a Supervolcano Eruption or a Asteroid Impact. Sometimes shit happens beyond our control, and the best option is to fight or overcome the challenge with all our might. That is all.
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An asteroid impact, depending on impact would be short and sharp

Back to reality, the USA has not really involved itself decisively, I think Iran would take at least a ceasefire on terms it can spin as a win
 
GWXP said:
The plan for this war was prepared long time ago.

The worst case scenario:

The West hopes to change regime in Iran, demilitarize and dismantle it.

Their plan:

1) Israel starts the war and decapitates Iranian leadership by killing top generals and key officials.

2) Israel absorbs most of Iranian ballistic missiles and after Iranian missile arsenal is exhausted US+UK+Germany+France+Italy enter the war.

4) Western coalition destroys Iranian civilian infrastructure, industry, government buildings with a huge bombing campaign that paralyzes Iran.

5) Western coaltion will then degrade Iranian military with a huge bombing campaign.

5) After Iranian leadership decapitated, infrastructure destroyed, governance dysfunctional, ballistic missile arsenal exhausted and military degraded, US will try to dismantle Iran. There can be a ground invasion from Azerbaijan and Iraqi-Kurdistan supported by US airpower.

Azerbaijan can invade from the north with 75.000 troops with support of American airpower and try to occupy Iranian Azerbaijan. To counter them in condition of full American air superiority Iran must deploy 150.000 troops to Iranian Azerbaijan.

Kurdish Peshmerga can invade Iranian Kurdistan with 160.000 troops with support of American airpower. To counter them Iran will tell Iraqi Shia militias to attack Iraqi Kurdistan and Iran needs 200.000 troops to contain Peshmerga assaults in condition of full American air superiority.

Also, yesterday Trump had a dinner with Pakistani Chief of the Army Staff Asir Munir - Americans may try to persuade Pakistan to occupy Baluchistan province of Iran when Iranian military is degraded by US airstrikes. But China may say to Pakistan not to do it.

If Azerbaijan successfully invades Northern Iran with support of US airpower, Iran will no longer be a Caucasian power and this will turn Turkey into a hegemon of the Caucasus and then this can threaten Russia's territorial integrity because Turks will then be able to influence Russian Muslim Caucasus - Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia. So Russia and Armenia might respond and Russia might conduct airstrikes against Azerbaijan and deter Turkey with nuclear weapons.

Iranian response:

1) Iran will totally destroy Persian Gulf oil infrastructure and mine the Strait of Hormuz indefenitely. This will impose multitrillion dollar cost on the West and economic recovery will take 5-7 years.

2) Iran will activate Hezbollah to its fullest and Israel and Lebanon will be destroyed in a new Israel-Hezbollah war.

3) Houthis will strike all ships in the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb.

4) Iran will mobilize 2mln troops and hold defense in Iranian Azerbaijan and Kurdistan region - 150.000 Iranian troops will contain 75.000 Azeri troops supported by US airpower, 200.000 Iranian troops will contain 100.000 Peshmerga troops supported by US airpower, 600.000 Iranian troops will contain 300.000 Turkey's troops in case if Turkey will decide to join the war. In total Iran needs 1mln troops to defend itself.

5) IR-6 centrifuges are already evacuated from Fordow as it takes 3 days to dismantle and evacuate 1600 IR-6 centrifuges. Also Iran currently has 408kg of HEU enriched to 60% which is also evacuated from Natanz and Fordow. Iran will install those IR-6 centrifuges in multiple underground secret sites and enrich uranium to 90% and eventually test a bomb.

Iran should start moving troops and mobilizing immediately.
Click to expand...

This is rather cinematic then anything else and very filmsy.

The Azerbaijan part was wrong I don´t think they would invade but if they were to invade it would certainly not be with 75k but rather upwards to 300.000 men but I don´t see them attacking at all there is no political incentive.

Also the unprovoked GCC attack will mean the GCC will likely invade from the Ocean with upwards 1 million men. This will involve Egypt and other multiple players and you included Pakistan this will be game over before it starts.

Besides Russia nuking to deter Azerbaijan sounds very unrealistic because you said to prevent turkish influence in the caucaus there is already that influence and by Eastern Azeribaijan falling it doesn´t make any sense. Turkey has access to caucaus via Azeribaijan it is kinda of redundant.

In this scenario you made Iran out to be rambo where they are attacked from everywhere which is unrealistic of itself because they won´t be attacked by any of the players you listed here. Except maybe the Peshmerga and that is maybe not certain but if all the actors you named was to conduct an incursion it will be over in 1 years time all of it will fall but that is not the scenario nor realistic politically in the current scenario. As Iran has good relations with all it´s neighbours currently..

Here is how I see it happening if it was to unfold.

The US, UK, France, Syria and Peshmerga could invade Iran. Where Sharaa becomes their most staunch and important ally they will solely attack from Iraq which means Iraq itself will get invaded in the process. American forces will penetrate from Syria into Iraq together with HTS and FSA all joined in the Syrian armed forces this is the most realistic scenario. These are some of the most battle hardened forces in the region now. Side by side with American forces and if they get US air-cover and air support they would be a formidible foe.
 
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arjunk said:
I just realised, following Iranian attacks, Israeli AD has been depleted significantly... If Arab nations were not cucks the Islamic world could theoretically go for the kill and launch a ground invasion of Israel... At least the West Bank and Gaza could be liberated....
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Unfortunately the likely hood of Arab nations helping Israel in this war is higher than going against it. Really hope they dont let anyone use their airbases against Iran
 
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