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China “Outproducing” U.S. In Fighter Jets; Can “Deny” Air Superiority In First Island Chain: Top Commander
By Sumit Ahlawat-April 23, 2025
After building the world’s largest maritime fighting force, China has gained a 1.2 to 1 production rate advantage over the US in fighter jets. Together with modern fifth-generation combat aircraft and advanced ‘long-range’ air-to-air missiles, Beijing can prevent the US from achieving air superiority within the key first island chain, a top US Commander has warned.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told the US Senate Armed Services Committee that China is rapidly advancing its air combat capabilities, and Beijing is in a position to “deny” the US air superiority in the first island chain, the strategic archipelagos in East Asia comprising Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.
“China’s unprecedented aggression and military modernization poses a serious threat to the homeland, our allies, and our partners (in the Indo-Pacific),” Admiral Paparo warned the Senate Committee earlier this month, adding that in 2024, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increased its military pressure on Taiwan by “300 percent.”
Furthermore, Admiral Paparo emphasized that, after building the world’s largest naval force, China is also rapidly developing its air combat capabilities.
“China is outproducing the United States in air, missile, maritime, and space capability and accelerating these,” he said.
China’s Rising Air Combat Capabilities
Discussing China’s growing air combat capabilities, Admiral Paparo informed the Senate Armed Services Committee that China has 2,100 fighters and 200 H-6 bombers.Further, Admiral Paparo warned that China is “producing fighters at a rate of 1.2 to 1 over the United States.”
Also, China is investing heavily in modern combat aircraft. Beijing already has over 200 fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighter jets. Last year, China also revealed its second fifth-generation stealth aircraft, J-35. China is also working on two sixth-generation fighters, the J-36 and J-50. Both next-generation aircraft are currently undergoing flight testing.
Furthermore, the admiral warned that China’s “advanced long-range air-to-air missiles also present a tremendous threat.”
Underlining the criticality of maintaining air superiority in a potential conflict with China, Admiral Paparo said: “If you do not hold the high ground along the first island chain, you are vastly limited in your ability to operate. I think everybody knows the importance of the high ground. So ceding air superiority is not an option if we intend to maintain capability against our adversaries and the ability to support our allies.”
Swiftly establishing air superiority over your adversary is key to winning modern conflicts. One key reason the Ukraine-Russia war has dragged on for more than three years is that Moscow failed to establish air superiority in the early days of the battle.
The presence of state-of-the-art air defense capabilities on both sides meant that the air force could play only a limited role in this battle. This necessitated a far more central role for the infantry and artillery battalions, resulting in first-world-war-style trench warfare and high casualties on both sides.
In contrast, the US has enjoyed air superiority in all its recent wars. Be it in Afghanistan or Iraq, or the recent hostilities with the Houthis in Yemen, the US was quickly able to establish unchallenged air superiority, giving it a critical edge in the battle.
However, China’s rapid progress in air combat capabilities means that the US is not confident of establishing air superiority over Beijing in a future conflict in the Indo-Pacific.
When asked if China can deny U.S. air superiority in the first island chain, Admiral Paparo replied: “I give them high marks in their ability to do that.”
Analysts have warned that, with both sides employing modern fifth-generation aircraft equipped with advanced sensors, long-range precision-guided missiles, and cutting-edge air defense systems, it will be impossible for either side to establish permanent air superiority.
Instead, the objective would be to establish air supremacy for brief periods.
Admiral Paparo also acknowledged this limitation.
“Air supremacy is the complete mastery of the air. Neither side will enjoy that. But it will be my job to contest air superiority, to protect those forces that are on the first island chain, such as the 3rd Marine Expeditionary Force, and also to provide windows of air superiority in order to achieve our effects,” he added.
Advantage To China In A Future War With The US
Some researchers have warned that in a future conflict between China and the US, Beijing could devastate US air power in the Indo-Pacific region far more easily than the other way around.A new report by the Hudson Institute, “Concrete Sky: Air Base Hardening in the Western Pacific,” argues that China’s extensive fortification of its air bases in recent years has given it a significant advantage over US military airfields, particularly in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.
China has engaged in what the report describes as a “nationwide, systematic campaign” to expand and harden its airfields. The goal is to withstand large-scale attacks, with a particular focus on safeguarding aircraft during intense air combat.
The analysis highlighted that the number of hardened aircraft shelters—designed to protect planes from enemy strikes—has more than doubled, from 370 to over 800.
Meanwhile, the number of non-hardened shelters has surged from 1,100 to more than 2,300, bringing the total number of shelters across the country to over 3,100. These shelters will be crucial in protecting China’s vast fleet of combat aircraft during a conflict.
Similarly, in a dire warning last year, the US lawmakers, citing recent war games analysis, cautioned that the United States faces the harrowing prospect of losing a staggering 90% of its aircraft on the ground, as opposed to in aerial engagements, in a potential conflict with China.
The lawmakers cautioned that China possesses sufficient weaponry to overpower the air and missile defenses safeguarding US bases. They warned that potential strikes on these bases could have dire consequences, including the immobilization of critical air assets, disruption of logistical chains, and a substantial weakening of the nation’s capacity to respond in a conflict situation.
The lawmakers pointed out, “Many US bases in the Indo-Pacific remain unprotected by any hardened structures, and aircraft are often kept close to each other to facilitate maintenance and other supporting tasks. The result is that critical US air assets are highly vulnerable to Chinese strikes.”
They further added, “Unsurprisingly, in recent war games simulating a conflict with China over Taiwan, 90 percent of US aircraft losses occurred on the ground, rather than from air combat.”
These repeated warnings by researchers, think tanks, lawmakers, and military officials highlight China’s growing air combat capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, which could have dire consequences for the US and its regional allies in the first island chain.
Underlining the urgency of addressing the China challenge, Admiral Paparo recommended “investing in key readiness and capability.”
“Deterrence remains our highest duty,” Admiral Paparo said, adding that deterrence, however, must be backed up by the “real capability to prevail in combat.”
