Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

Keep in mind, that report dates back to 2023. At the time, the concern centered on an estimated 130kg of 60% enriched uranium. That figure has since surged to around 400kg.

While I’m not a nuclear expert, it would be naive to assume they haven’t already enriched some of it to 85% by now cinsiderinf as you said, easier to enrich from 60% to 85% then 0 to 60%.

But to stay focused on my main point: despite claims of a significant strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure targeting both facilities and expertise their own intelligence assessments concede that the setback amounts to only a few months, not decades.

Ultimately, we may never truly know the full extent of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, especially with the possibility of undisclosed black sites scattered across its vast territory. One thing seems certain Fordow will not be the last underground facility they willl build.
I don't tend to speculate when I don't know, I will say I just don't know.

Did Iran have 85% HEU? Maybe, I don't know, and no one is know for sure, the issue here is, going back to your previous question, now assuming that the cake is intact and store somewhere safe, and assuming you have stored all the test log, the important question now is, whether the centrifuge stopped or damaged. Because it's not plug and play, you can't put it back up and put the uranium cake back in and it goes back from wherever you take it out before. So if that 6 months or so delay is on the fuel side (ie, the centrifuge is not damage and you just taken the fuel out), that's easy to retify, you just need to refuel the centrifuge, but if the centrifuge was damaged and need 6 months to repair? That's going take a long time to recalibrate the centrifuge after making it operational again, sure, it will not be decades like it was before, but it is going to be year, if not years for Iran to pick back up the process. And again, that is assuming the fuel cake is intact

It didn't matter if they had a replacement facilities, because you are going to need to fine tune the centrifuge to spin in a particular way to keep the U238 separating from U235, that's going to take a long time to do because you are talking about adjustment in micron unit
 
Honestly, after witnessing this conflict, I’ve slightly revised my opinion of Zelensky, whom I used to dislike.
Despite losing vast territories in just a few days, facing an onslaught on his capital, and enduring intense airstrikes, he chose to fight relentlessly, mobilized his forces, and launched a counterattack without retreating a single step.
If Zelensky had been as cowardly as the Ayatollahs, he would have surrendered immediately, and Ukraine would have been occupied by Russia almost without a fight. And he would have justified it as a rational choice.

In the end, more than equipment or national strength, it's the leader’s will to fight that matters most. When the leader is gripped by fear and on the verge of surrendering, no soldier wants to die in a futile battle.
 
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either referring to new Natanz site (depth of 150m vs 80m for Fordow) or undisclosed Qazvin site (depth of 200m+)

US used half their inventory of GBU-57 to only partially damage Fordow, it seems even the centrifuges there survived and the nuclear material was evacuated in advance

don't think US has enough GBU-57s for the other sites...

They need to enrich the uranium without running their big mouth.
 
The book's title is 'The Bomb In My Garden'. A memoir by Mahdi Obeidi, Iraq's chief nuclear scientist.

The 'bomb' that Obeidi referenced was a pair of centrifuges to separate U-235 from U-238. Saddam Hussein ordered Obeidi to bury the centrifuges in Obeidi's home garden to hide them from US soldiers looking for anything relating to Iraq's nuclear weapons program.

Centrifuges must be designed exactly for a specific purpose. U-235 and U-238 are atomic weights. That is how close the isotopes are to each other. U-235 is the isotope that can go 'boom'. So, if a country is trying to get centrifuges to separate uranium isotopes, it will be assumed the purpose is to create a nuclear warhead.
All of this may be true if it were based on reliable facts. But the modern world is based on lies. The war in Ukraine is proof of that. Or the downing of MH17.
 
I don't tend to speculate when I don't know, I will say I just don't know.

Did Iran have 85% HEU? Maybe, I don't know, and no one is know for sure, the issue here is, going back to your previous question, now assuming that the cake is intact and store somewhere safe, and assuming you have stored all the test log, the important question now is, whether the centrifuge stopped or damaged. Because it's not plug and play, you can't put it back up and put the uranium cake back in and it goes back from wherever you take it out before. So if that 6 months or so delay is on the fuel side (ie, the centrifuge is not damage and you just taken the fuel out), that's easy to retify, you just need to refuel the centrifuge, but if the centrifuge was damaged and need 6 months to repair? That's going take a long time to recalibrate the centrifuge after making it operational again, sure, it will not be decades like it was before, but it is going to be year, if not years for Iran to pick back up the process. And again, that is assuming the fuel cake is intact

It didn't matter if they had a replacement facilities, because you are going to need to fine tune the centrifuge to spin in a particular way to keep the U238 separating from U235, that's going to take a long time to do because you are talking about adjustment in micron unit
Well I’m guessing if Iran has another enrichment plant as they say they do operational won’t take as long to do what they need to if they decide to go ahead with a bomb right asking a real question your trying to be center for the most part and I actually appreciate that
 
The idea of fully pivoting East was tried during Ahmadinejad's presidency. It didn't work well. Both China and Russia allowed 4 rounds of UN Security Council resolutions to be passed on Iran. So, it's not that easy.
Iran needs sanctions relief to maximize trade with as many nations as possible. They need secure pipelines to customers on the Eurasian continent, and just off of it to raise revenues and invest into their economy, to rebuild public services. They need a conventional military, that is able to defend their country, because neither Russia nor china will physically intervene. Now the issue for them is how will they be able to get sanctions relief and still hold onto the potential to breakout should the threat of a full blown regime change war flare up again? What assurance will they believe to give up their stockpile again?

Iran is in the following predicament:
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All of this may be true if it were based on reliable facts. But the modern world is based on lies. The war in Ukraine is proof of that. Or the downing of MH17.
So are you saying that Mahdi Obeidi is a fake person? That it is easy to create/buy nuclear refinement centrifuges?
 
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Honestly, after witnessing this conflict, I’ve slightly revised my opinion of Zelensky, whom I used to dislike.
Despite losing vast territories in just a few days, facing an onslaught on his capital, and enduring intense airstrikes, he chose to fight relentlessly, mobilized his forces, and launched a counterattack without retreating a single step.
If Zelensky had been as cowardly as the Ayatollahs, he would have surrendered immediately, and Ukraine would have been occupied by Russia almost without a fight. And he would have justified it as a rational choice.

In the end, more than equipment or national strength, it's the leader’s will to fight that matters most. When the leader is gripped by fear and on the verge of surrendering, no soldier wants to die in a futile battle.
Zelensky has US and NATO backing. Iran is all alone. If Iran was backed by the West and Israel all alone then it would be comparable.
 
So are you saying that Mahdi Obeidi is a fake person? That it is easy to create/buy nuclear refinement centrifuges?
I didn't say that.
The IAEA confirms that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, so who is lying?
 
How unstable do you think the ground is in Frodo? Or do you believe that despite all the seismic shock from the MOPs it is fine to re-enter?
Something I was pondering for awhile today. Iran is known to have substantial earthquake activity. In addition to depth, whose to say the engineers did not design the structures to sit on some type of shock-absorbing foundation.
 

'We will kill your wife and children’​

  1. Politics
June 24, 2025 - 23:31

Leaked audio shows Israel tried to get Iranian generals to quit, but failed​



TEHRAN – In the chaotic hours following the beginning of the Israeli regime’s illegal aggression against Iran on June 13—a brazen assault that martyred revered commanders such as Major General Hossein Salami and Major General Mohammad Bagheri—a sinister parallel operation unfolded.

According to the Washington Post, Israeli intelligence operatives, masquerading as omnipotent assassins, placed at least 20 calls to senior Iranian military figures.

Their demand was grotesque: Record a surrender video denouncing the Islamic Republic within 12 hours, or face annihilation alongside your families.

“We will kill you, your family, your children, everyone, with the dirt,” one Mossad agent hissed to an IRGC general, adding, “We’re closer to you than your own neck vein.”

Yet, not a single general complied. Not one fled. Not one betrayed their nation. This collective act of courage, amid Israel’s bombardment of civilian infrastructure, exposes the hollow core of the Zionist regime’s psychological warfare.

The failure of this campaign is not merely operational; it is a strategic and moral collapse that demands global attention.

A window into Israel’s desperation

The leaked audio, published by The Washington Post, reveals Israel’s playbook: exploit moments of vulnerability to fracture Iran’s government.

Calls were placed just two hours into the regime's heinous act of aggression, coinciding with the targeted killings of Iran’s top commanders.

Israeli intelligence agents—presumably from Mossad or Aman and fluent in Persian—threatened IRGC generals to record 'disassociation' videos sent via Telegram.

“Do you want to be the next one on the list?” one operative taunted. The intent was transparent: manufacture public defections to demoralize Iran’s forces and ignite internal chaos.

Yet, Zero videos surfaced. Zero generals defected.

Instead, IRGC ranks tightened their formation, and the Iranian Armed Forces mobilized with renewed determination.

This mirrors Iran’s broader resilience: Despite Israel’s repeated war crimes—assassinations of senior officials and nuclear scientists, strikes on civilian infrastructure, police headquarters and Evin Prison, cyber-attacks, bombardment of cultural sites, calls for Tehran’s evacuation and uprisings—the Iranian people have only grown more united.

A surge of renewed nationalism and patriotism now sweeps the nation, as Iranians from all walks of life rally behind their flag and stand resolute in defense of their homeland.

Why Israel’s psychological war crashed against Iran’s fortitude

I. Loyalty beyond coercion

The IRGC’s structure, honed over decades, prioritizes values-based and patriotic loyalty over individual ambition.

Commanders are embedded within communities, their loyalty grounded in shared Revolutionary values and a deep commitment to preserving the Iranian government.

II. Honor and martyrdom

The Israeli regime’s demand for humiliation videos betrayed a fundamental misreading of Iranian honor.

For Iranian commanders, surrender equates to betraying martyrs like Major Generals Soleimani, Bagheri, Hajizadeh, and Salami.

The loss of fellow commanders doesn’t breed despair but a solemn, honorable guilt—“Why was it not my time?”

Far from breaking their will, each martyrdom steels their resolve. They channel grief into defiance, determined that no sacrifice will be forgotten or wasted.

This ethos permeates Iran’s response to the Israeli regime all throughout the 12 days of non-stop Israeli aggression.

III. The leak an admission of defeat

Israel’s leak of the operation to the Washington Post was an admission of failure. Covert espionage successes remain in the shadows; only faltering moves crave publicity. By releasing the intercepted calls so soon after the raid, Mossad tried to uphold an illusion of omnipotence.

Instead, it inadvertently underscored Iran’s unbroken chain of command and the fierce resolve of its new generation of commanders.

Therefore, Israel’s psychological warfare gambit was not just foiled—it was transformed into a testament to Iran’s spiritual and institutional resilience.

With their defiance, those Iranian generals proved Iran cannot be bullied, bought, or broken.

The world should heed this lesson.
 

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