Iran - Israel/US War: Israel-US declare war on Iran, Iran responds

[tsunset]

I respect you disagreement, but I follow up with the question if the US was afraid of a failed state why was the regime change one of the core reasons for the attack? It doesn't add up.....
Again, I gave a clear time line with Trump's own words.....he had said, Iran would be obliterated....and he doubled down when asked about a ceasefire, he said "We are not looking for a Ceasefire" He then tweeted that Iran would be obliterated........as I said in the other post, after the bombing, as Iran was readying it's retaliation, his entire tone changed....all of a sudden a ceasefire was ok, he even goes on to say "God Bless Iran"..... You don't find this bizarre?

Donald Trump not seeking ceasefire but wants ‘complete give-up’ by Iran

US president says Iran must stop uranium enrichment entirely for conflict to end, as Iran says it is open to talks

www.theguardian.com

If you refer to Iran, US goal was never regime change, but total regime collapse and automated looting and sacking of Iran with pipelines of free gas and oil

 

[ShapurII]

Wow, your missing the signs right in front of you.......if the US didn't want to deploy troops or if it was afraid of a big failed state.....why did it go along with the regime change plan?

They did? When did that happen? Last time I checked, unlike Israel that claimed it wanted regime change, the US insisted that they didn't want regime change and asked for a ceasefire right after bombing our nuclear facilities. Trump's tweet is still there, where he says, just hours after bombing our nuclear facilities, that it's time to end the war.

This is absolutely a big risk of that plan.....a vacuum left by the IRI could've led to total chaos........I don't think they gave a shit what would happen to Iran if it falls, did they give a hoot about Syria? Or Libya? NO!

Syria was handed over to Turkey and the Golani-Brigade. What are you talking about?

And Libya is not even in the Middle East, it's in North Africa. Not even relevant. Libya's neighbors are Chad, Algeria, Niger and Egypt. None of them are of importance to the global economy. Egypt is capable of defending itself and has been quite docile after the Camp David agreement. Not even remotely the same situation as in the Middle East where things are always heated and close to the boiling point with militias and anti-US/Israel sentiments.

This ceasefire was about the oil shock.......one can argue the second reason is that Israel AD were depleted and they didn't want to sustain major damage that they couldn't hide from the world.

There was no oil shock. I wouldn't call a two-dollar temporary increase as a shock. It's not even an oil fart, let alone an oil shock. So, that's a false argument.

2 days later after the intelligence report.....we had a ceasefire.

Iran reportedly moves to close Strait of Hormuz after US attacks

The Iranian Parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil choke point, after the United States bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, according to Iranian state m...

www.yahoo.com

These intelligence reports, even if true, are worthless. Particularly for somebody like Trump. He literally said that the US intelligence community was wrong that Iran didn't pursue nuclear weapons. He said it on news, not once, but several times.

 

[ToddE]

My Irani Brother, By Not having an airforce grants Entity Air Superiorty by default. what you are talking about Air space denial. since SAM systems were compromised and damaged internally. so opening corridors for air strikes were easy after fifth coloum offensive. (1st-6th days) afterwards corridors become narrow but never closed.

Israel or any foe of Iran has no need to enter Iranian airspace when they can freely launch ALBMs, ALCMs, Long ranged SOWs from safe distance over Iraq just like they did after TP2. Why burn extra fuel, get expensive refuelers airborne, get fight plane in danger zone when you can get the same job done from distance? IAF has more types of ALBMs and ALCMs than anyone in the world literally. Their F-15, F-16 launch Lofted High apogee Hypersonic Separating MaRVed ALBMs which are not expensive. They have ZERO reason to enter any hostile contested airspace with such large arsenal of air launched weaponry.

Also, where is the evidence like I asked two "veteran fighter pilots" here? IRI is a weak political system with no understanding of war time propaganda and narrative building while Israel has a dedicated ministry for it. Israel propagated this narrative of jets flying 24/7 over Iran to demotivate IRGCAF which was just not getting deterred (kept striking Israeli cities till last minute), the evidence is 2 Jettisoned cases and one Spice PGM strike in 12 days but everyone bought it because IRI being a Islamo-marxist dysfunctional system just could not refute it. The same way IRI could not give their own figure of how many Israelis died in IRGCAF strikes. They just have no idea how to fight propaganda by counter propaganda.

you must understand the situation - if you ask leave the fighter jets since you dispute that - how many drones MALE/HALE were shot down?

Yes entity had air superiorty

 

[ToddE]

I must say, the US national Shahi shits are the most toxic kind of Iranians probably ever to have been born. Hating IRI the "political system" is one thing but they openly ask for destruction of Iran the country because of their hatred for IRI.

 

[Persian Gulf]

He though the jews managed to kill pezeshkian and khamenei in the north Tehran attack. He tweeted unconditional surrender and left some meeting only to fly back to washington and find out they failed. Then he changed his tune. Trump is about as competent as your average IR official, he's just as retarded and cowardly.
He went along with the plan because he's a pedophile and the jews have videos of him, they told him "we're doing this" and he was forced to acceed to their plan.

spot on

 

[kastor ville]

They did? When did that happen? Last time I checked, unlike Israel that claimed it wanted regime change, the US insisted that they didn't want regime change and asked for a ceasefire right after bombing our nuclear facilities. Trump's tweet is still there, where he says, just hours after bombing our nuclear facilities, that it's time to end the war.


Syria was handed over to Turkey and the Golani-Brigade. What are you talking about?

And Libya is not even in the Middle East, it's in North Africa. Not even relevant. Libya's neighbors are Chad, Algeria, Niger and Egypt. None of them are of importance to the global economy. Egypt is capable of defending itself and has been quite docile after the Camp David agreement. Not even remotely the same situation as in the Middle East where things are always heated and close to the boiling point with militias and anti-US/Israel sentiments.


There was no oil shock. I wouldn't call a two-dollar temporary increase as a shock. It's not even an oil fart, let alone an oil shock. So, that's a false argument.


These intelligence reports, even if true, are worthless. Particularly for somebody like Trump. He literally said that the US intelligence community was wrong that Iran didn't pursue nuclear weapons. He said it on news, not once, but several times.

I give up man, if you think Israel even spits without US's permission...then nothing I say can convince you. The entire ops was fronted by the CIA director plant that's an AIPAC appointment...but yeah, you can continue thinking Israel's regime change goal was not shared or approved by Washington. As far as the tweets, it's amazing we can both read the same thing and notice the time line and come away with 2 different takes. So, yeah US was afraid Iran would fail so bad that they wanted to keep the IRI intact, but they just wanted to kill all the heads of military for unrelated cause.

 

[kastor ville]

If you refer to Iran, US goal was never regime change, but total regime collapse and automated looting and sacking of Iran with pipelines of free gas and oil

You're preaching to the wrong guy...I believe that they wanted to turn us into a failed state. I mean, do you think the disturbances in Balochistan and Azeri separatist tweets were a coincidence.....it was their core plan.

 

[kastor ville]

He though the jews managed to kill pezeshkian and khamenei in the north Tehran attack. He tweeted unconditional surrender and left some meeting only to fly back to washington and find out they failed. Then he changed his tune. Trump is about as competent as your average IR official, he's just as retarded and cowardly.
He went along with the plan because he's a pedophile and the jews have videos of him, they told him "we're doing this" and he was forced to acceed to their plan.

1000% they had zero plans for a provisional government.....if they did, they would've landed troops and material for the takeover. No such plans we're in existence...the whole Pahlavi thing was a trial balloon...to see if there were any interest by the Iranians. That dude couldn't manage a road side cafe much less a country.. he's the very definition of a useful idiot.

 

[muhammed45]

I give up man, if you think Israel even spits without US's permission...then nothing I say can convince you. The entire ops was fronted by the CIA director plant that's an AIPAC appointment...but yeah, you can continue thinking Israel's regime change goal was not shared or approved by Washington. As far as the tweets, it's amazing we can both read the same thing and notice the time line and come away with 2 different takes. So, yeah US was afraid Iran would fail so bad that they wanted to keep the IRI intact, but they just wanted to kill all the heads of military for unrelated cause.

Our bro @ShapurII is biased over his own standpoint.

Killing Iranian generals from intelligence point of view was a great success for Zionist front but Israel was strategically defeated eventually. The reason why USA stepped in to attack Iran's nuclear facility was Israel's inability to carry out the mission. Israel was badly defeated strategically. But tactically they achieved a few goals, i do not deny it.

Even USA's attack on Fordow was nothing more than a show. They dropped a bomb onto ventilation section of the facility which can be repaired in a blink of an eye.

Israel begged for a ceasefire. Again, i do not deny that Iran also needed that ceasefire.

People tend to forget even USAF failed to accurately target Yemen's radar sites by gliding and free fall bombs. They eventually had to use expensive air dropped anti-radar missiles for targeting Yemeni radar installations which was not that successful.

It is easy to nag all day and night but truth is, we are learning lessons after lessons in every operation.

 

[FUB]

Meet your enemy . Do you really think you can negotiate with these creatures?
IR officials need to wake up.

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[FUB]

It has been almost two months since the cease fire .Below is my opinion what a realistic scenario looks like today and in the foreseeable future

based on open source :
Pre-war missile production
estimates were 50 per month

Post war-
Surge factor: 1.5×–2× increase is realistic if supply chains hold.
They could possibly double production to 100–120/month for several months if plants go 24/7 and stockpiles of materials are there .

Pre-war
Hypersonics: These are R&D-heavy and slow. At best maybe 6-10 month if everything is streamlined.

Post-war
12–15/month for maybe 3–4 months.
Longer term probably at 10-12 a month, unless support from (China, North Korea, Russia) fills in the gaps

Drones-
According to CSIS in a 90-day window, Iran could launch 600 to 5,000 Shahed drones.
Pre-war
500-1000
Post war production
1600-2000 per month

Air Defense -
We know it was poor but the next round will be much different.

To deal with drones and miniature cruise missiles:
Build dense SAM rings around Tehran, Natanz/Isfahan/ IRGC bases with Khordad‑15 / Raad / Talash

If ( I am doubtful) upgraded long‑range assets exist like more Bavar‑373 and replacement AD from China we could see shoot‑and‑scoot and multi‑engagement capacity and hopefully see downed manned air craft .

Improve early warning
Patch passive sensors with Ghadir/OTH radars . Deploy covert forces inside Iraq and in Syria.

Use more decoys and improve deception :
Move radars and SAMs more frequently to avoid detection by US sats , radiate less, use decoy emitters/launchers, and fall back on underground/covered sites

Offensive pressure:
If they are preparing, they should be able to launch 500-600 drones per day which will slow down the attacks and give Iranspace to launch 50-100 missiles per day, which is realistic, considering that they average 42 per day during the 12 day war.

The next round will be significantly more violent . If there’s any doubt from the axis of evil, Iran should use this opportunity to put the pedal to the floor with relentless build up of both offensive and defensive capabilities.

Israel Alarmed Over Suspected Chinese Support For Iranian Missile Program<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Liquidator]

Meet your enemy . Do you really think you can negotiate with these creatures?
IR officials need to wake up.

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The reason these Jews are killing journalists and now also going to take over is because they have been raping Gazans and killing them. There is no other way to hide their crimes.

It's truly Hell on earth enabelled by the West on false pretext (40 beheaded babies et al...)

 

[Hassan Al-Somal]

Our bro @ShapurII is biased over his own standpoint.

Killing Iranian generals from intelligence point of view was a great success for Zionist front but Israel was strategically defeated eventually. The reason why USA stepped in to attack Iran's nuclear facility was Israel's inability to carry out the mission. Israel was badly defeated strategically. But tactically they achieved a few goals, i do not deny it.

Even USA's attack on Fordow was nothing more than a show. They dropped a bomb onto ventilation section of the facility which can be repaired in a blink of an eye.

Israel begged for a ceasefire. Again, i do not deny that Iran also needed that ceasefire.

People tend to forget even USAF failed to accurately target Yemen's radar sites by gliding and free fall bombs. They eventually had to use expensive air dropped anti-radar missiles for targeting Yemeni radar installations which was not that successful.

It is easy to nag all day and night but truth is, we are learning lessons after lessons in every operation.

The Israelis also blew up their ten to twenty years efforts of setting up their networks inside Iran. The 12-day conflict and the ceasefire that followed allowed Iran to seriously search and locate these networks. It is doubtful Israelis would be able to rebuild these networks anytime soon, and this alone is a strategic defeat for the Israelis.

Tactically, it is not clear any net gain Israelis achieved over Iran. The destruction that their nuclear, economic, and military facilities suffered far outweigh any damage they caused to Iran. The destruction that the Weismann nuclear and military research center suffered is estimated to be closer to 1 billion USD.

The damage to their oil refineries and power stations are also in the billions of USD.

Their military air bases and air assets have also taken a huge hit, and the Israelis are tight-lipped on releasing any info about the casualties and the damage they suffered in these air bases. There are reports that the Israelis lost 30 pilots in one of the bunkers the Iranian missiles hit in those airbases.

There are many more military and nuclear facilities that were hit, which Israelis are tightlipped on any info coming out of these facilities. Civilians can face 10 years prison time if they even release a single photo of these sites.

Another thing that this 12-day conflict exposed was the fragility to rely on technologies such as Android, Whatsup, GPS, etc that can easily be deployed against any nation or group that opposes the Western - Israelis' hegemony.

At the end, it was the aggressor state (Israel) that requested a ceasefire, the Iranian state is standing, the Mossad networks inside Iran have been getting crushed, and Iran is filling the gaps in its air defense and intelligence network. It was a clear cut victory for Iran.

 

[kastor ville]

Our bro @ShapurII is biased over his own standpoint.

Killing Iranian generals from intelligence point of view was a great success for Zionist front but Israel was strategically defeated eventually. The reason why USA stepped in to attack Iran's nuclear facility was Israel's inability to carry out the mission. Israel was badly defeated strategically. But tactically they achieved a few goals, i do not deny it.

Even USA's attack on Fordow was nothing more than a show. They dropped a bomb onto ventilation section of the facility which can be repaired in a blink of an eye.

Israel begged for a ceasefire. Again, i do not deny that Iran also needed that ceasefire.

People tend to forget even USAF failed to accurately target Yemen's radar sites by gliding and free fall bombs. They eventually had to use expensive air dropped anti-radar missiles for targeting Yemeni radar installations which was not that successful.

It is easy to nag all day and night but truth is, we are learning lessons after lessons in every operation.

Actually I agree with 95% of his assessments. He's like the rest of us in here, we want a plan, we want a way out of this quagmire, are we going nuclear, we are not going nuclear, we want to talk to the US, but we don't want to talk directly....it's a lot of hodge podge....with no clear strategy. We've been extremely lucky so far.....Israel, a country that runs DC wants us dead, for the past 25 yrs. We got the Neo-Cons in DC after us for the same length of time. Thank goodness Iraq was such a disaster, they didn't bother with us after that....but, now they're back at our doorstep, and we need to take their words and actions seriously.

 

[muhammed45]

Actually I agree with 95% of his assessments. He's like the rest of us in here, we want a plan, we want a way out of this quagmire, are we going nuclear, we are not going nuclear, we want to talk to the US, but we don't want to talk directly....it's a lot of hodge podge....with no clear strategy. We've been extremely lucky so far.....Israel, a country that runs DC wants us dead, for the past 25 yrs. We got the Neo-Cons in DC after us for the same length of time. Thank goodness Iraq was such a disaster, they didn't bother with us after that....but, now they're back at our doorstep, and we need to take their words and actions seriously.

I value your concerns. Thanks for your input.


But hey, you know better than us, Trump is a shithead and his presidency is somehow somekind of trial and error. USA can never return to its peak during Reagan presidency. Trump is the wannabe Reagan and we have already passed that level.