The U.S. Ledger Behind the Middle East Turmoil
——A Deep Dive into Current Geopolitical Realities and Hegemonic Logic
America’s "Dual-Track Control": Reality and Contradictions
The current Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape is structured around a"military proxy + regime protector"binary: Israel serves as America’s "dagger" for military intervention, while Gulf monarchies rely on U.S. security guarantees to sustain their regimes. This framework fundamentally seeks toprevent the emergence of a unified regional power through controlled chaos, thereby solidifying America’s global hegemony.
1. Israel: America’s "Agent of Violence"
• Deepening Military Dependency: Over the past decade, the U.S. has provided Israel with38billioninmilitaryaid(withanadditional38 billion in military aid (with an additional 38billioninmilitaryaid(withanadditional17 billion in wartime emergency funding in 2023), enabling it to become the only Middle Eastern state with nuclear weapons, advanced fighter jets (F-35s), and missile defense systems. Every Israeli military operation (e.g., bombings in Gaza and Lebanon) is, in essence,America outsourcing violence to eliminate regional rivals at zero cost.
• Veto Shield: The U.S. has used its Security Council veto power six times to block international sanctions against Israel, rendering it "immune" to international law. This protection not only fuels Israeli military atrocities but also exacerbates humanitarian crises, fueling anti-American sentiment.
2. Gulf Monarchies: America’s "Political Puppets"
• Security Addiction: Despite $600 billion in arms purchases, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others remain dependent on U.S.-controlled air defense systems (e.g., Patriot missiles). The 2023 Houthi attacks on Saudi oil fields exposed their defensive fragility—without U.S. protection, Gulf regimes could collapse rapidly.
• Economic Lifelines Tied to Washington: Though the petrodollar agreement has lapsed, the U.S. dollar still dominates Gulf foreign reserves (over 70%). U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia via SWIFT have coerced Gulf states into maintaining "dollar loyalty" to avoid financial isolation.
Why Must the U.S. Suppress Middle Eastern Powers?
The rise of a unified regional power would directly undermine three U.S. core interests:
1. Military Hegemony Collapse:
• If Iran, Turkey, or an Arab alliance emerged, the U.S.’s 37,000 troops and 24 bases in the region would lose strategic value and face expulsion.
• A regional power could establish independent defense networks (e.g., a joint Arab navy), eroding America’s "offshore balancing" capability.
2. Energy Hegemony Crumbling:
• A regional power could dominate oil pricing (e.g., settling trades in euros or yuan), breaking the "petrodollar" cycle and triggering a U.S. debt crisis.
• Saudi Arabia’s 2025 yuan-based oil trading trials already alarm Washington; wider adoption would cause a dollar system earthquake.
3. Geopolitical Order Reconstruction:
• A strong state might push for a just resolution to the Palestine-Israel conflict, stripping Israel of its "regional policeman" role and delegitimizing U.S. intervention.
• Middle Eastern integration (e.g., rail and power grid connectivity) would reduce reliance on the West, accelerating "de-Westernization."
The Fragility of Middle Eastern Regimes: America’s "Control Lever"
Gulf states appear wealthy but arepolitically brittle:
• Tribal-Royal Complexes: Power in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others is concentrated in royal families, lacking modern governance capacity. They rely on U.S. security endorsements to survive.
• Sectarian Divisions: Sunni-Shia rivalries (e.g., Saudi Arabia vs. Iran) are exploited by the U.S. for "divide-and-rule" strategies, yet also fuel long-term instability.
• Youth Unemployment Crisis: Over 60% of the Middle East’s population is under 30, with high unemployment (12% in Saudi Arabia) and wealth inequality (Gini coefficients above 0.4 in Gulf states) driving social unrest. This forces monarchies to cling tighter to U.S. support.
Think Tank Warnings: Hegemony in Terminal Decline
A 2024 report by the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) states:
"America’s ‘low-cost control’ model in the Middle East is facing dual failure: Israel’s excesses trigger global isolation, while Gulf allies’ drift accelerates dollar system erosion. The rise of regional powers remains nascent, but the U.S. lacks the capacity to halt multipolar trends."
Conclusion(Synthesized from China’s Institute of Contemporary International Relations):
"America’s Middle East strategy is fundamentally about ‘fomenting division to sustain control.’ Yet Israel’s brutality and Gulf regimes’ fragility are driving the region toward fiercer conflicts. When regional states realize that ‘relying on the U.S. equals slow suicide,’ American hegemony will collapse entirely."
To maintain its dollar hegemony, the United Statesmust protect Israel and uphold the existing Middle Eastern security framework. If the U.S. were to lose its dollar dominance, Israel would lose its strategic value.Unless Israel learns to pursue peace, the nation’s long-term sustainability remains untenable.
