6th Generation Fighter's Ranked

In the logic of business cooperation in China, there is a taboo!

Any project should absolutely prohibit multiple partners with similar capabilities from joining with a balanced shareholding structure.

Both FCAS and GCAP violated this taboo! Therefore, the FCAS project came to an end. Let's see how long GCAP can last...
Japan joined GCAP that will likely give it staying power and Germany will also likely have to join or buy more F-35's.
 
There is more to suggest that the GCAP programme will progress to completion than not right now.

The issue right now is the bureaucrats of the UK MOD which is delaying the prgramme in light of the 30000th "UK Defense Review" and all projects and procurements get delayed when they do that, it is not just the GCAP that is being affected. There has been no political movement against the GCAP programme or it's costs, it is quite the opposite given what is going on in Ukraine. It is the bureaucrats being bureaucrats unfortunately.

Both Canada, and Australia have also emerged as countries that have indicated an interest to purchase the GCAP platform and to also contribute technologically to the platform(given that the workshare has been allocated, this will be an interesting discussion as both Italy and Japan have said they do not want this to be reopened to ensure the project remains on time and on track without new horse trading).

Time will tell, but reading the political situation in the UK, I do think GCAP will progress to completion. There is too much of the UK aerospace industry riding on it for it to not.

The Tempest Combat Air Flying Demonstrator is scheduled to take its first test flight by 2027 with manufacturing in progress right now, so that will establish facts on the ground that will be difficult for the government to stall on, especially given how important it is to Japan, a key ally and investor in the UK.

Some pictures of some component manufacturing as early as 2025 :

 

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