How Putin could lose Crimea 10 years after annexation | Gen. Ben Hodges & Maxim Tucker

[Yommie]

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[Yommie]

Personally, I doubt it. China has repeatedly said Russia is China's own backyard and is off limits. If the US goes to war with Russia for Ukraine, then China send troops into Russia to fight the US. And it will no longer be a regional war. It'll be a world war. And it won't benefit anyone.

@Viet What do you think? Can Ukraine take back Crimea from Russia?

 

[Viet]

Personally, I doubt it. China has repeatedly said Russia is China's own backyard and is off limits. If the US goes to war with Russia for Ukraine, then China send troops into Russia to fight the US. And it will no longer be a regional war. It'll be a world war. And it won't benefit anyone.

@Viet What do you think? Can Ukraine take back Crimea from Russia?

What Ge. Hodges means is a complete siege of Crimea. Cutting the island off from lands, seas, and air. starving the russians to death. Then Ukraine army pours in and finishes the job.

Now that’s a very unrealistic scenario. The russians are on the move, while Ukraine army is retreating. But thing can change.
The most favorable scenario for Ukraine is if the US, EU begin to deliver everything Ukraine needs to win the war. The sanctions crush Russia economy. Russian population go hungry to bed. China, India reduce buying cheap oil and gas from Russia. Russia army loses more men and materials than Putin can resupply. That all combined can help Ukraine to retake Crimea.

However there is a risk. The russians will resort to nuclear if they believe they lose the war, they lose Crimea.

 

[Yommie]

What Ge. Hodges means is a complete siege of Crimea. Cutting the island off from lands, seas, and air. starving the russians to death. Then Ukraine army pours in and finishes the job.

Now that’s a very unrealistic scenario. The russians are on the move, while Ukraine army is retreating. But thing can change.
The most favorable scenario for Ukraine is if the US, EU begin to deliver everything Ukraine needs to win the war. The sanctions crush Russia economy. Russian population go hungry to bed. China, India reduce buying cheap oil and gas from Russia. Russia army loses more men and materials than Putin can resupply. That all combined can help Ukraine to retake Crimea.

However there is a risk. The russians will resort to nuclear if they believe they lose the war, they lose Crimea.

Ukraine alone cannot take Crimea. It is too heavily guarded. Even Hitler had trouble taking Crimea after he easily took Paris and Kiev. Even the UK, France, Ottoman empire failed to take Crimea in the Crimean war. The only way Ukraine can possibly take Crimea is if the US, the UK, Germany, France all enter the war directly. But, like I said, that would not be a regional war anymore. That would be a world war involving China, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Belarus.

 

[Viet]

Ukraine alone cannot take Crimea. It is too heavily guarded. Even Hitler had trouble taking Crimea after he easily took Paris and Kiev. Even the UK, France, Ottoman empire failed to take Crimea in the Crimean war. The only way Ukraine can possibly take Crimea is if the US, the UK, Germany, France all enter the war directly. But, like I said, that would not be a regional war anymore. That would be a world war involving China, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Belarus.

The russians have about 50,000 men in Crimea. So about 15 brigades or 2 armies. That’s not something Ukraine arny can‘t handle. Ukraine kills or disables 400,000 men of Russia arny in 2y.
What Ukraine army needs is big guns. Like the German army in WW2 using big guns to take Crimea.
Then about 300 nukes.
Just in case Putin runs amok.

 

[Yommie]

The russians have about 50,000 men in Crimea. So about 15 brigades or 2 armies. That’s not something Ukraine arny can‘t handle. Ukraine kills or disables 400,000 men of Russia arny in 2y.

Perhaps. But Russia has more people than Ukraine. 140 million compared to 33 million. Ukraine will need much better weapons to win against Russia.

 

[Viet]

Perhaps. But Russia has more people than Ukraine. 140 million compared to 33 million. Ukraine will need much better weapons to win against Russia.

That is 1:4. If Ukraine can kill 4 russians with 1 own casualty. Bigger guns, more money, more men, technology, nukes, all combined will help Ukraine to kick out russians and win the war.
Ever heard of Palantir? Or Clearview?
Ukraine can identify every single russian soldier in Ukraine. Ukraine knows who they are, where they come from. Software, drones, robots will help killing more enemies.

 

[Yommie]

That is 1:4. If Ukraine can kill 4 russians with 1 own casualty. Bigger guns, more money, more men, technology, nukes, all combined will help Ukraine to kick out russians and win the war.
Ever heard of Palantir? Or Clearview?
Ukraine can identify every single russian soldier in Ukraine. Ukraine knows who they are, where they come from. Software, drones, robots will help killing more enemies.


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Perhaps. It depends on who has more will to fight. Syrian army was on paper more powerful than rebels yet rebels kicked Syrian army's butt. Russians are more angry than Ukrainians after 8 years of Ukrainian army shelling innocent Russian civilians. So as an analogy Russian army compared to Ukrainian army = rebels compared to Syrian army.