Israeli missile defences (deployed) - assessment and strategies

[Persian Gulf]

Overview of deployed Israeli air defences:

• Arrow-2/3: 3 batteries
• THAAD: unknown (0-1 batteries)
• Patriot (PAC-2): 3-4 batteries
• David's Sling: 2 batteries
• Iron Dome: 10 batteries

Arrow-2/3: 3 batteries

Presume 2 Arrow-2 batteries and 1 Arrow-3 battery

1 battery = 4-8 launchers
1 launcher = 6 Arrow-2/3

--> each battery has 24-48 Arrow-2 missiles
Arrow-2 = 2 x 8 x 6 = 86 Arrow-2 missiles
Arrow-3 = 1 x 8 x 6 = 48 Arrow-3 missiles
= up to 134 total Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 missile interceptors deployed across Israel at any one time

THAAD: 0-1 batteries (not confirmed)

1 battery = 6 launchers
1 launcher = 8 interceptors

Israel does not have any of its own THAAD systems but the US sent unknown number of launchers to Israel in 2019. Assume 1 battery = up to 48 THAAD missile interceptors deployed (by USA).

Patriot PAC-2 air defence system: 3-4 batteries

1 battery = 6 launchers
1 launcher = 4 PAC-2 (OR 16 PAC-3 missiles)

--> each battery has up to 24 PAC-2 interceptors

Israel has 3-4 Patriot PAC-2 batteries deployed = (3-4) x 6 x 4 = 72-96 PAC-2 missile interceptors deployed at any one time

David's Sling: 2 batteries

1 battery = unknown number of launchers (presume 4-6)
1 launcher = 6-12 Stunner missile interceptors

--> each battery has 24-72 Stunner interceptors

Israel is estimated to have 2 David's Sling batteries deployed = 2 x 24-72 = 48-148 missile interceptors deployed at any one time

Iron Dome: 10 batteries

1 battery = 3-4 launchers
1 launcher = 20 Tamir missile interceptors

--> each battery has 60-80 Tamir interceptors

= 20 x (3-4) x 10 = 600-800 Iron Dome interceptors deployed across all of Israel at any one time

Relevance for Iranian ballistic missiles?

Iron Dome and David's Sling are not designed to intercept MRBMs so are of limited relevance.

Relevant systems: Arrow-2/3, Patriot PAC-2 and THAAD. Conservative estimates (from Iran's perspective) therefore suggest a total number of 278 ABM interceptors (134 Arrow-2/3 + 48 THAAD + 96 Patriot PAC-2) deployed by Israel to counter Iranian MRBMs.

Assuming Israel fires 2 interceptors per 1 MRBM detected = can attempt to intercept c. 140 MRBMs at once. If we assume no THAAD and 3 PAC-2 batteries instead of 4, this becomes c. 100 MRBMs.

600-700 MRBMs from Iran would mean Israel has to fully reload all such systems 4-6 times over. At that point (in reality, likely well before this point), Israeli ABM capability would likely be seriously degraded with inventories depleted (even accounting for US transfer of additional supplies).

Alternatively or in parallel, swarms of Iranian UAVs (Shahed-136, Shahed-238, Arash) and Fattah-1/2 HGV missiles could attempt to target Israeli radars or launchers, further degrading Israeli ABM capability, creating a positive impact where Iranian MRBMs have greater success.

If anyone has better data or wants to correct some numbers above, or add more information about where these missile batteries are deployed, please add.

Discuss.

@Nuffle @Hack-Hook @RescueRanger @LegionnairE @GWXP @mulj

 

[F-22Raptor]

I think you also have to factor in SM-3 and SM-6 missiles from US cruisers and destroyers. Also the US may have brought additional Patriot batteries to the region.

I seriously doubt Iran will fire hundreds of ballistic missiles. In that case you invite massive retaliation on Iranian soil not only from Israel but the US.

 

[Nuffle]

As I already said:
Since the US promises to help Israel under the command of CENTCOM, the US can likely provide some type of advance warning due to its orbital surveillance system that detects missile launches leaving the atmosphere.

Tracking would be carried out by the organic radars of the Patriot system and the THAAD that they operate and perhaps by some long-range ground-based radar.

Additionally, you have to check what number of air defense ships escorting a CSG are in the area. The @F-22Raptor posted a tweet about it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778837371582136606

It needs to be taken into account, after all, the US can help defend Israel, but this is only as a complement, because the topic itself is about Israel's capabilities, but if we were to analyze the entire situation, we would have to include all these devices for increasing AA/ABM capability.

Here is an analysis of the type we are looking for:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778610151617933541

There are 5 DDGs and 1 CG

 

[Nuffle]

As I already said:
Since the US promises to help Israel under the command of CENTCOM, the US can likely provide some type of advance warning due to its orbital surveillance system that detects missile launches leaving the atmosphere.

Tracking would be carried out by the organic radars of the Patriot system and the THAAD that they operate and perhaps by some long-range ground-based radar.

Additionally, you have to check what number of air defense ships escorting a CSG are in the area. The @F-22Raptor posted a tweet about it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778837371582136606

It needs to be taken into account, after all, the US can help defend Israel, but this is only as a complement, because the topic itself is about Israel's capabilities, but if we were to analyze the entire situation, we would have to include all these devices for increasing AA/ABM capability.

Here is an analysis of the type we are looking for:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778610151617933541

There are 5 DDGs and 1 CG

And also:

I don't know about that, I know they have based THAAD in Saudi Arabia. In Israel, the Americans have 1 AN/TPY-2 X-band radar at Mount Keren.

Jordan: 2 bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE
Kuwait: 2 SAM bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE
Qatar: 2 SAM bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE and 1 AN/TPY-2 X-band radar
United Arab Emirates: 2 SAM bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE
Saudi Arabia: 1 SAM bty M902/M903 Patriot PAC-3/PAC-3 MSE and 1 SAM bty THAAD

 

[Shadihassan28]

I think you also have to factor in SM-3 and SM-6 missiles from US cruisers and destroyers. Also the US may have brought additional Patriot batteries to the region.

I seriously doubt Iran will fire hundreds of ballistic missiles. In that case you invite massive retaliation on Iranian soil not only from Israel but the US.

Whatever happens and honestly starting to get really feel like this is being staged, unless iran has been playing everyone for a fool. Hypothetically if iran intends to strike a serious strategic targets in Israel or neighboring countries I think iran has shown it knows how to circumnavigate air defenses. Let’s say iran is attempting just a pyrotechnic show either way Israel will respond and if the response is on Iranian territory it’s going to a war of the military bases and everything else that is considered high value targets between Israel and iran, neither side will win but it will be which side can make the other bleed more neither side has the capability to invade unless iran has been hiding 300 to 500 thousand troops in Syria

 

[Persian Gulf]

I think you also have to factor in SM-3 and SM-6 missiles from US cruisers and destroyers. Also the US may have brought additional Patriot batteries to the region.

I seriously doubt Iran will fire hundreds of ballistic missiles. In that case you invite massive retaliation on Iranian soil not only from Israel but the US.

This thread is about "Israeli missile defences (deployed)", so no, I don't have to factor in another country's missile defences.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Whatever happens and honestly starting to get really feel like this is being staged, unless iran has been playing everyone for a fool. Hypothetically if iran intends to strike a serious strategic targets in Israel or neighboring countries I think iran has shown it knows how to circumnavigate air defenses. Let’s say iran is attempting just a pyrotechnic show either way Israel will respond and if the response is on Iranian territory it’s going to a war of the military bases and everything else that is considered high value targets between Israel and iran, neither side will win but it will be which side can make the other bleed more neither side has the capability to invade unless iran has been hiding 300 to 500 thousand troops in Syria

thread is only about Israeli air defences and strategies to defeat them

 

[Nuffle]

There are 5 DDGs and 1 CG

Typical configuration of a DDG for anti-ballistic defense:

Source:

Missile Loadouts: Arleigh Burke (1991-2018)

Naval history and theory focusing on force structure, weapons, and other technology. Emphasizing post WWII history and learning lessons from the past.

influenceofhistory.blogspot.com

CG Ticonderoga:

Source:

Missile Loadouts: Ticonderoga-class (1983-2018)

Naval history and theory focusing on force structure, weapons, and other technology. Emphasizing post WWII history and learning lessons from the past.

influenceofhistory.blogspot.com

 

[F-22Raptor]

This thread is about "Israeli missile defences (deployed)", so no, I don't have to factor in another country's missile defences.

It affects the entire air defense situation of Israel if Iran attacks.

 

[Immortals]

This thread is about "Israeli missile defences (deployed)", so no, I don't have to factor in another country's missile defences.

Well you should consider it. Or else this analysis has no real point since additional capabilities of the enemy’s Allies reinforces their BMD shield and you aren’t taking that into account.

US destroyers and Radars are moving into position to support Israel and provide targeting and interception. Jordan will likely shoot down any CMs/Drones/BMs flying thru it’s territory.

So it’s not as easy simple as saying 3 Arrow Batteries X Patriot batteries X THAAD etc etc and trying to extrapolate how many missiles need to be fired.

 

[Persian Gulf]

anyone have data about known deployment locations of Israeli ABM systems?

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

Overview of deployed Israeli air defences:

• Arrow-2/3: 3 batteries
• THAAD: unknown (0-1 batteries)
• Patriot (PAC-2): 3-4 batteries
• David's Sling: 2 batteries
• Iron Dome: 10 batteries

Arrow-2/3: 3 batteries

Presume 2 Arrow-2 batteries and 1 Arrow-3 battery

1 battery = 4-8 launchers
1 launcher = 6 Arrow-2/3

--> each battery has 24-48 Arrow-2 missiles
Arrow-2 = 2 x 8 x 6 = 86 Arrow-2 missiles
Arrow-3 = 1 x 8 x 6 = 48 Arrow-3 missiles
= up to 134 total Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 missile interceptors deployed across Israel at any one time

THAAD: 0-1 batteries (not confirmed)

1 battery = 6 launchers
1 launcher = 8 interceptors

Israel does not have any of its own THAAD systems but the US sent unknown number of launchers to Israel in 2019. Assume 1 battery = up to 48 THAAD missile interceptors deployed (by USA).

Patriot PAC-2 air defence system: 3-4 batteries

1 battery = 6 launchers
1 launcher = 4 PAC-2 (OR 16 PAC-3 missiles)

--> each battery has up to 24 PAC-2 interceptors

Israel has 3-4 Patriot PAC-2 batteries deployed = (3-4) x 6 x 4 = 72-96 PAC-2 missile interceptors deployed at any one time

David's Sling: 2 batteries

1 battery = unknown number of launchers (presume 4-6)
1 launcher = 6-12 Stunner missile interceptors

--> each battery has 24-72 Stunner interceptors

Israel is estimated to have 2 David's Sling batteries deployed = 2 x 24-72 = 48-148 missile interceptors deployed at any one time

Iron Dome: 10 batteries

1 battery = 3-4 launchers
1 launcher = 20 Tamir missile interceptors

--> each battery has 60-80 Tamir interceptors

= 20 x (3-4) x 10 = 600-800 Iron Dome interceptors deployed across all of Israel at any one time

Relevance for Iranian ballistic missiles?

Iron Dome and David's Sling are not designed to intercept MRBMs so are of limited relevance.

Relevant systems: Arrow-2/3, Patriot PAC-2 and THAAD. Conservative estimates (from Iran's perspective) therefore suggest a total number of 278 ABM interceptors (134 Arrow-2/3 + 48 THAAD + 96 Patriot PAC-2) deployed by Israel to counter Iranian MRBMs.

Assuming Israel fires 2 interceptors per 1 MRBM detected = can attempt to intercept c. 140 MRBMs at once. If we assume no THAAD and 3 PAC-2 batteries instead of 4, this becomes c. 100 MRBMs.

600-700 MRBMs from Iran would mean Israel has to fully reload all such systems 4-6 times over. At that point (in reality, likely well before this point), Israeli ABM capability would likely be seriously degraded with inventories depleted (even accounting for US transfer of additional supplies).

Alternatively or in parallel, swarms of Iranian UAVs (Shahed-136, Shahed-238, Arash) and Fattah-1/2 HGV missiles could attempt to target Israeli radars or launchers, further degrading Israeli ABM capability, creating a positive impact where Iranian MRBMs have greater success.

If anyone has better data or wants to correct some numbers above, or add more information about where these missile batteries are deployed, please add.

Discuss.

@Nuffle @Hack-Hook @RescueRanger @LegionnairE @GWXP @mulj

The real question is how far the USA can go for Israel in the event of a war with Iran.

USA will play the important role.

 

[Immortals]

Typical configuration of a DDG for anti-ballistic defense:
View attachment 33302
Source:

Missile Loadouts: Arleigh Burke (1991-2018)

Naval history and theory focusing on force structure, weapons, and other technology. Emphasizing post WWII history and learning lessons from the past.

influenceofhistory.blogspot.com

CG Ticonderoga:
View attachment 33303
Source:

Missile Loadouts: Ticonderoga-class (1983-2018)

Naval history and theory focusing on force structure, weapons, and other technology. Emphasizing post WWII history and learning lessons from the past.

influenceofhistory.blogspot.com

The problem is this load out doesn’t assume the ongoing efforts in Red Sea.

Many destroyers are running low on ammo due to expending countless missiles to defend against various Houthi munitions. Add in Ukraine and Israel wars that are consuming US/NATO supply of AD missiles and you have a global shortage:

So I’m curious how many munitions these ships currently have on hand. Likely will be to help for a limited salvo event + CM + drone type event. But if Israel escalates and it becomes a shootout than all of these ships will run out quickly and there just isn’t a huge supply of AD missiles to go around between all parties (Ukraine, US, Jordan, Israel)

 

[Persian Gulf]

There are 5 DDGs and 1 CG

which of these ships is supposed to be able to intercept Iranian MRBMs flying over Iraq/Jordan/Syria?

US directly intercepting Iranian MRBMs heading to Israel is not the primary interception threat for Iran. US help for Israel comes in many forms (such as early warning detection and tracking assistance as you mentioned), not just interception

 

[RescueRanger]

anyone have data about known deployment locations of Israeli ABM systems?

We can hazard a guess based on the two threat maps below: