New Nvidia Blackwell GPUs put China further behind global leading edge in AI chips amid US sanctions

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The gap between China and the US in leading artificial intelligence (AI) chip technology is set to widen further, after Nvidia founder and chief executive Jensen Huang unveiled next-generation processors for what he called a new era of generative AI and robotics used in industries.


In a keynote speech on Sunday ahead of the Computex trade show in Taiwan that runs from June 4 to 7, the 61-year-old billionaire said computers are “no longer just an instrument for information storage or data processing, but a factory for generating intelligence for every industry.”


Nvidia plans to upgrade its AI accelerators – processors designed to efficiently process AI tasks – every year, and the next-generation Blackwell Ultra is expected to be released next year, succeeding the Blackwell platform chips unveiled in March.


Blackwell platform chips are expected to enter the market in the third quarter and take up just under 10 per cent of the high-end graphics processing unit (GPU) market, according to a note by Taipei-based research firm TrendForce.

“Nvidia is proactively pushing its AI technologies to meet global demand,” said Arisa Liu, a semiconductor research director at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, adding that Nvidia’s new chip architecture, Rubin, will adopt Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)’s 4-nanometre process.


Many of the semiconductors and servers that enable AI breakthroughs are assembled or made by TSMC.

Silicon Valley-based Nvidia is on track to overtake Apple as the world’s second-most valuable technology company, with its shares having surged over 120 per cent to US$1,095.95 since the beginning of this year.

However, the chip designer’s business in China is facing mounting challenges amid US export restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology and rising competition from local firms led by Huawei Technologies.


Nvidia’s most powerful Blackwell line, including the B100, B200 and GB200, adds to a growing list of GPU models that are barred by the US from being shipped to China, the company’s third-largest market by revenue last year.


Washington’s embargo and Nvidia’s continuous technological advancement will put China further behind the world’s leading edge in AI infrastructure, according to industry analysts and professionals.

While China has earmarked 344 billion yuan (US$47.5 billion) for the latest phase of its state-backed semiconductor investment fundto speed up its national self-sufficiency drive, many industry professionals said limited GPU choices, lack of access to advanced chip manufacturing, and an underdeveloped software ecosystem have made it difficult to rely on domestic AI solutions.


Huawei and Chinese start-up Biren Technology, which produce some of the country’s most reputable home-grown AI chips, are both on the US trade blacklist, forcing them to turn to domestic foundries to produce their chips using less advanced manufacturing processes.


China’s top foundry, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), which is also sanctioned by the US, faces bottlenecks in adding more advanced capacities needed to make AI chips.

Huawei’s Ascend 910B chip, which has been adopted by various industries in China, is only able to achieve about 60 to 70 per cent of Nvidia A100’s performance, according to multiple computation experiments.


Many home-grown chips are behind Nvidia’s in performance and stability, according to one researcher at China’s server maker H3C, who said that the lag affects China’s development of large AI models. The person, who declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak to the media, said H3C tested various GPUs, including those from Cambricon, Iluvatar Corex and Huawei.


Huawei is striving to improve its technology. The Shenzhen-based giant, which staged a comeback in the 5G smartphone market last year using chips produced by SMIC, is developing a 5-nm process node using deep ultraviolet lithography systems and a technology known as self-aligned quadruple patterning, according to a Bloomberg report in March.

More advanced chip-making technologies can improve performances and lower power consumption of high-end chips.


However, it was not easy for China to achieve 7-nm chip production, and there is only a small likelihood that China can progress quickly to more advanced 5nm or 3nm nodes, said Zhang Pingan, CEO of Huawei Cloud, during a recent China Mobile conference.


Huawei’s ecosystem is also less developed than Nvidia’s CUDA, which has become an essential AI development platform used by some 5 million developers globally. Huawei’s equivalent, in contrast, has a much smaller use base worldwide.
 
I am quite famililar with GPU and AI business:

Huawei is scheudled to launch Ascend 910c very very soon (I mean definitely in this year, and actually could be in 1 or 2 months).

Ascend 910c will offer 1Pflops FP16 computing power for dense gemm, which is the same as Nvidia's H100.

Besides the ridiculus FP4, B100 is just about 15-25% better than H100 for AI task (FP16/FP8 etc), on flops/per watt basis, btw.

And at the event when Huawei launch Ascend 910c, Huawei will also launch their version of super "GPU" grid like NV72 with B200.

So just stay tunned.

Btw we all know LLM is all hype, most of the LLM start-up and companies are just burning investor's money and make little return, actually in China, AI and cloud computing resource providers are offer large discounts to potential LLM customers, the price is even below their costs.

The only ones who actually making money in this huge LLM bubbles are GPU providers like Nvidia and Huawei, as well as some AI course/tutorial providers.

Huawei and Nvidia in AI business is just like BYD and Tesla in EVs.
 
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I am quite famililar with GPU and AI business:

Huawei is scheudled to launch Ascend 910c very very soon (I mean definitely in this year, and actually could be in 1 or 2 months).

Ascend 910c will offer 1Pflops FP16 computing power for dense gemm, which is the same as Nvidia's H100.

Besides the ridiculus FP4, B100 is just about 15-25% better than H100 for AI task (FP16/FP8 etc), on flops/per watt basis, btw.

And at the event when Huawei launch Ascend 910c, Huawei will also launch their version of super "GPU" grid like NV72 with B200.

So just stay tunned.

Btw we all know LLM is all hype, most of the LLM start-up and companies are just burning investor's money and make little return, actually in China, AI and cloud computing resource providers are offer large discounts to potential LLM customers, the price is even below their costs.

The only ones who actually making money in this huge LLM bubbles are GPU providers like Nvidia and Huawei, as well as some AI course/tutorial providers.

Huawei and Nvidia in AI business is just like BYD and Tesla in EVs.

Thank you!

This opened my eyes.

Great knowledge.
 
Actually China will keep closing the gap with USA till it is zero in 2030.

AI is vastly overhyped anyway as there is no "thinking" involved.
 
Actually China will keep closing the gap with USA till it is zero in 2030.

AI is vastly overhyped anyway as there is no "thinking" involved.

It will take beyond 2030s to close the gap. China is still developing indeginous 28nm lithography machine which is supposed to be delivered this year. While West already has the 3nm fabrication technology.
 
It will take beyond 2030s to close the gap. China is still developing indeginous 28nm lithography machine which is supposed to be delivered this year. While West already has the 3nm fabrication technology.

Actually Huawei's new phone's chip has a realized density (not PPT density which is theortical density, so dont compare apple to orange) of 128 million silicons/mm^2, which is about the same as chips built by TSMC N5, and better than Samsung's N4 (which has a realized density of 117 million/mm^2), less than TSMC's N4 (has realized density of 182 million/mm^2).

So it is not 28 vs 3, more like N5 vs N3, and it is not China vs West, more like China vs China Taiwan.

Once China take over taiwan the gap will be vanished, since 30% or so tech used in ASML are sourced from TSMC.

And the date China take back taiwan, according to US's own estimation, is around 2027.
 
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Actually Huawei's new phone's chip has a realized density (not PPT density which is theortical density, so dont compare apple to orange) of over 140 million silicons/mm^2, which is about the same as chips built by TSMC N5.

So it is not 28 vs 3, more like N5 vs N3, and it is not China vs West, more like China vs China Taiwan.

Once China take over taiwan the gap will be vanished, since 30% or so tech used in ASML are sourced from TSMC.

And the date China take back taiwan, according to US's own estimation, is around 2027.

Do you feel China will pull the trigger on Taiwan?
 
Actually Huawei's new phone's chip has a realized density (not PPT density which is theortical density, so dont compare apple to orange) of over 140 million silicons/mm^2, which is about the same as chips built by TSMC N5.

So it is not 28 vs 3, more like N5 vs N3, and it is not China vs West, more like China vs China Taiwan.

Once China take over taiwan the gap will be vanished, since 30% or so tech used in ASML are sourced from TSMC.

And the date China take back taiwan, according to US's own estimation, is around 2027.

I am talking about indeginous lithography machine. Yes, Hawaii did manufacture 7nm and 5nm chips. But using a mix of western technology. Not with indeginous machine.

And Taiwan don't make the machines that fabricate chips. It's Netherlands.
 
Do you feel China will pull the trigger on Taiwan?

I personly feel the time China pull the trigger is the time when China filled the hundreds of ICBM launch silos in Northwest China idenitied by US in recent years.

China's leadership dont take risks, I dont believe they will start the war, which could lead to an all-out one, with a strategic nuclear gap.

So thats why I believe there is certain truth in the US's estimated time: 2027.
 
I am talking about indeginous lithography machine. Yes, Hawaii did manufacture 7nm and 5nm chips. But using a mix of western technology. Not with indeginous machine.

And Taiwan don't make the machines that fabricate chips. It's Netherlands.

US dont have Indeginous DUV or EUV machines, either, so what?

And in China, indeginous duv and euv are two parallel projects, running neck to neck, 28nm DUV machine is a ridiuculs term.

Actually DUV machine can make up to TSMC N5 chipsets, not 28nm, you will see China's indeginous chip (at least N5) built by fullly indeginous machine in around 1-2 years, since many of China's AI start-up has placed the order by that time, and Huawei will definitely get that done sooner.
 
I personly feel the time China pull the trigger is the time when China filled the hundreds of ICBM launch silos in Northwest China idenitied by US in recent years.

China's leadership dont take risks, I dont believe they will start the war, which could lead to an all-out one, with a strategic nuclear gap.

So thats why I believe there is certain truth in the US's estimated time: 2027.

China isn't going to risk having pictures of Chinese weapons killing people in the streets of Taiwan.

Any takeover will be bloodless.
 
It will take beyond 2030s to close the gap. China is still developing indeginous 28nm lithography machine which is supposed to be delivered this year. While West already has the 3nm fabrication technology.



Err, China just recently applied for patent for EUV.

I would not now be surprised if China is in the lead by 2030.
 
Err, China just recently applied for patent for EUV.

I would not now be surprised if China is in the lead by 2030.

Applying for Patent and actual mass production with enough numbers of systems is not the same thing.
 

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