What China’s increasing use of military over diplomacy means for US

[KamranSH]

In August 2022, after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China’s military did the talking.

It lobbed ballistic missiles around the island, some landing just inside Japanese waters. More than 20 Chinese aircraft flew across the midpoint between the mainland and Taiwan, a move once considered taboo. The People’s Liberation Army staged elaborate military exercises, rehearsing the parts it could play in an actual invasion.

There were two key aspects of the response: One, the PLA flouted norms — and has kept doing so in the year since — that had kept the Taiwan Strait stable for decades. And two, while China’s government had multiple ways to signal its displeasure at the visit, it chose its military.

This is a new hallmark of Chinese foreign policy under President Xi Jinping, according to the Pentagon’s annual assessment of China’s military strength.

“The [People’s Republic of China] has increasingly turned to the PLA as an instrument of statecraft to advance its foreign policy objectives,” the report noted.

In other words, when China senses a problem abroad, it’s now more likely to use the military to solve it. This approach, say Pentagon officials and outside analysts, has been in the works for years and speaks to the PLA’s weight class.

China has spent decades bolstering its military with the goal to fully become a “world class” force by 2049. That offers challenges for the U.S., which has spent recent years shoring up alliances and partnerships in the vast Indo-Pacific region.

While the U.S. may soon encounter Chinese forces in more areas around the globe, it’s also concerned about China’s desire to unite Taiwan with the mainland, since Beijing considers the island nation a rogue province. And a foreign policy reliant on military force could make an invasion more likely.

“If you go back to 2016, the military element was part of what has been a diplomatic, economic, information, influence and military pressure campaign against Taiwan,” a senior Pentagon official said on the condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly. “What we’ve seen in more recent years is the military playing a more outsized role in that pressure campaign.

‘A more precise hammer’​

Nearly every world power, if not all, uses its military for statecraft — not least the United States. Take for example the two flotillas America rushed to the Middle East after Israel declared war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip in October.

China may have longed for such a capability, but lacked the military strength.

Then came Xi Jinping.

Since he took office in 2012, the Chinese president has steered massive amounts of money into the military. It now spends the second-most money on defense with a budget of about $230 billion in 2022, according to the Pentagon report; only America’s defense spending exceeds that amount, with the Defense Department’s fiscal 2022 budget reaching $740 billion.

U.S. President Joe Biden, right, and Chinese President President Xi Jinping walk in the gardens at the Filoli Estate in Woodside, Calif., on Nov, 15, 2023. (Doug Mills/The New York Times via AP)

In October 2022, Xi reaffirmed his goal for the PLA to be capable of unifying Taiwan with the mainland by 2027. By 2035, its modernization effort is to be “basically complete,” the Pentagon noted.

Among the trends noted in the Pentagon’s report are a rise in China’s ballistic missile arsenal, the addition of 30 ships in the People’s Liberation Army Navy fleet, and a growth in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s combat aircraft fleet.

And last year, the Chinese military continued its trend of holding increasingly more military exercises with Russia, one of America’s leading adversaries. The Pentagon anticipates the PLA will host more joint drills with foreign partners in the years ahead.

China’s military is also “very likely” working to grow the number of overseas logistics facilities after the first such base in Djibouti in 2017, the report noted.

“We’re going to have to be prepared for PLA presence, ultimately, in locations where we’re not used to having them,” the Pentagon official said.

Closer to home, China’s military has shown assertiveness in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. The Pentagon has recently released videos showing Chinese jets buzzing past U.S. and allied aircraft in the region. In one example, a Chinese J-11 fighter flew within 10 feet from an American B-52 bomber at night. There were more than 180 of these “coercive and risky” intercepts against American aircraft in the last two years — more than occurred in the previous decade, according to the Pentagon.

This is part of a larger effort by Beijing to use the military as a regional bouncer, per U.S. assessments.

“They’re leaning on the PLA more to try to intimidate, to coerce, to increase risk, and thereby make the U.S. ... and other countries think twice about conducting actions that we have every right to conduct,” the Pentagon official said.

So far, this midair activity has amounted to only close calls. In part, that reflects China’s newfound capabilities. For example, in 2001, one of its aircraft crashed into a U.S. surveillance plane, leading to a short-lived diplomatic crisis.

But today, China’s pilots are more skilled and its aircraft more advanced, allowing them to fly closer to adversaries while avoiding a collision, according to Rod Lee, director of research at the U.S. Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute.

“They can use the military maybe not as a scalpel, but it is a more precise hammer than it used to be,” Lee told Defense News.

According to Meia Nouwens, a China expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, Beijing may increasingly find diplomacy less appealing when it comes to its relationship with Taipei.

“It just seems like perhaps they’re more willing [to use the PLA] because they have the capability to do so, but also because there are fewer options left for them to explore,” she said.

Source: https://www.defensenews.com/outlook...-use-of-military-over-diplomacy-means-for-us/

 

[bengalcdn]

Thank you. I hope we dont get bombarded by those wumao mc bananas brigades.

I notice you always attack Chinese members, never Indians or zionists. Tell us the truth how much are you getting paid to attack Chinese posters here?

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Israil and Ukraine have shown the USA is a declining super power.....

 

[VCheng]

Israil and Ukraine have shown the USA is a declining super power.....

And just how have you arrived at such a conclusion? Please do explain. May be a longer time scale causes more hemorrhage by design?

 

[Developereo]

I notice you always attack Chinese members, never Indians or zionists. Tell us the truth how much are you getting paid to attack Chinese posters here?

China's rise has caused much heartburn around the world, especially amongst people who are brainwashed by Western media to equate only white skin with superiority and success.

The brilliance of China's success is that they forge ahead, completely unfazed by Western propaganda, unlike other peoples, especially us Muslims, who are still consumed by a colonialist slave mentality.

Israil and Ukraine have shown the USA is a declining super power.....

Ukraine is a resounding American success. Europe and Russia, two wannabe challengers to American dominance, are at each other's throat. Not so long ago, things were looking rosy between these two neighbors, but America did the needful and now sits back and watches from far...

 

[VCheng]

China's rise has caused much heartburn around the world, especially amongst people who are brainwashed by Western media to equate only white skin with superiority and success.

The brilliance of China's success is that they forge ahead, completely unfazed by Western propaganda, unlike other peoples, especially us Muslims, who are still consumed by a colonialist slave mentality.

The 800 lb gorilla that everybody ignores due to being blinded by the brilliance of their open-world-trade-fueled economic rise is their oppressively authoritarian form of government. That is the problem for everyone, not the economy.

 

[Developereo]

The 800 lb gorilla that everybody ignores due to being blinded by the brilliance of their open-world-trade-fueled economic rise is their oppressively authoritarian form of government. That is the problem for everyone, not the economy.

I remember there was a letter writing campaign in the UK where Brits wrote letters to Americans urging them not to vote for Trump.

The commentary by non-Chinese lecturing them about their government is at the same level of comedy.

 

[VCheng]

I remember there was a letter writing campaign in the UK where Brits wrote letters to Americans urging them not to vote for Trump.

The commentary by non-Chinese lecturing them about their government is at the same level of comedy.

Not really. The world knows that such oppression, when (and not if) it collapses, causes a huge headache for everyone. Just look at human history. Comedy? Only for the gullible. The real irony is that even the much touted Chinese economic miracle was made possible only by the global system that was set up for free trade.

 

[Developereo]

Not really. The world knows that such oppression, when (and not if) it collapses, causes a huge headache for everyone. Just look at human history. Comedy? Only for the gullible. The real irony is that even the much touted Chinese economic miracle was made possible only by the global system that was set up for free trade.

You are arguing in circles. Oppression is YOUR word and you are projecting based on YOUR premise. If the premise is faulty, the conclusion also will be.

As for the global system, the Chinese played the game as was laid out by the dominant West at the behest of their own corporations, for their own benefit. The Chinese beat them at their own game, and the resulting tantrum is all the more amusing for it.

 

[VCheng]

The Chinese beat them at their own game, and the resulting tantrum is all the more amusing for it.

Ah yes. Well, the game is NOT over, and "tantrum" is YOUR word, which doesn't really apply in international geopolitics. There is always the next innings, and then another one after that, ad infinitum. So, there.

Now, can we have a mature discussion or not? Just ask the Uighurs and the Tibetans what the word I used above means and then tell me it is merely my premise. Never mind the millions killed inside China since 1948.

 

[Developereo]

Ah yes. Well, the game is NOT over, and "tantrum" is YOUR word, which doesn't really apply in international geopolitics. There is always the next innings, and then another one after that, ad infinitum. So, there.

The word tantrum was apropos in response to the cynical reference to a 'much touted [...] miracle' but anyway let's move ahead...

Now, can we have a mature discussion or not? Just ask the Uighurs and the Tibetans what the word I used above means and then tell me it is merely my premise. Never mind the millions killed inside China since 1948.

Firstly, let's focus on the present and future. Many governments have a checkered past: western governments also killed large numbers, but those were indigenous peoples, not whites, so I guess they don't count. Indeed, the Chinese government made mistakes in the past but recent history shows them elevating the Chinese nation to unforeseen heights.

The oppression of Uyghurs and Tibetans is a familiar talking point of Chinese critics, but both these have been discussed and dealt with in countless threads on the old forum and elsewhere. One thing we know for sure is that the Western concern for Uyghurs has nothing to do with Uyghuys: it is a transparent attempt to create mischief between China and the Muslim world. These tactics used to work in the past but no more.

What's amusing is that the Western tacticians who have mastered these divide-and-conquer techniques over decades are found so wanting and impotent in this matter. Perhaps the 'uncivilized non-white masses' have become a bit more sophisticated to see through these manipulations.

 

[VCheng]

Indeed, the Chinese government made mistakes in the past but recent history shows them elevating the Chinese nation to unforeseen heights.

So why is it that you are not willing to apply the same standard to others? That is the real amusing part here, actually.

 

[Developereo]

So why is it that you are not willing to apply the same standard to others? That is the real amusing part here, actually.

How so?

My criticism of Western governments is exclusively aimed at their foreign policies. Domestically, Western countries remain the best places on the planet, at least for me, given my limited polyglot skills.

 

[VCheng]

How so?

My criticism of Western governments is exclusively aimed at their foreign policies. Domestically, Western countries remain the best places on the planet, at least for me, given my limited polyglot skills.

As a beneficiary of the living standards in the West, you also have the luxury of being able to participate in the open process for influencing those policies that you do not agree with. Imagine that!

IF you are doing so, then I have no issue with your right to express such views.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I notice you always attack Chinese members, never Indians or zionists. Tell us the truth how much are you getting paid to attack Chinese posters here?

Noted.