Beijingwalker
Frequent Poster
- Nov 4, 2011
- 88,594
- 110,741
- Country of Origin
- Country of Residence
What To Expect From Chinese Plane Maker COMAC In 2024
Considering the recovery patterns in the civil aviation industry post-pandemic, although the performance is satisfactory, although the performance is satisfactory, COMAC still faces significant challenges in all three aircraft programs (ARJ21, C919, C929) as the upcoming year, 2024, approaches.
More important than the decline in delivery numbers is the cessation of ARJ21 aircraft acceptance by two key customers, Chengdu Airlines and One Two Three Airlines (a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Eastern Airlines), this year. In contrast, the other two major state-owned airlines in China (Air China and China Southern Airlines) have continued to receive 9 ARJ21 aircraft each as planned. These 18 aircraft account for 86% of the total ARJ21 deliveries this year.
Photo: COMAC
The three major state-owned airlines in China placed an order for 105 ARJ21 aircraft in 2019. While widely seen as a supportive measure by the Chinese government for its domestically manufactured aircraft, this order played a pivotal role in the ARJ21 project at that time.
Subsequently, as part of a so-called "political mission," the three airlines strictly adhered to the schedule for receiving ARJ21 aircraft. In 2020, each received three aircraft; in 2021, each received four; in 2022, Air China and China Southern Airlines received eight, while One Two Three Airlines received 10. This year, Air China and China Southern Airlines continue to receive eight each as planned, while One Two Three Airlines has received none.
There is no reported explanation for why One Two Three Airlines stopped accepting ARJ21 aircraft in 2023. A plausible inference is that Air China and China Southern Airlines, as groups, receive ARJ21 aircraft, allowing them to allocate capacity reasonably among their various subsidiaries.
On the other hand, One Two Three Airlines, being a China Eastern Airlines subsidiary based in Shanghai and exclusively operating domestically manufactured aircraft, may lack the capacity or time slots to accept additional ARJ21 aircraft and cannot transfer them to other subsidiaries within the China Eastern Airlines group once its capacity or schedules are saturated.
Photo: COMAC
For 2024, it is anticipated that Air China and China Southern Airlines will continue to receive seven to eight ARJ21 aircraft each as planned. Their 35 aircraft orders are expected to be completed by mid-2025. However, there is no indication from either airline regarding any plans to increase ARJ21 orders beyond the initial 35 aircraft.
Therefore, in 2024, COMAC should actively negotiate with China Eastern Airlines to resume the acceptance of the remaining 18 aircraft from their order and simultaneously prepare for the future beyond 2025. If the three major airlines shift their focus to receiving C919 aircraft after completing their respective 35-aircraft ARJ21 orders, it could significantly impact ARJ21 orders and deliveries.
Consequently, COMAC is gradually shifting the sales focus of the ARJ21 to the Southeast Asian market. In addition to TransNusa Airlines in Indonesia, which has already received two ARJ21 aircraft and Gallop Air in Brunei, with signed purchase orders in September, COMAC is also targeting other ASEAN-friendly countries such as Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. If COMAC dispatches ARJ21 aircraft to these countries for market demonstration flights in 2024, it should not come as a surprise.
China Eastern deployed all three C919 aircraft on routes between Shanghai and Chengdu. The airline applied for three round-trip flights (MU9187/8, MU9197/8, MU9189/90), with MU9189/90 operating on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays, while the other two flights operated daily. This means that on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, one C919 aircraft serves as a backup.
The initial plan for China Eastern's first batch of 5 C919 aircraft was to complete deliveries by the end of 2023, with two remaining undelivered. However, in late September, the airline placed an additional order for 100 C919 aircraft from COMAC. According to the agreement, these aircraft are scheduled for delivery between 2024 and 2031. As per the proposed timeline, the plan is to deliver five aircraft in 2024, ten each year from 2025 to 2027, fifteen each year from 2028 to 2030, and ultimately, twenty aircraft in 2031.
Photo: COMAC
Additionally, last weekend, on December 23, Air China released a fundraising announcement in the share market, stating its intention to purchase 6 C919 aircraft. This marks the first official confirmation that Air China will introduce C919 aircraft in 2024.
It's worth mentioning that Air China's announcement also disclosed the latest catalog price for the C919 aircraft, which is $108 million, slightly higher than the catalog price of $99 million announced by China Eastern in May 2022.
If all goes according to plan, another major Chinese airline, China Southern Airlines, is likely to receive C919 aircraft next year, but the quantity is expected to be around 5.
In late April of this year, HNA Group also signed a purchase agreement with COMAC for 100 aircraft, including 60 C919 aircraft and 40 ARJ21 aircraft. The 60 C919 aircraft are intended to be introduced by HNA Aviation Group's Urumqi Air and Suparna Airlines.
If these ambitious plans are realized, it will pose a significant challenge for COMAC in 2024. Taking into account the two undelivered C919 aircraft owed to China Eastern this year, the planned delivery quantity for C919 next year might be around 20 aircraft. This represents a growth expectation of 600%-700% compared to the three aircraft delivered this year.
Photo: Changshui Airport
Furthermore, at the 2023 Pujiang Forum held in early September, He Dongfeng, the chair of COMAC, revealed that the latest order quantity for the C919 has reached 1061 aircraft. The future development of this aircraft includes a shortened version (for high-altitude regions) and an extended version, covering seat capacities ranging from 130 to 240.
According to information released by COMAC, the C919 shortened version will reduce the length to around 34 meters and the seat count to 130–140 seats based on the standard version. COMAC hopes to enhance the high-altitude operational capabilities of this model by reducing its size and weight. As a country with the most high-altitude and plateau airports, COMAC aims to challenge the longstanding dominance of the A319 in the plateau market with the C919 shortened version.
The C919 extended version will lengthen to around 45 meters based on the standard version, with the seat count increased to around 240 seats and an additional pair of cabin doors added to the aft fuselage. This configuration is similar to the Airbus A321 and may become the best-selling model within the C919 family in the future.
COMAC is likely to learn from the experience of the Russian SSJ100 project and strive to reduce dependence on Western technology from the initial stages of project design. While this will inevitably cause delays in the project timeline, it is a necessary choice against China's increasingly tense relations with the West.
Therefore, in 2024, we can expect to see more and more domestic Chinese suppliers actively participating in the C929 project.
So, next year will see challenges and opportunities for COMAC and will be a crucial period for the company's development. The outfit needs to seek more customers domestically and internationally for the ARJ21 project to maintain its hard-earned achievements. It should also focus on the serialized development, accelerated production, and stable delivery of the C919 family. Additionally, efforts should be made to identify more reliable domestic suppliers for the C929 project.
simpleflying.com
BYSU WU
December. 26 2023SUMMARY
- COMAC needs to seek more customers domestically and internationally for the ARJ21 project to maintain its hard-earned achievements.
- The company should also focus on the serialized development, accelerated production, and stable delivery of the C919 family.
- COMAC should be made to identify more reliable domestic suppliers for the C929 project.
Considering the recovery patterns in the civil aviation industry post-pandemic, although the performance is satisfactory, although the performance is satisfactory, COMAC still faces significant challenges in all three aircraft programs (ARJ21, C919, C929) as the upcoming year, 2024, approaches.
The ARJ21 program
During the strict control of the COVID-19 pandemic in China over the past three years (2020, 2021, 2022), COMAC delivered 23, 21, and 34 ARJ21 aircraft, respectively. As of now, in 2023, the delivery count is 21, representing a 38% year-on-year decrease.More important than the decline in delivery numbers is the cessation of ARJ21 aircraft acceptance by two key customers, Chengdu Airlines and One Two Three Airlines (a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Eastern Airlines), this year. In contrast, the other two major state-owned airlines in China (Air China and China Southern Airlines) have continued to receive 9 ARJ21 aircraft each as planned. These 18 aircraft account for 86% of the total ARJ21 deliveries this year.
Photo: COMAC
The three major state-owned airlines in China placed an order for 105 ARJ21 aircraft in 2019. While widely seen as a supportive measure by the Chinese government for its domestically manufactured aircraft, this order played a pivotal role in the ARJ21 project at that time.
Subsequently, as part of a so-called "political mission," the three airlines strictly adhered to the schedule for receiving ARJ21 aircraft. In 2020, each received three aircraft; in 2021, each received four; in 2022, Air China and China Southern Airlines received eight, while One Two Three Airlines received 10. This year, Air China and China Southern Airlines continue to receive eight each as planned, while One Two Three Airlines has received none.
There is no reported explanation for why One Two Three Airlines stopped accepting ARJ21 aircraft in 2023. A plausible inference is that Air China and China Southern Airlines, as groups, receive ARJ21 aircraft, allowing them to allocate capacity reasonably among their various subsidiaries.
On the other hand, One Two Three Airlines, being a China Eastern Airlines subsidiary based in Shanghai and exclusively operating domestically manufactured aircraft, may lack the capacity or time slots to accept additional ARJ21 aircraft and cannot transfer them to other subsidiaries within the China Eastern Airlines group once its capacity or schedules are saturated.
Photo: COMAC
For 2024, it is anticipated that Air China and China Southern Airlines will continue to receive seven to eight ARJ21 aircraft each as planned. Their 35 aircraft orders are expected to be completed by mid-2025. However, there is no indication from either airline regarding any plans to increase ARJ21 orders beyond the initial 35 aircraft.
Therefore, in 2024, COMAC should actively negotiate with China Eastern Airlines to resume the acceptance of the remaining 18 aircraft from their order and simultaneously prepare for the future beyond 2025. If the three major airlines shift their focus to receiving C919 aircraft after completing their respective 35-aircraft ARJ21 orders, it could significantly impact ARJ21 orders and deliveries.
Consequently, COMAC is gradually shifting the sales focus of the ARJ21 to the Southeast Asian market. In addition to TransNusa Airlines in Indonesia, which has already received two ARJ21 aircraft and Gallop Air in Brunei, with signed purchase orders in September, COMAC is also targeting other ASEAN-friendly countries such as Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. If COMAC dispatches ARJ21 aircraft to these countries for market demonstration flights in 2024, it should not come as a surprise.
The C919 program
Although the ARJ21 project hasn't been particularly impressive, the reception and operation of the C919 aircraft have brought significant prestige to China Eastern Airlines. On the first anniversary of receiving the inaugural C919, China Eastern took delivery of its third C919 aircraft, putting it into operation just four days later, on December 13th.China Eastern deployed all three C919 aircraft on routes between Shanghai and Chengdu. The airline applied for three round-trip flights (MU9187/8, MU9197/8, MU9189/90), with MU9189/90 operating on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays, while the other two flights operated daily. This means that on Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Saturdays, one C919 aircraft serves as a backup.
The initial plan for China Eastern's first batch of 5 C919 aircraft was to complete deliveries by the end of 2023, with two remaining undelivered. However, in late September, the airline placed an additional order for 100 C919 aircraft from COMAC. According to the agreement, these aircraft are scheduled for delivery between 2024 and 2031. As per the proposed timeline, the plan is to deliver five aircraft in 2024, ten each year from 2025 to 2027, fifteen each year from 2028 to 2030, and ultimately, twenty aircraft in 2031.
Photo: COMAC
Additionally, last weekend, on December 23, Air China released a fundraising announcement in the share market, stating its intention to purchase 6 C919 aircraft. This marks the first official confirmation that Air China will introduce C919 aircraft in 2024.
It's worth mentioning that Air China's announcement also disclosed the latest catalog price for the C919 aircraft, which is $108 million, slightly higher than the catalog price of $99 million announced by China Eastern in May 2022.
If all goes according to plan, another major Chinese airline, China Southern Airlines, is likely to receive C919 aircraft next year, but the quantity is expected to be around 5.
In late April of this year, HNA Group also signed a purchase agreement with COMAC for 100 aircraft, including 60 C919 aircraft and 40 ARJ21 aircraft. The 60 C919 aircraft are intended to be introduced by HNA Aviation Group's Urumqi Air and Suparna Airlines.
If these ambitious plans are realized, it will pose a significant challenge for COMAC in 2024. Taking into account the two undelivered C919 aircraft owed to China Eastern this year, the planned delivery quantity for C919 next year might be around 20 aircraft. This represents a growth expectation of 600%-700% compared to the three aircraft delivered this year.
Photo: Changshui Airport
Furthermore, at the 2023 Pujiang Forum held in early September, He Dongfeng, the chair of COMAC, revealed that the latest order quantity for the C919 has reached 1061 aircraft. The future development of this aircraft includes a shortened version (for high-altitude regions) and an extended version, covering seat capacities ranging from 130 to 240.
According to information released by COMAC, the C919 shortened version will reduce the length to around 34 meters and the seat count to 130–140 seats based on the standard version. COMAC hopes to enhance the high-altitude operational capabilities of this model by reducing its size and weight. As a country with the most high-altitude and plateau airports, COMAC aims to challenge the longstanding dominance of the A319 in the plateau market with the C919 shortened version.
The C919 extended version will lengthen to around 45 meters based on the standard version, with the seat count increased to around 240 seats and an additional pair of cabin doors added to the aft fuselage. This configuration is similar to the Airbus A321 and may become the best-selling model within the C919 family in the future.
The C929 program
With the withdrawal of Russian involvement, COMAC has decided to proceed with the development of its long-range wide-body aircraft project, changing the project name from the original CR929 to C929.COMAC is likely to learn from the experience of the Russian SSJ100 project and strive to reduce dependence on Western technology from the initial stages of project design. While this will inevitably cause delays in the project timeline, it is a necessary choice against China's increasingly tense relations with the West.
Therefore, in 2024, we can expect to see more and more domestic Chinese suppliers actively participating in the C929 project.
So, next year will see challenges and opportunities for COMAC and will be a crucial period for the company's development. The outfit needs to seek more customers domestically and internationally for the ARJ21 project to maintain its hard-earned achievements. It should also focus on the serialized development, accelerated production, and stable delivery of the C919 family. Additionally, efforts should be made to identify more reliable domestic suppliers for the C929 project.
What To Expect From COMAC In 2024
2024 will be a year of both challenges and opportunities for COMAC, and it will be a crucial year for COMAC's development.
simpleflying.com
