Lebanon-Israel War | 2023-present

[Shags101]

a leopard doesn't change its spots

He was never that bad and he always had valid arguments and points you can be on the side of one fence but honestly he has become way to much this war in Gaza has made people far to toxic I’m sorry to say that I had to unfollow him and put him on ignore

 

[Sarhang]

He was never that bad and he always had valid arguments and points you can be on the side of one fence but honestly he has become way to much this war in Gaza has made people far to toxic I’m sorry to say that I had to unfollow him and put him on ignore

He is a genuine anti Israeli fighter/activist. He is just pissed that Khamenei is playing political jihad with the Palestinian cause.

Imagine being Palestinian… thousands of your people die and the ones who spent decades claiming they ''fight for your cause'' suddenly disappear the moment the real fight starts.

October 7 was the day to prove their sincerity but AOR chickened out and the rest is history.

 

[Watandar]

He is a genuine anti Israeli fighter/activist. He is just pissed that Khamenei is playing political jihad with the Palestinian cause.

Imagine being Palestinian… thousands of your people die and the ones who spent decades claiming they ''fight for your cause'' suddenly disappear the moment the real fight starts.

October 7 was the day to prove their sincerity but AOR chickened out and the rest is history.

The AoR are the only ones who went the distance with Israel, sacrificed their lives and leadership and expended huge amounts of money and weapons fighting the Israelis.

Its another matter that AoR was never built to fight like a nation state, and Hamas never let them know Oct 7th was coming, but the blindsided/sanctioned to the hilt AoR fought alongside their allies anyway and suffered tremendous losses. The beloved Sunnis did absolutely zilch for Palestine throughout.

I dont know what else people are expecting, for Khamenei to pick up a rifle and himself go fight Israel ? Why are such demands never made of others like that big mouth Erdogan ? Or the Arab autocrats or Pakistanis or other Muslim states ?

 

[vizier]

It seems fpv quad copter drones and mini fixed wing kamikaze drones are way better than classical 20+ year old Hezbollahs mlrs deterrence strategy that is very visible from air by all means. If Hezbollah has training and enough number of them preferrably the unjammable fiber optical quad copter fpv drones it can be a deterrant against a future attack. Waiting from outside to things get better wont work or taking half thought insufficient precautions and feeling good about them. They need to think and work those challanges out and the time is ticking against them.

Quod copters unloaded without explosives can one way reach and land 20+km(Ukranian Russian ones are much more than that) inside Labennon to be taken and configured inside Labennon. Fixed wing drones unloaded with explosive can be recovered by parachute for transfer.

Why would you tell Hamas you will have their back and agreed to form unity of fronts concept for Jerusalem if you never wanted the fight? Why the inconsistency and indecisiveness ?

When you pledged to do the minimum of 'support strikes' and told every international diplomat and Lebanese and Arab diplomats that you won't get any more deeply involved they went ahead with full scorched earth annihilation assault on Gaza

And they also took advantage of your incompetence and still carried out their secret war plan against you

..
..

Qassem said Hezbollah constantly communicated with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri during Lebanon’s ceasefire negotiations with Israel on the deal’s content. Ultimately, he claimed, Hezbollah accepted the ceasefire not out of weakness but because it never wanted the war.

Analysis: Naim Qassem explains Hezbollah’s vision for the future in first long-form interview

Al Manar hosted Naim Qassem for his first lengthy interview as Hezbollah’s secretary-general. Qassem threatened to resume attacking Israel if it didn’t withdraw from south Lebanon and explained Hezbollah’s vision for the future, including the group’s intention to retain its arms and freedom of...

www.longwarjournal.org

Hezbollah does not have full political control of Labennon unlike Gaza where Hamas has total unchallanged control. There would be a civil war if Hezbollah joined immediately after 7 October and still a civil war is likely with foreign stooges and backing in Labennon. After 7 October Hezbollah could have prepared better weapons quad copter drones and maybe better air defense(but we saw there are gaps in Irans ad too mass production of some light weight medium altitude weapons like 358 sam that can be transferred abroad and heavier less transferable khordad 3 for Iran themselves were necessary not producing some inadequate number of prototypes.) and could have put a much better fight against israel though. Either you learn from your mistakes and get better or you cant survive next time. I hope this has been understood.

 

[Persian Gulf]

Hezbollah does not have full political control of Labennon unlike Gaza where Hamas has total unchallanged control. There would be a civil war if Hezbollah joined immediately after 7 October and still a civil war is likely with foreign stooges and backing in Labennon. After 7 October Hezbollah could have prepared better weapons quad copter drones and maybe better air defense(but we saw there are gaps in Irans ad too mass production of some light weight medium altitude weapons like 358 sam that can be transferred abroad and heavier less transferable khordad 3 for Iran themselves were necessary not producing some inadequate number of prototypes.) and could have put a much better fight against israel though. Either you learn from your mistakes and get better or you cant survive next time. I hope this has been understood.

good summary

 

[Falcon29]

Dude your posts are starting to get cringe worthy I’m not trying to be mean but honestly past few month it’s more ranting than actual discussion

You worry too much about validation from a few Iranian members. This is the truth about this group. They backed out last minute. Messed up the whole strategy. Then after all these attacks they go make a sectarian speech mostly about Syria and are gaslighting Syrians.

It's a horribly incompetent organization that made no achievement in past 20 years. The organization has lots of life lines because US/Arab regimes /Israel prefer it to alternative in Lebanon. Even with Iran they made zero effort for regime change. With Gaza they've been trying as hard as they could to make regime change. Now they do same with Syria, occupy half the country two different nations, sanctions, regular attacks.

Syrians, Lebanese and Palestinians/Hamas will quietly work behind the scenes to change reality of Levant. Syrian wisdom will be at play here.

 

[Falcon29]

Hezbollah does not have full political control of Labennon unlike Gaza where Hamas has total unchallanged control. There would be a civil war if Hezbollah joined immediately after 7 October and still a civil war is likely with foreign stooges and backing in Labennon. After 7 October Hezbollah could have prepared better weapons quad copter drones and maybe better air defense(but we saw there are gaps in Irans ad too mass production of some light weight medium altitude weapons like 358 sam that can be transferred abroad and heavier less transferable khordad 3 for Iran themselves were necessary not producing some inadequate number of prototypes.) and could have put a much better fight against israel though. Either you learn from your mistakes and get better or you cant survive next time. I hope this has been understood.

They have way bigger control than people know of. A huge landmass, entire country that's open to the world unlike Gaza. They're in the government and control parts of it. I posted in previous page they outright said they agreed to ceasefire because they didn't want the war. It's clear what they mean that they didn't want this Hamas war in their eyes which is Hamas's problem to deal with and wanted to disengage from Gaza.

Their only option to disengage from Gaza was to have Israel do an initial large scale aerial attack (2 days) then agree to ceasefire. They couldn't agree sooner because Israel did limited ground invasion that threw them off.

They had 20 years to prepare and had opportunities to draw lessons from all Gaza wars (2012-2014-2021) and they didn't. They instead sent their people to Iraq, Syria and Yemen in a stupid sectarian conflict that was dealt with by international coalition and local forces. There was no need for Hezbollah.

We needed them to strike at Israel more effectively (not even 30% of their capacity ) to make Israel have to redraw its ground invasion strategy for Gaza but they didn't and instead told everybody we're just doing minimal solidarity token strikes and have no intention for anything more. They told this to American, Lebanese and Arab officials. Immediately a savage full scale ground invasion on Gaza commenced.

Did Hezbollah decide to change after this experience? No they didn't. It's same the thing before Nasrallah. The whole speech yesterday was about Syria and Arabs. Almost nothing about Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

They refuse to play their role in Resistance Axis despite most of the budget being spent on them. They were even asked in 2021 to help even make a small contribution and they denied the request.

We're not trusting this group again. We helped so much to improve their public relations, destroyed our public relations to keep ties with them. It's a net negative to have ties with this movement if you aren't Iran.

 

[Falcon29]

If Israel does any attack on Lebanon it will be after Pope visit before Christmas or after Christmas (US holiday)

Palestinians in Lebanon need to take precaution. Israel may very well attack Palestinian refugee camps

Hezbollah I doubt will be on alert I haven't seen anything to suggest they have a proper functioning chain of command nor any plan B /protocols of response if coming under varying degrees of attack . Which is what Hamas had and it was operational. Hamas works in way where fighters respond to degree of attack based on what they were trained on and a proportional manner to the severeness of attack. They don't receive any orders for a response and don't have to wait for any. The standard protocol is to respond.

Hezbollah has no protocols in place. Besides consult Lebanese government and others tell them we will absorb attack and not put up a fight.

A competent and creative organization would show something different this time around. They used to be creative and have surprises. In 2006 they captured Israeli soldiers, fired the rockets they had, hit an Israeli warship, struck Israeli northern home front. This was due to Imad Mughienyeh leadership. Once Nasrallah and Iran took over all creativity went into dustbin.

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[ResurgentIran2]

Hamas is going to quietly oust Hezbollah from Lebanon with cooperation of Syrian factions

Because we don't like fraud movements cowards that back out last minute from their pledge to fight in an existential war for Jerusalem

Then afterwards dedicate all their energy and resources to toppling new Syrian government, wasting everybody's times and energy making us focus on Syria rather than Israel

Looking at things logically, even if Hamas made a political decision to "oust Hezbollah" (they havent), that is not really a feasible notion. Hezbollah is more than a resistance actor and militia. It is a political actor, which just won local elections, and are intertwined with society with its social programs and institutions. It had a constituence to cater to. Just like Hamas in Gaza.

You are entitled to your own opinions, but I think you should consider taking a little break. What you are saying is not based on logic but emotions. Extreme emotions at that, that from where we are standing almost looks like a psycotic breakdown.

Im really not trying to be mean at all. You can hate Iran and Hezbollah. Im just saying sometimes it helps to have some distance, re-center and post from a place of logic and not emotions.

 

[ST1976]

If Israel does any attack on Lebanon it will be after Pope visit before Christmas or after Christmas (US holiday)

Palestinians in Lebanon need to take precaution. Israel may very well attack Palestinian refugee camps

Hezbollah I doubt will be on alert I haven't seen anything to suggest they have a proper functioning chain of command nor any plan B /protocols of response if coming under varying degrees of attack . Which is what Hamas had and it was operational. Hamas works in way where fighters respond to degree of attack based on what they were trained on and a proportional manner to the severeness of attack. They don't receive any orders for a response and don't have to wait for any. The standard protocol is to respond.

Hezbollah has no protocols in place. Besides consult Lebanese government and others tell them we will absorb attack and not put up a fight.

A competent and creative organization would show something different this time around. They used to be creative and have surprises. In 2006 they captured Israeli soldiers, fired the rockets they had, hit an Israeli warship, struck Israeli northern home front. This was due to Imad Mughienyeh leadership. Once Nasrallah and Iran took over all creativity went into dustbin.

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I remember when then Pope did "Namaz" in Turkey, an old news.
Putting the Head of Pope on Turkey's Islamic land has been a "shared honour" by all NATO members.
The Unity of NATO members does increase by these efforts

 

[Falcon29]

Looking at things logically, even if Hamas made a political decision to "oust Hezbollah" (they havent), that is not really a feasible notion. Hezbollah is more than a resistance actor and militia. It is a political actor, which just won local elections, and are intertwined with society with its social programs and institutions. It had a constituence to cater to. Just like Hamas in Gaza.

You are entitled to your own opinions, but I think you should consider taking a little break. What you are saying is not based on logic but emotions. Extreme emotions at that, that from where we are standing almost looks like a psycotic breakdown.

Im really not trying to be mean at all. You can hate Iran and Hezbollah. Im just saying sometimes it helps to have some distance, re-center and post from a place of logic and not emotions.

Nothing I said is from position of emotions. Hezbollah hasn't made a single military achievement since 2006. They've failed to evolve and instead regressed, entered foreign conflicts they had no business in.

Hamas in Lebanon has no choice but to grow. And other factions in Lebanon. Because regional security is intertwined we can't have a supposed heavy weight back out last second and not contribute.

US and Israel are occupying both Gaza and Syria. US is doing majority of occupation of Syria. US still maintains sanctions on Syria. Syria isn't allowed to rebuild still besides some crumbs here and there. The key to eliminating that occupation is reforming Lebanon and using it as a leverage.

Turkey/Qatar/Syria/Hamas would be smart to invest in Lebanon to use as leverage at negotiations table for Syria to demand end to US and Kurdish occupation.

This is where it's heading as Hezbollah continues to lose influence in Lebanon. US/Israel will attack Lebanon and Syria to prevent that and we will see how that ends up working for them. By then maybe another front erupts they weren't expecting.

 

[Falcon29]

Why are these guys almost all wearing tattoos and calling themselves an Islamic Resistance Movement ? It's forbidden in Islam to have tattoos.

They're like imposters. I actually believe they were afraid of fighting at anything more than minimum tempo.

I never seen IRGC members wear tattoos.

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[Falcon29]

This organization is a big letdown. Used to be military centric back in 2006-2009 before Imad Mughienyeh was killed. Now it's just gooning against the Lebanese government for years now.

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[ResurgentIran2]

Nothing I said is from position of emotions. Hezbollah hasn't made a single military achievement since 2006. They've failed to evolve and instead regressed, entered foreign conflicts they had no business in.

Hamas in Lebanon has no choice but to grow. And other factions in Lebanon. Because regional security is intertwined we can't have a supposed heavy weight back out last second and not contribute.

US and Israel are occupying both Gaza and Syria. US is doing majority of occupation of Syria. US still maintains sanctions on Syria. Syria isn't allowed to rebuild still besides some crumbs here and there. The key to eliminating that occupation is reforming Lebanon and using it as a leverage.

Turkey/Qatar/Syria/Hamas would be smart to invest in Lebanon to use as leverage at negotiations table for Syria to demand end to US and Kurdish occupation.

This is where it's heading as Hezbollah continues to lose influence in Lebanon. US/Israel will attack Lebanon and Syria to prevent that and we will see how that ends up working for them. By then maybe another front erupts they weren't expecting.

Hamas is in survival mode in Gaza right now as the size and control of its enclave is ever decreasing. The occupation of Gaza by Israel has been legitimized and internationalized with that agreement and Trump plan (signed by all Arab countries among other Muslim nations).

To say Hamas is about to increase its role in Lebanon and oust Hezbollah, is to me not really a serious proposition.

 

[Shags101]

US said to warn Iraq that Israel will strike militias that seek to aid Hezbollah | The Times of Israel

www.timesofisrael.com

So I may have been off on my 72 hour prediction about Hezbollahs response to killing their military chief(still believe it’s going to happen when or even where is up in the air) but it’s starting to look more and more likely Israel about to commit to large air land and sea invasion there telling every country out there whose weak and can not defend against an Israeli attack even one with American troops that they’re next if they even shoot off one drone