yesterday, I heard all day, podcasts of ex-IA officials
one interview, shed some light on purpose of Cold Strike!
he said, it is meant to take storage sites of Pak. offensive missiles like NASR!
Cold Strike, is supposed to go through the defenses without the use of armor
Was it Cold
Strike or Cold
Start?
The Cold Start doctrine goes back to 2000. The objective of Cold Start was to make an unexpected ( unprovoked) sudden intense thrust or incursion at some point on the international border and seize a large chunk of territory. After declaring a unilateral ceasefire the captured territory would be used to negotiate for the withdrawal of Pakistani troops from Azad Kashmir. The war games ( military exercises) for Cold Start were centered around the Multan-Dera Ismail Khan axis, intended to cut off Lahore and Hyderabad.
Foreign Military experts found the Cold Start doctrine feasible given India's overwhelming advantage in air power, attack helicopters, armor and artillery back-up.
Cold Start elsewhere
Ukraine did a version of Cold Start in 2024. Backed by NATO intelligence, ATACMs support, and sophisticated armor Ukraine seized 1000 sq.km of territory in the Kursk region. Ukraine hoped to use it as a negotiating point after a ceasefire , and force Russia to vacate the Donbas and Crimea.
The Russians were not impressed, and continued to seize territory in the Donbas. Six months later Russia pivoted back in a crushing counter-offensive, to throw the Ukrainian forces out of Kursk.
Ukraine paid dearly for the diversion of forces desperately required on other key areas of the front in defense of its own territory,. Casualty figures are sketchy but Ukraine is estimated to have lost 6000-8000 elite fighting men, along with hundreds of fighting vehicles and dozens of helicopters. The only saving grace was that most of the surviving Ukrainian forces managed to slip out of encirclement, so Russia took far fewer prisoners than it had hoped for.
Five soldiers tell the BBC of their withdrawal in the face of overwhelming firepower and drones.
www.bbc.com
Cold Strike - Cold Start combo
Pakistan's response to a Cold Start or Cold Strike is going to be very different from Russia. Pakistan does not enjoy strategic depth like Russia and can't afford even a temporary occupation of its territory. If India seizes territory Pakistan will not be able to recover it without jeopardizing its position on the other areas of the front.
Which is why an instant tactical nuclear response to a Cold Startv is inevitable should an Indian armored break through happen. India knows the threat from tactical nuclear weapons to its Cold Start doctrine. As far as is known Pakistan has only one way of delivering a tactical nuclear response to a surprise Indian attack ; which is using its Nasr missiles. India knows the peacetime locations of these missiles and therefore will target these before launching Cold Start in a Cold Strike using its tried and tested Brahmos missiles.
At this point the Cold Strike seems very feasible
It is unclear at this stage what is Pakistan's counter strategy but it is worth considering the following :
1. Pakistan will likely be alerted and tipped off by its allies of an impending Cold Strike. By contrast Russia was taken by surprise by the Ukrainian Kursk incursion.
2. Pakistan would move its Nasr missiles to safer locations possibly in hardened shelters but that would limit their usage as Nasr missiles are short range, and need to be closer to the front in the actual zone of the fighting.
3. Pakistan may arm its other assets with tactical nukes such as the longer range Ra'ad cruise missiles or drones.
4. Pakistan may use stand off weapons such as glide bombs configured as tactical nukes.
5.Pakistan could consider using nuclear mines or booby traps and deliberately retreat to lure the enemy Integrated Battle Groups into a kill zone.
At this point not much is known about Pakistan's anticipated response to a Cold Strike-Cold Start, but there will be tactical nuclear surprises in store.
