Russia - Ukraine war part ll. News and Discussions

vizier said:
Gripen wont arrive soon yes but what about F4E F5E and other retired aircraft from nato inventories for example Germany. They are amraam capable. Although one to one they are no match against Su35 with an awacs support from Romanian airspace they can be pretty useful over Kherson and even parts of Zaporizia. Many of these aircraft will be downed but Ukraine will care less about aircraft losses as long as sustained damage is inflicted partially or fully blocking Ruaf operations over Kherson and Crimea.
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The F-16 was a huge upgrade compared to legacy Soviet aircraft, especially considering the use of AAMs with active and semi-active radar, a capability the Ukrainian air force lacked. However, very little was added to counter Russian air power, mainly because the Russians are no longer attempting to penetrate Ukrainian airspace, thus avoiding attrition. Combined with long-range attack capabilities, this attrition will only occur if Ukraine starts exploiting more kills within contested airspace, but that would also put Ukraine at an imminent disadvantage. The situation for Ukraine has no possible long-term solution unless they obtain stealth ISR drones, stealth aircraft, and AWACS with wide coverage, which evidently will not happen. Even then, it doesn't depend on the platform itself but on the combined SEAD/DEAD capability, because the Russians have a very comprehensive IADS apparatus to counter these platforms.
 
Nuffle said:
The F-16 was a huge upgrade compared to legacy Soviet aircraft, especially considering the use of AAMs with active and semi-active radar, a capability the Ukrainian air force lacked. However, very little was added to counter Russian air power, mainly because the Russians are no longer attempting to penetrate Ukrainian airspace, thus avoiding attrition. Combined with long-range attack capabilities, this attrition will only occur if Ukraine starts exploiting more kills within contested airspace, but that would also put Ukraine at an imminent disadvantage. The situation for Ukraine has no possible long-term solution unless they obtain stealth ISR drones, stealth aircraft, and AWACS with wide coverage, which evidently will not happen. Even then, it doesn't depend on the platform itself but on the combined SEAD/DEAD capability, because the Russians have a very comprehensive IADS apparatus to counter these platforms.
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The planes wont work over donbas sector but in kherson and parts of crimea the iads is not as dense as the eastern contested regions. They dont need awacs flying in Ukraine airspace just like global hawk flying over black sea providing target data , an awacs securely flying in Romania can provide target aircraft data for Ukranian planes. Flying low negates iads unless it is very close range. Only when targeting Su35s the planes F16 or others by using data-link from Romanian awacs would need to get into high altitude launch the a2a missile and hold the lock on the target until missile seeker activates and then return again back to low altitude. It will be hard for iads to track low flying aircraft and only at altitude for a short period of time while they are launching a2a missiles they can be targeted by iads. But I agree it will take time to modify-upgrade planes to work with awacs flying in a neighboring country and it will only work in certain sectors like Kherson. Russian usage of awacs is also limited now compared to the beginning of the war this will not work when both sides are using awacs to track low-high flying targets.
 
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There you have it, Trumps peace plan is dead and buried. Back to square one
 
F-22Raptor said:
Just 7,000 Russians dying per week and Russia high on hopium they can take the Donbas by 2028.
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Putin is rich. Those deaths are worth a car.
Previously Putin pays 7.5 million rubles as death bonus for the families plus other payments. Now he only pays 5 million rubles. Then coming monthly payment. Poor families in poor regions of Russia are more than happy.
 
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vizier said:
Gripen wont arrive soon yes but what about F4E F5E and other retired aircraft from nato inventories for example Germany. They are amraam capable. Although one to one they are no match against Su35 with an awacs support from Romanian airspace they can be pretty useful over Kherson and even parts of Zaporizia. Many of these aircraft will be downed but Ukraine will care less about aircraft losses as long as sustained damage is inflicted partially or fully blocking Ruaf operations over Kherson and Crimea.

Demilitarization which are the restrictions over Ukraine that is what they can get as weapons from other countries is still possible with a ceasefire agreement. Demilitarisation objective can also be claimed as a victory from Russian side other than full capture of Donbass. Ukraine wont be getting fighter jets and similar equipment that can threaten Russia in exchange of a lasting ceasefire. Yes some countries like Britain for example can try to use loopholes and give some sensitive weapons to Ukraine but with a good monitoring system arms restrictions can be sustained effectively. It is either demilitarization of Ukraine by a ceasefire agreement or full militarisation of Ukraine with every high end equipment until whole donbas is taken and possibly conflict will still continue even after that.
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F-4E is no match against Su-35 which is upgraded with R-77M which has range 200 km and dual pulse jet. It's Russia's counterpart of PL-15.
 
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Ukrainians on the backfoot in Siversk in northern Donbas.

UA POV; "Horvenko Team" drone unit of the 54th separate mechanized brigade destroy flag planted by the 88th separate motorized-rifle brigade on Siversk School N1, Donetsk oblast, [Geolocation: 48.86960, 38.09052]​


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RU POV: Russian soldiers capture Rivne, near Pokrovsk. [Geolocation of flag raising: 48.301302,37.218474]​


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F-22Raptor said:
Just 7,000 Russians dying per week and Russia high on hopium they can take the Donbas by 2028.
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Not by 2028. It's like Palestine Israel conflict going on for decades.
 
F-22Raptor said:
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There you have it, Trumps peace plan is dead and buried. Back to square one
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Putin
PakAl said:
Russia is slowly taken all of Donbass. They already control 85% of the territory. What benefits will Russia get, they already lost Ukraine due to the war, lost 10,000s of equipment, 100 000s of soldiers. Unless Ukraine agrees to not join Nato, to not allow any nato troops on its land. It will be a failure. What gurantees are their that in 10 years Ukraine will again want to join nato. The war will restart again.

Also Russia is taking extra land than Donbass, possibly for negotiations.

View attachment 164246View attachment 164247
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Donbas is too little for Putin, he will not stop the war.
His endgame is annihilation of Ukraine.
 
Yommie said:
F-4E is no match against Su-35 which is upgraded with R-77M which has range 200 km and dual pulse jet. It's Russia's counterpart of PL-15.
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Aim 120d is also 180km. It will require an upgrade though on F4Es. Radar upgrade is not necessary if Awacs data link is used by F4Es and missiles are guided by data-link. The equalizer here is awacs flying in Romania which cannot be shot down by Russia to not to get into conflict with nato. It will make F4s see Su35 first and shoot first.
Russia cannot fly awacs close to front lines for a long time after several of them were downed a year ago by Ukraine. Ukr airbases can be bombed by Russians and F4 planes will be downed for sure so the planes can be transferred by batches like 50 each until the planes are lost a new batch can be transferred to Ukraine from Poland or nearby countries.
They wont work on eastern regions yet but they can still provide some degree of air control over Kherson and Zaporizia regions with the awacs equalizer where Ukr counter attacks can happen successfully after air control over those areas. Most F4s are in high numbers and are in fliying condition in nato country inventories. They can be upgraded to bvr standards. Unlike Mig-21 the F4s were designed with a bvr consideration.
 
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