JF-17 PFX program

[puttputt]

industries develop as a result of need.

needs dont develop as a result of industry.

Pakistan actually has a habit of this, spend tons on production equiptment when theres no need for it.

your mentality is the wrong way around. When Baykar devleoped their first drone, they did not have a huge production facility, they had a few guys and a shed, they built facility and infrastructure, an industry BECAUSE there was a demand... You think countries setup huge industries for them to sit idle until theres an order"

This was one of the structural flaws with CPEC too, actually. They brute-forced, front-loaded the energy and logistics capacity without the industrial need to drive its use. The assumption was that it was solely the lack of infrastructure that choked industry growth, but no, it was the political and bureaucratic mismanagement at the top that actually scuttled our manufacturing.

In contrast, back in the late 1940s, when we were -- as our resident space agency babu says -- bhuokay, nangay, katchay roads and no stock market etc., we started talks with Lockheed to license-manufacture the F-80 in Pakistan and sent scientists to learn atomic sciences in UK, US, etc.

More dignity and vision in the generation that was bhukay and nangay than the Chinese imported-clothed emperors we have running us today.

 

[Ak01]

This was one of the structural flaws with CPEC too, actually. They brute-forced, front-loaded the energy and logistics capacity without the industrial need to drive its use. The assumption was that it was solely the lack of infrastructure that choked industry growth, but no, it was the political and bureaucratic mismanagement at the top that actually scuttled our manufacturing.

bingo, i tried to avoid bringing it up because itll bring the pitchforks of the SAAR YOU JUST HATE CHINA AND WORSHIP THE WEST crowd.

 

[hasssanali8998]

damn reading this makes me depressed

 

[Corax]

I'm no talking about production lines here, I'm talking about basic industry. For example, both Israel and SA had firms who could produce metal alloys suitable for aviation, because they had companies producing metal alloys for other sectors, they had the expertise to produce aviation grade metal alloys, then they had firms who could cut said alloys into the required size and shapes for aircraft fuselage parts., and the same applies to electrical components, etc. See my point? Has there ever been Pakistani firms who already produce metal alloys from raw materials, for example?

 

[puttputt]

I'm no talking about production lines here, I'm talking about basic industry. For example, both Israel and SA had firms who could produce metal alloys suitable for aviation, because they had companies producing metal alloys for other sectors, they had the expertise to produce aviation grade metal alloys, then they had firms who could cut said alloys into the required size and shapes for aircraft fuselage parts., and the same applies to electrical components, etc. See my point? Has there ever been Pakistani firms who already produce metal alloys from raw materials, for example?

We had the people who could do this, or at least the foundations for it, as late as the early 1990s. One of them actually co-founded and runs an alloys forging company in Canada. There were a few others too, namely top engineers and experts who were working on some interesting stuff at the firms owned by the 22 families. Some of them got jobs in our nuclear program via DESCON, PAEC, etc, and others in NESCOM.

Bro, the industrial base was all there and it was ready to boom, and fkn waderay came into the picture and nationalized it to sht the way they ran Sindh and later Karachi into sht.

Sorry to keep veering off-topic here and there, but I have to paint the visual representation of what happened to our industrial base. Yet, even after that, it was all salvageable, rapairable, and then buildable had good leadership been present. If China could recover from the Cultural Revolution, we could've recovered from the LSD trip the PPP took us on.

 

[Ak01]

Has there ever been Pakistani firms who already produce metal alloys from raw materials, for example?

I mean, we produce submarine steel for example.

But we did not produce this BEFORE we had a demand for it, because industries are built as a result of demand, look at india.

 

[Bilal]

I mean, we produce submarine steel for example.

But we did not produce this BEFORE we had a demand for it, because industries are built as a result of demand, look at india.

Both models work if done right. You can go bottom up or go top down 5 year plans and develop sector and the need with it.

We used to do it back in the days till everything was nuked by nationalization and then by import based consumption growth model. China does it still.

The requisite is competence and no (low) personal interests (aka corruption).

 

[puttputt]

Both models work if done right. You can go bottom up or go top down 5 year plans and develop sector and the need with it.

We used to do it back in the days till everything was nuked by nationalization and then by import based consumption growth model. China does it still.

The requisite is competence and no (low) personal interests (aka corruption).

My optimistic take on this is that we were able to get on the right path when Pakistan was born, i.e., when we had nothing. So, now that we have Pakistan today, everything is doable with actual leadership.

 

[Tariq Habib Afridi]

@puttputt @Ak01 what is stopping us now from making JF17 B3 completely in pakistan? When we own the IP for it also? That is what PFX needs to do now

 

[Ak01]

@puttputt @Ak01 what is stopping us now from making JF17 B3 completely in pakistan? When we own the IP for it also? That is what PFX needs to do now

the project is a the end of its life.

the JF-17s will start seeing retirement, particularly the first ones within the next decade.

the JF-17 filled a niche that existed once, its kinda a dying one though.

Light fighters are inherently limited in what capability they bring, alongside this, if its a low cap fighter, its a burden on limited resources when they could be better applied elsewhere.

the PAF will get smaller as time goes on, focusing on less, but higher end platforms, low cost and the next gen dont really go hand in hand, costs balloon, big air forces will only be for the elites.

PAF's best bet is to take the JF-17, recycle what can be recycled into a UCAV or whatever, but, really, no point in sinking money into JF-17, because now setting up an industry around it will result in a fighter that costs 200,300,400m a unit etc

 

[Bilal]

My optimistic take on this is that we were able to get on the right path when Pakistan was born, i.e., when we had nothing. So, now that we have Pakistan today, everything is doable with actual leadership.

100%. The challenge back then was we didn’t have anything. The challenge now is that “comparatively” we have a better base but now we have entrenched interest groups. Also we have destroyed our bureaucracy with quota system and transfer posting culture, the same arm that used to plan and execute very successfully back in the days is now completely retarded and unworkable.

Who has the understanding and the will do fix it? And is not actually a beneficiary of this mess.

 

[puttputt]

@puttputt @Ak01 what is stopping us now from making JF17 B3 completely in pakistan? When we own the IP for it also? That is what PFX needs to do now

Ultimately, it wouldn't surprise me if that the JF-17 gets replaced by different platforms splitting out each of the multiple roles of the Thunder:

1. Anything re: maritime ops, offensive ops, etc., goes to the J-35AE and Kizilelma-type UCAV.
   
   
2. Anything re: area-wide air defence, limited SOW deployment, etc, goes to the J-10CE.
   
   
3. Anything re: light-fighter, air-policing, random pangay with Afghanistan roles goes to a new LIFT like Hurjet or JL-XX.

100%. The challenge back then was we didn’t have anything. The challenge now is that “comparatively” we have a better base but now we have entrenched interest groups. Also we have destroyed our bureaucracy with quota system and transfer posting culture, the same arm that used to plan and execute very successfully back in the days is now completely retarded and unworkable.

Who has the understanding and the will do fix it? And is not actually a beneficiary of this mess.

Pakistan Defence Party.

 

[PakAl]

Honestly, if you end up with another "joint" project with China, then just save the time and money and buy more J-35A's.

If Pakistan wants to develop a local ability to design fast jets, then why not kick off a project to replace the K8? Or build something like the L-15 and build that solution at home? It will be less technically challenging and there is more opportunity for success. It will help train the required engineers, and it will develop a capability that Pakistan will need by the time the replacement is finished and K8s airframe hours run out ??? You can even make it stealthy if you want. Or a large stealthy UCAV as it will be more appropriate >

The difference is on J10CEs, J35s or F16s Pakistan is not allowed to add their own weaponary, avionics etc. Paf wants to produce own missiles, buy from different sources and incorporate them on Pfx. Regarding building a 4.5th ++ plane on our own it will not happen but possibly plans are in place to get Turkish/Chinese help in design and testing (if pfx is real). We will also need Chinese engine.

 

[Corax]

I mean, we produce submarine steel for example.

But we did not produce this BEFORE we had a demand for it, because industries are built as a result of demand, look at india.

Correct albeit a very linear way of thinking. If companies spring up to cater for a niche low volume demand like submarine tegimented steel, they wouldn't last very long. That's not the way industrialised economies work. I mean if PAC has to resort to ordering wire harnesses from the Chinese for the JF17, what does that say about the state of Pakistani industry? there's no company in Pakistan that can make wire harnesses to the same spec, because there's little demand for any sort of wire harnesses in Pakistan, whether it's for aircraft or otherwise?

 

[PakAl]

Yep, I think PFX Alpha will be an upgraded JF-17 of some sort, not too different than what we have with the Block-3. Any additional work on this fighter will require AVIC's input and, knowing the history of the PAF in managing development projects, likely won't move the needle far in building our indigenous capacity.

The more optimal strategy is to pivot to UCAVs, but have NESCOM's AWC take the lead because it has all of the valuable expertise that could relate to this (MALE UAVs, ALCMs, target drones, etc). Even better, partner AWC with Baykar to design, develop, and (with maximum local sourcing possible) produce a Made in Pakistan jet UCAV in large numbers. Defer the bulk of the subassembly and input supply to the Pakistani private sector, create pathways for Turkish companies to invest and grow said Pakistani ventures, and we're cooking.

In about 10-15 years, those same private Pakistani companies could grow large enough to support the KAAN and Hurjet's supply chain. As they build expertise across those platforms, they will reach a point where they can be given an original fighter design and be well provisioned to support said program.

It's all doable, but it'll take about 5-7 years of good all-around policymaking to set the foundations, plus another 10-15 years to reach maturation (i.e, the point where we can pursue an indigenous fighter program in earnest).

Block 4 or Alpha may come as upgrades but PFX is medium weight 4.5th generation plane, that is the plan, otherwise its possible it will end up like AZM, the 5th generation plane.