PAF F-16 | Discussions

[Ak01]

How would the PAF fund USD10-12bn to replace their viper fleet? This isn't the 80s anymore with US aid. New Vipers, in addition to more J10CE, potentially Block4/PFX JF17, separate PFX, and J35 is all unaffordable.

how would the paf then spend 150-200m+ all in on a j35 deal per unit?

 

[Ali_Baba]

It'd easily be a $10-12 bn program to replace those Block-15s. If LM doesn't secure it, AVIC will, and right now the White House doesn't want to lose any deals of that size to China. Moreover, pressure is mounting on countries to chill with their big Chinese imports, Pakistan won't be an exception IMO (e.g., IMF, FATF, EXIM loans, FDI, etc and other leverage points). The PAF might be the best positioned to sort of balance the matter.

Just my speculation, but through the rest of this decade and into the next, I think PAF will pursue a mix of J-10CEs and new F-16s, and then add NGFA to the mix as the new spear-tip.

I truly don’t see PAF new F16s whe the J35A is so close. The era of new F16s are over as we step stealth platforms for both manned and unmanned platforms. PAF cannot afford PFX Alpha, PFX, Kaan, J35A and Kizilema drones and then buy new F16s on top. The numbers don’t add up financially given how very expensive those f16s are relative to their capabilities and what J35A will offer.

 

[Ali_Baba]

how would the paf then spend 150-200m+ all in on a j35 deal per unit?

It will fund J35A’s by not spending that amount on new build F16s, that is the point.

 

[hasssanali8998]

I truly don’t see PAF new F16s whe the J35A is so close. The era of new F16s are over as we step stealth platforms for both manned and unmanned platforms. PAF cannot afford PFX Alpha, PFX, Kaan, J35A and Kizilema drones and then buy new F16s on top. The numbers don’t add up financially given how very expensive those f16s are relative to their capabilities and what J35A will offer.

no af will switch to just 5th gen platforms , even US cant do it .

 

[Ak01]

PAF cannot afford PFX Alpha, PFX, Kaan, J35A and Kizilema drones and then buy new F16s on top

we dont even know what PFX is. Literally could be nothing... PFX could be a project to make a bolt in house for all we know. Nothing has been defined, its pretty clear why either, if theres no idea of what the project is, then it cant be a failure.

PAF has not committed to KAAN nor J-35 yet. Both are too early. Yes, J-35 is flying, but it means nothing. There will be years of quirks to be ironed out, then years of infra and tactics develoment at the paf side too etc, its a long shot and a multi decade plan id say. Maybe at best PAF could expect a few units in like 10 years as a start or whatever.

Kizilelma, well see what comes of that.

The PAF has to replace F-7's, Mirage's and also up next, the fighter earmarked for retirement is the JF-17, they will hit their lives before F-16s will... Whats the cheapest thing to induct?

More F-16s

 

[Ali_Baba]

no af will switch to just fth gen platforms , even us cant do it .

Do you really think a new build F16 and J35A will cost any different. Take a look at the recent contract prices for F16s.

 

[Ak01]

It will fund J35A’s by not spending that amount on new build F16s, that is the point.

and it will continue to fly F-7s and Erieyes alongside them? What about the infrastructure?

Whats going to replace F-7's, Mirages, and also the JF-17 first blocks that will hit life lims at the time of a potential J-35 induction ( a decade from now)

 

[Corax]

how would the paf then spend 150-200m+ all in on a j35 deal per unit?

I doubt we'll see over 70 J35s in PAF. PFX will probably be the bulk of the fleet, a cheaper replacement for the Vipers. Mirages and F7s won't last long, early Block JF17s will.be replaced by Block 4 and PFX gradually replacing early Block 15 Vipers.

 

[hasssanali8998]

More F-16s

retired f16s right

 

[hasssanali8998]

Take a look at the recent contract prices for F16s.

for us yes because we already have been doing it for 40 years . j35 will need its own infrastructure .

 

[Ali_Baba]

we dont even know what PFX is. Literally could be nothing... PFX could be a project to make a bolt in house for all we know. Nothing has been defined, its pretty clear why either, if theres no idea of what the project is, then it cant be a failure.

PAF has not committed to KAAN nor J-35 yet. Both are too early. Yes, J-35 is flying, but it means nothing. There will be years of quirks to be ironed out, then years of infra and tactics develoment at the paf side too etc, its a long shot and a multi decade plan id say. Maybe at best PAF could expect a few units in like 10 years as a start or whatever.

Kizilelma, well see what comes of that.

The PAF has to replace F-7's, Mirage's and also up next, the fighter earmarked for retirement is the JF-17, they will hit their lives before F-16s will... Whats the cheapest thing to induct?

More F-16s

What I will guarantee you that there is no logical or financial path to where PAF will buy new build F16s. No goverment is going to take that big a risk on weapons procurement from the USA that will need to withstand multiple changes of USA governments.

None. It will be J10Ces, JF17C until J35As turn up.

I have no doubt in my mind about that.

 

[Ak01]

Do you really think a new build F16 and J35A will cost any different. Take a look at the recent contract prices for F16s.

the problem is you read DSCA notifications and dont realise what they're about.

DSCA is a ceiling, not a contract value. On top of that, you literally cannot make a 1:1 comparison, if you look at DSCA notifs for F-16 sales, you will see every single support equip, tech team, training etc all included. You wont see this for a J-10 or J-35 deal. Cost metrics are skewed.

The price people tend to quote for J-10's, would have been purely airframe, missiles and the engine sets. Do you think that price included all the extra infra? GSE, training, MER's, LRU's etc...of course not...

Neither you, nor i can make that comparsion, but im willing to bet a whole lot, that China with J-10s cannot outprice the scale of nearly 5000 f-16s built, particulalry on an airframe to airframe cost basis

 

[hasssanali8998]

PFX will probably be the bulk of the fleet,

brother we don't even know what pfx is .

 

[Ak01]

What I will guarantee you that there is no logical or financial path to where PAF will buy new build F16s. No goverment is going to take that big a risk on weapons procurement from the USA that will need to withstand multiple changes of USA governments.

Well clearly you and the PAF are at loggerheads then. Perhaps you should make them your guarantees, because for all intents and purposes, the signalling is pretty clear and this dsca notif holds some very interesting info.

 

[Ali_Baba]

and it will continue to fly F-7s and Erieyes alongside them? What about the infrastructure?

Whats going to replace F-7's, Mirages, and also the JF-17 first blocks that will hit life lims at the time of a potential J-35 induction ( a decade from now)

J10Ce and JF17Cs will replace until the stealth platforms turn up imho.