PAF F-16 | Discussions

[rafale]

but thats the point, you dont need to induct a new system, it fills the same niche that the other european ones fill, but we just have more experience with it. Though, it is probably less capable

I think its better at this stage to keep with HQ series and get maybe more LOMADs and definitely dedicated air base defense units with a low and medium range tiered defense.......for all service branches.

HQ9s and other long range systems for further out the border defense.

 

[Falcon26]

US strategy in South Asia will adjust to ensure that Pakistan has enough of a stick to slap India in line (to focus on China), but not utterly defeat India in an all-out war -- basically, minimum viable deterrence.

That minimum viable deterrence will likely involve a package of F-16s (new and V-kits) with a solid A2A focus (but limited-to-none A2G) and medium-range SAMs (NASAMS / SL-AMRAAM).

Hmm

You’re being a bit optimistic here. There’s no change in US South Asia strategy. It’s just Trump being unpredictable and chaotic. The US strategy remains to prop up India as a containment of China. Trump’s tariff wars are disrupting this strategy.

The program will resume when either the tariff issue is resolved or Trump is out of office.

Pakistan is just an irritant to keep India in line vis-a-vis tariffs. Nothing beyond that. The US has absolutely zero interest in shoring up Pakistan’s military capabilities, whether minimum or maximum deterrence.

 

[Yasser76]

Hmm

You’re being a bit optimistic here. There’s no change in US South Asia strategy. It’s just Trump being unpredictable and chaotic. The US strategy remains to prop up India as a containment of China. Trump’s tariff wars are disrupting this strategy.

The program will resume when either the tariff issue is resolved or Trump is out of office.

Pakistan is just an irritant to keep India in line vis-a-vis tariffs. Nothing beyond that. The US has absolutely zero interest in shoring up Pakistan’s military capabilities, whether minimum or maximum deterrence.

Sorry, you are missing the big picture here now, US does not just see Pakistan through the prism of India or Afghanistan anymore, if you have not realised that over last 6 months you simply have not been keeping up.

GCC, Gaza, rare minerals are all at play now. Trump is transactional and countries that make a deal will move ahead.

 

[rafale]

Hmm

You’re being a bit optimistic here. There’s no change in US South Asia strategy. It’s just Trump being unpredictable and chaotic. The US strategy remains to prop up India as a containment of China. Trump’s tariff wars are disrupting this strategy.

The program will resume when either the tariff issue is resolved or Trump is out of office.

Pakistan is just an irritant to keep India in line vis-a-vis tariffs. Nothing beyond that. The US has absolutely zero interest in shoring up Pakistan’s military capabilities, whether minimum or maximum deterrence.

In the last 20 years, what has India delivered to USA in terms of containment of China?

Containment of China is a bygone word, a past that only fools live in. It is IMPOSSIBLE to contain China.

In the last 20 years China went from being to be noticed to arriving in your face. There is nothing India offers against China.

Chinese economy and industry is far ahead that any comparison is just population vs population. India stagnated its real reforms because of same old desi mindset and corruption. China didn't.

There is not a single industry that is in India that can compete with China. Military technology, well, lets compare DRDO with Chinese military complex......what do you say?

No amount of USA weapons to India will change that. If you're talking about US selling F-35s to balance? Forget it. Even if India gets it, there will be so many restrictions on it and so much cost that IAF will simply give up.......just look at the time they took to finalize the original MMRFA Rafale order.......which got shot out of the sky by Pakistan.

In an all out war where India tries to use F-35s.........China will make mince meat out of them. Each one of them.

 

[Ali_Baba]

FAAZ-1 could amount to something if it's a straight-up license-built SD-10.

The PAF needs a low-cost short-to-medium-range SAM, and the SD-10 platform is a pretty good get -- if we're able to manufacture it locally.

It's a shame we didn't just ask for the Aspide platform full ToT when we bought the Spada 2000. Could've built upgraded SAMs at home (using an active radar homing seeker) for the Army (instead of the LY-80) and to give a PAF an at-home SL-AMRAAM-type system.

PAF should have finished off and deployed the FAAZ, even if it was not "good enough" to take down a Rafale etc.

We are entering the era of the mass deployment of drones, and PAF needs a cost effective missile to be able to take them down where the technical demands are not as great as those for a fighter jet.

A mistake IMHO to not develop it as a homegrown product.

 

[Khanivore]

 

[hnn]

PAF should have finished off and deployed the FAAZ, even if it was not "good enough" to take down a Rafale etc.

We are entering the era of the mass deployment of drones, and PAF needs a cost effective missile to be able to take them down where the technical demands are not as great as those for a fighter jet.

A mistake IMHO to not develop it as a homegrown product.

I think the sUAV/MALE/HALE threat that India poses to us is largely contained via our IADS and doctrine of prioritizing soft-kill. The EW/Cyber/Jamming are effective for sUAV, Truck Mounted Radar Decoys for Harpy/Harop loitering kind, and HIMAD/Fighter Interceptors for MALE/HALE such as MQ-9.

The capability gap lies in our ADS against BrahMos and other stand-off low flying weapons system. We don't have an ADS specifically designed to counter such vectors, especially the super sonic kind. IRIS is arguably the best available counter-system but sits behind an ecosystem integration/financial/political firewall for us. The alternatives available such as NASAM sits behind the same firewall, and our other defence partners i.e. China/Turkey don't have an equally capable system.

I am not sure if FAAZ has completely died down but if it's on a hiatus then it makes sense because FAAZ wouldn't have filled the capability gap as it would have been a poor choice to employ against CMs. As I remember, FAAZ was being developed as operational reserves to US/China supplied A2A missiles (should the conflict b/w Pakistan-India gets prolonged) and never as SAM, even the surface launch kind wouldn't have filled any capability gap.

Given our IADS doctrine and the doctrine behind CM such as BrahMos, the two best phases to defend against it would be either at launch (using cyber attack to disrupt the launch) or in it's terminal seeker phase (for that we need a system like IRIS). The good part is our coverage to detect these launches, for land based launch, is operationally sufficient (and can be improved still with more radar coverage) and given our financial/political constraints, I'm optimistic that PAF might already be working on the cyber counter at launch (but that would only work for land based launches) and I largely don't see a prime terminal phase kinetic defense available against the air launched kind (and even those land launched which make past outer IADS layer) for the foreseeable future (more HQ-7/16 and FN-2000s can provide some cover but it's not ideal).

 

[Gripen9]

I think Oscar and other members have rightly stated that abandoning F-16s entirely is just a stupid decision and waste of money in the long term as opposed to upfront capital and revenue expenditures expected to be incurred on new systems with the upgrade V Kits.


Yes, Pakistan has demonstrated that it is not dependent on USA anymore for front line attack jets........but here is the question......What does the USA gain by NOT allowing these V upgrades to Pakistan?

They don't gain anything. In fact, they lose more in a partner who you never know, might be needed in the regional context. That price alone is worth a few billion USD worth of upgrades and crying from the bhindians.

It might be Iran, it might be Afghanistan again or central Asia.....Pakistan is a strong regional partner here.

I think the US is not opposed to sell Pak any mid line hardware. They will approve blk70 sales as well. I may hazard a guess even the newer F15s if Pakistan requested them. The sticking point is payment. Unkil wants payment is $$$. Pakistan wants to fund it via frozen CSF funds which it feels it is owed (~$12B). We don't want to spend our limited cash on something that may potentially get embargoed in the future depending on who is incharge of the WH.
Same was the case with the zulu deal. When Pak balked at paying for the helos with cash and went for the Turkish ATAK, Unkil refused export license on the engines because it wanted Pakistan to spend the billion dollars on its product and not Turkish. Therefore US will not authorize any Turkish solution that competes with their MIC offering. Under trump it is purely economics (I think).

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Sorry, you are missing the big picture here now, US does not just see Pakistan through the prism of India or Afghanistan anymore, if you have not realised that over last 6 months you simply have not been keeping up.

GCC, Gaza, rare minerals are all at play now. Trump is transactional and countries that make a deal will move ahead.

You have a good point here. The USA is becoming like China: stop warring, start trading. And, she's going back to the Monrore Doctrine, so no babysitting service is available for anynone including Europe. Hence, a vacuum is being generated in Pakistan's vicinity. The USA will applause the winning "Galdiator"......

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

I think the US is not opposed to sell Pak any mid line hardware. They will approve blk70 sales as well. I may hazard a guess even the newer F15s if Pakistan requested them. The sticking point is payment. Unkil wants payment is $$$. Pakistan wants to fund it via frozen CSF funds which it feels it is owed (~$12B). We don't want to spend our limited cash on something that may potentially get embargoed in the future depending on who is incharge of the WH.
Same was the case with the zulu deal. When Pak balked at paying for the helos with cash and went for the Turkish ATAK, Unkil refused export license on the engines because it wanted Pakistan to spend the billion dollars on its product and not Turkish. Therefore US will not authorize any Turkish solution that competes with their MIC offering. Under trump it is purely economics (I think).

Strangely, Pakistan can arrange funds for all of her defense procurement or production programs, but not a cent for the US equipment! Why?

Reminds me of an anecdote regarding Mark Twain. One of his friends found that his study was filled with books, but had no racks! So, he asked Mark why it was like this. Mark's answer: I can't get the racks the way I collect the books.....

 

[puttputt]

PAF should have finished off and deployed the FAAZ, even if it was not "good enough" to take down a Rafale etc.

We are entering the era of the mass deployment of drones, and PAF needs a cost effective missile to be able to take them down where the technical demands are not as great as those for a fighter jet.

A mistake IMHO to not develop it as a homegrown product.

I think the sUAV/MALE/HALE threat that India poses to us is largely contained via our IADS and doctrine of prioritizing soft-kill. The EW/Cyber/Jamming are effective for sUAV, Truck Mounted Radar Decoys for Harpy/Harop loitering kind, and HIMAD/Fighter Interceptors for MALE/HALE such as MQ-9.

The capability gap lies in our ADS against BrahMos and other stand-off low flying weapons system. We don't have an ADS specifically designed to counter such vectors, especially the super sonic kind. IRIS is arguably the best available counter-system but sits behind an ecosystem integration/financial/political firewall for us. The alternatives available such as NASAM sits behind the same firewall, and our other defence partners i.e. China/Turkey don't have an equally capable system.

I am not sure if FAAZ has completely died down but if it's on a hiatus then it makes sense because FAAZ wouldn't have filled the capability gap as it would have been a poor choice to employ against CMs. As I remember, FAAZ was being developed as operational reserves to US/China supplied A2A missiles (should the conflict b/w Pakistan-India gets prolonged) and never as SAM, even the surface launch kind wouldn't have filled any capability gap.

Given our IADS doctrine and the doctrine behind CM such as BrahMos, the two best phases to defend against it would be either at launch (using cyber attack to disrupt the launch) or in it's terminal seeker phase (for that we need a system like IRIS). The good part is our coverage to detect these launches, for land based launch, is operationally sufficient (and can be improved still with more radar coverage) and given our financial/political constraints, I'm optimistic that PAF might already be working on the cyber counter at launch (but that would only work for land based launches) and I largely don't see a prime terminal phase kinetic defense available against the air launched kind (and even those land launched which make past outer IADS layer) for the foreseeable future (more HQ-7/16 and FN-2000s can provide some cover but it's not ideal).

If we're talking about purely a 'beater' SAM that we can deploy in huge numbers at a low cost, then I think we should try license manufacturing the SD-10 (be it as "FAAZ" or whatever) or, potentially, finding whatever know-how, facilities, etc, are left from the Aspide or LY-60. The latter is a much older missile, sure, but I think with some more development, we can bring it up to an acceptable standard for a low-tier SAM via a new IIR and/or ARH seeker. We'll still need a HQ-9C or SIPER-type system eventually, however, doesn't hurt to have an upgraded Aspide or FAAZ or whatever filling out the low-end alongside AAGs and DEWs.

 

[Starlord]

Noticed, no one is talking about how long it will take to upgrade all the F-16's using the package USA approve? will it be like 2030's ? I guess those upgrades will be done in small numbers at a time to keep certain numbers of F-16's in air (Just in case).

 

[hnn]

If we're talking about purely a 'beater' SAM that we can deploy in huge numbers at a low cost, then I think we should try license manufacturing the SD-10 (be it as "FAAZ" or whatever) or, potentially, finding whatever know-how, facilities, etc, are left from the Aspide or LY-60. The latter is a much older missile, sure, but I think with some more development, we can bring it up to an acceptable standard for a low-tier SAM via a new IIR and/or ARH seeker. We'll still need a HQ-9C or SIPER-type system eventually, however, doesn't hurt to have an upgraded Aspide or FAAZ or whatever filling out the low-end alongside AAGs and DEWs.

I'm not sure what specific threat you're proposing the cheap, mass produced missile be employed against, whether drones, aircraft, or cruise missiles. The flight profiles and reaction-time mechanics for each of those are quite different than the other. Besides, AD, esp IADS is doctrine first and platforms built around the doctrine than the other way around. Can you explain more about what role you're suggesting for the licensed mass produced SD-10 (or it's derivative) so I don't misunderstand?

 

[rafale]

Noticed, no one is talking about how long it will take to upgrade all the F-16's using the package USA approve? will it be like 2030's ? I guess those upgrades will be done in small numbers at a time to keep certain numbers of F-16's in air (Just in case).

More important is whether the current US administration will continue after 2028 as well......you don't want your F-16s in the process of upgrading or new builds manufacturing to be sanctioned or cancelled by USA if a new Democratic Pro Indian lobby comes in.

I am sure PAF would want to purchase the kits upfront and ask LM to outsource actual upgrades to a third party, i.e. TAI or Poland (which is doing the upgrade inhouse). Only flight testing and certification will be done in USA.

So yea, assuming PAF goes ahead with V kits upgrade by next year, it will take 3-4 years to fully complete.

 

[rafale]

I think the US is not opposed to sell Pak any mid line hardware. They will approve blk70 sales as well. I may hazard a guess even the newer F15s if Pakistan requested them. The sticking point is payment. Unkil wants payment is $$$. Pakistan wants to fund it via frozen CSF funds which it feels it is owed (~$12B). We don't want to spend our limited cash on something that may potentially get embargoed in the future depending on who is incharge of the WH.
Same was the case with the zulu deal. When Pak balked at paying for the helos with cash and went for the Turkish ATAK, Unkil refused export license on the engines because it wanted Pakistan to spend the billion dollars on its product and not Turkish. Therefore US will not authorize any Turkish solution that competes with their MIC offering. Under trump it is purely economics (I think).

Considering almost a billion USD has already been earmarked for updates and sustainment of F-16s by Pakistan, PAF seems to have figured out where and how to get hard cash from and they will proceed with paying in Hard cash or getting US EXIMP financing. So 18 BLK52s will definitely be upgraded. New build ones, I am not too sure.

Recently, after a very long time, US EXIMP bank agreed to finance a large part of Reko Diq Copper Mine project. As i had mentioned this earlier, this is a massive move. It is entirely possible this was to ensure further financing inroads by US EXIMP bank(s) with help of SIFC of course since the banks do a lot of risk and due diligence before agreeing to finance in markets like Pakistan. They would have no issue financing F-16s as well. That way Pakistan can make up payments over a decade and not have to shell out hard cash upfront.

I believe the last time any major US EXIMP bank financing was done for Pakistan was during Musharraf time when PIA bought B777s instead of the much better optioned A330 from Europe.