Iran Economy

[Khorasan Black Flags]

دسته گل اصلاحات چی‌ها




افتضاح درآمد نفتی با سقوط ۵۶ درصدی در لایحه بودجه ۱۴۰۵
پاک‌نژاد ضعیف‌ترین وزیر نفت جمهوری اسلامی!

فرهیختگان نوشت: در لایحه بودجه ۱۴۰۵، درآمد نفتی معادل ۲۶۳ هزار میلیارد تومان پیش‌بینی شده که از نظر ریالی کمترین مقدار درآمد نفتی از سال ۱۳۹۹ تاکنون بوده.

همچنین این درآمد نفتی، نسبت به رقم ۶۰۴ همت در سال ۱۴۰۴ کاهش بیش از ۵۶ درصدی داشته است.

اما به لحاظ سهم از منابع بودجه عمومی نیز در سال آینده سهم نفت فقط ۵ درصد است که نسبت به رقم ۱۲.۲ درصدی سال جاری و ۲۱ درصدی سال ۱۴۰۳ و ۲۹ درصدی سال ۱۴۰۲ و ۳۷ درصدی سال ۱۴۰۱ کاهش آن بسیار چشمگیر بوده.

سهم نفت از بودجه عمومی در سال آینده، کمترین مقدار در طول تاریخ نفت ایران، حداقل پس از پیروزی انقلاب اسلامی است (خداقوت به آقای محسن پاک‌نژاد).

#اقتصاد
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پایگاه خبری#آتـش‌نـیـوز

ایتا - پیوستن به "🇮🇷آتش‌نیوز "

پیام رسان ایرانی ایتا Eitaa

eitaa.com

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Country/Region	2023: Interest / Inflation (%)	2023 Real Indicator	2024: Interest / Inflation (%)	2024 Real Indicator	2025: Interest / Inflation (%)	2025 Real Indicator
Iran	23 / 45	1.96	23 / 40	1.74	23 / ~45	1.96
Pakistan	22 / 29	1.32	15 / 12	0.80	10.5 / 6	0.57
Turkey	42.5 / 65	1.53	50 / 60	1.20	38 / 31	0.82
Japan	-0.1 / 3.3	-33	0.5 / 2.5	5.0	0.75 / 2.9	3.87
China	3.45 / -0.3	-0.09	3.1 / 0.2	0.06	3.0 / 0.7	0.23
Norway	4.5 / 5.5	1.22	4.5 / 4.0	0.89	4.0 / 3.0	0.75
Germany	4.5 / 5.9	1.31	3.0 / 2.5	0.83	2.0 / 2.3	1.15
Italy	4.5 / 5.7	1.27	3.0 / 1.8	0.60	2.0 / 1.1	0.55
France	4.5 / 5.6	1.24	3.0 / 2.2	0.73	2.0 / 0.9	0.45
Indonesia	6.0 / 3.7	0.62	6.0 / 3.0	0.50	4.75 / 2.7	0.57
India	6.5 / 5.7	0.88	6.5 / 4.9	0.75	5.25 / 2.0	0.38
Russia	7.5 / 7.4	0.99	21 / 9.0	0.43	16 / 6.0	0.38
U.S.	5.375 / 4.1	0.76	4.5 / 3.0	0.67	3.75 / 2.7	0.72
EU (Eurozone)	4.5 / 5.4	1.20	3.0 / 2.5	0.83	2.0 / 2.1	1.05

For religious reasons I think it's not possible to be in red zone for Islamic/Iran countries (concept of Reba ربا). For example Russia had similar position like us but they are not bound by that concept.but why is that our Real Indicator is not close to 1 or 1.1 ?

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

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As the role and impact of mainstream media are reducing, smaller and privately owned media outlets are gaining more attention, which is a very good thing. Donya-ye Eqtesad (or EcoIran) was one of the mainstream ones in Iran, whose impact was later challenged by rising websites like Fars News or Tasnim News. Nowadays, YouTube and Instagram channels are taking market share from all of them, which is much better for the future.

Their recent debate on EcoIran about the issue of energy/fuel shows their old-world mentality of classic media. If we look at their panel selection and the diversity of ideas, it reveals that mentality.

If they are challenging the current issues in Iran, they should definitely include at least one person who supports the current system. And if they want to criticize communist or socialist views on these ideas, they should bring an unapologetic communist or socialist to challenge their takes.
For the past decade, at least 50% of the Majlis (Parliament) has consisted of members from conservative/religious factions, so it makes perfect sense that they should have a seat on your panel too! (I understand...!) But they are the reality of current Iran: they have a voice, they have votes, and at the end of the day, you need to bring them (or some of them) on board to push your ideas forward

The perfect order for a panel would be something like this: two people from your own base with similar ideas (like those at Donya-ye Eqtesad), one Islamist/conservative, one communist/socialist, and one from the crony capitalism side. That would make for much better panel choices.

Someone like Mr Ziba Kalam might have many flaws but one thing is certain that he sits infront of all sorts of people with different ideas. Certain institutions that carry flags of liberalism should learn from traits of individuals like Mr Ziba Kalam (and not learn his other traits ) I think it can be said about popular Yutube channels like Jedaal of Mr Ali Zade and Tahririeh of Mr Bahrami too.

 

[Eşbah]

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His statements aren't helpful at all.

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

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His statements aren't helpful at all.

He's leaking these kinds of statements once a while, on purpose.. very suspicious. I wont be surprised if he's connected to some other countries or powers (internal or external)

 

[OldTwilight]

here we go again

 

[shapurzolaktaf]

here we go again

Grandfathers government/Turtle-ollahs are 30 years talking about removing energy subsidies and extra zeros etc. Seems that not only nukes and hijab and ICBMs are haram, but also speed and action and competence are unwritten haram acts.

If they cant manage then hand over power to competent figures, the youth, nationalists, technocrats, instead of old lazy corrupt rats who are forced on us by guardian/traitors council.

 

[Persian Gulf]

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recycling of same old failed figures in every aspect of IRI leadership

 

[Persian Gulf]

Grandfathers government/Turtle-ollahs are 30 years talking about removing energy subsidies and extra zeros etc. Seems that not only nukes and hijab and ICBMs are haram, but also speed and action and competence are unwritten haram acts.

If they cant manage then hand over power to competent figures, the youth, nationalists, technocrats, instead of old lazy corrupt rats who are forced on us by guardian/traitors council.

they are incomprehensibly slow to prepare for or respond in every scenario (even with months of preparation time)

killing of Soleimani - 5 days to respond, killed no one
snapback of UNSC sanctions - literally had years to prepare response, threatened to develop nukes and quit NPT, did nothing
Israel's attacks - threatened to raze Haifa to ground with 10,000 missiles, took 17 hours of non-stop Israeli attacks to fire the first missiles

they only know how to bark a lot (if Isreal attacks, their plans won't have runways to land on by the time they return - in reality, Israel attacked non-stop for 17 hours before IRI fired one missile back) but now everyone sees through their empty threats

 

[Persian Gulf]

the Government's response was that the depreciation in the rial is caused by psychological concern, so people should simply stop worrying and then it will get better

these retards are beyond parody. it seems they have no more plans and have already given up

we need mass overhaul of the economy and huge anti-corruption purge of high ranking officials, including mass seizures of big mansions owned by corrupt officials

Pezeshkian could easily announce new standalone anti-corruption body that has full investigative powers and answers only to Khamenei and publishes its findings publicly. but instead he tells people to figure out the problems themselves because he has no more ideas or energy. Iran has had some awful leaders but he has to be top of the list

 

[Kyussis]

the Government's response was that the depreciation in the rial is caused by psychological concern, so people should simply stop worrying and then it will get better

these retards are beyond parody. it seems they have no more plans and have already given up

we need mass overhaul of the economy and huge anti-corruption purge of high ranking officials, including mass seizures of big mansions owned by corrupt officials

Pezeshkian could easily announce new standalone anti-corruption body that has full investigative powers and answers only to Khamenei and publishes its findings publicly. but instead he tells people to figure out the problems themselves because he has no more ideas or energy. Iran has had some awful leaders but he has to be top of the list

Pezeshkian came on the scene declaring he had no plans and yet the majority voted him into office. He is delivering what he had publicly promised!

 

[Persian Gulf]

Pezeshkian came on the scene declaring he had no plans and yet the majority voted him into office. He is delivering what he had publicly promised!

reformists plan is always to promise more freedoms and try to negotiate with the west

the other power factions block the freedoms and the US was not willing to negotiate on terms acceptable to any faction in Iran

Israel was determined to ruin his presidency by assassinating Haniyeh on his inauguration. unfortunately they succeeded

 

[Mero]

6 years ago (or about) on the old site, I suggested Iran back their currency with a monetary metal Iran is rich in - copper. Make copper coins, have copper back their paper currency.

Gives immediate price stability. Those that demand too much copper. Make Steel coins and dump them on their property to shame them for trying to collapse Iran's currency.

IIRC, Iran produces billions worth of copper a year, mint those into coin, back paper with copper on demand. Inflation solved.

 

[Persian Gulf]

6 years ago (or about) on the old site, I suggested Iran back their currency with a monetary metal Iran is rich in - copper. Make copper coins, have copper back their paper currency.

Gives immediate price stability. Those that demand too much copper. Make Steel coins and dump them on their property to shame them for trying to collapse Iran's currency.

IIRC, Iran produces billions worth of copper a year, mint those into coin, back paper with copper on demand. Inflation solved.

and what happens to financial policy when price of copper radically falls due to external pressures ?

 

[Mero]

1 pound of copper is worth about 5 euros/dollars.

Copper is a highly demanded and not enough supply.

You don’t have to look very hard to find someone predicting a resource shortage, whether its’ peak oil or more recent concerns of a lithium shortage. The newest element of concern is copper, with predictions of severe supply shortfalls ahead. So what does the future really hold for the red metal?

It is estimated that only 12% of the world’s copper has been mined. Chile, by far the world’s largest producer with 27% of global output, as reserves to last at least another century at current rates. Copper also boasts the highest recycling rate of any base metal. The problem isn’t running out of copper, it’s producing it fast enough.

Have we Reached Peak Copper? | Geology for Investors

www.geologyforinvestors.com

If copper were to go to 2-3 dollars per pound, Iran would only experience 100% inflation and it provides a floor on the value of the Iranian currency.

1 troy ounce coin = basic unit of new Iranian rial = ~40 euro/us cents.
lowest banknote is one basic unit and bank notes of larger value.

1/2 of a troy ounce copper coin = 20 euro cents.
1/10 of a troy ounce copper coin = about 4 euro cents.

Banknotes redeemable in copper on demand.

Extremely large withdrawals that are similar to wanting to cause a bankrun and harm the IRI, you would have a dump truck of steel coins, legal tender and equal to the value of the money demanded, to pay the demanded metal in steel currency.

I was suggesting this when copper was 3 dollars a pound. It is around 5.

Copper really can't go lower than 1 federal reserve fiat dollar, so you have a floor of around 1-3 dollars in extreme cases.

The minimum cost of producing a pound of copper can vary greatly depending on several factors such as the location of the mine, the method of extraction, and the current market conditions.

According to a report by the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the average cost of producing a pound of copper in 2020 was around $2.50. However, this cost can range from as low as $1.50 to as high as $5.00 or more per pound, depending on the specific operation.

Here are some approximate costs associated with producing a pound of copper:

• Underground mining: $2.50 - $4.00 per pound
• Open-pit mining: $1.50 - $3.00 per pound
• Recycling: $0.50 - $1.50 per pound

It's worth noting that these costs are estimates and can vary depending on various factors such as:

• Energy costs: The cost of energy can significantly impact the production cost of copper.
• Labor costs: Labor costs can vary depending on the location and the specific operation.
• Equipment and maintenance costs: The cost of equipment and maintenance can also impact the production cost of copper.
• Environmental and regulatory costs: The cost of complying with environmental and regulatory requirements can also add to the production cost of copper.

Sources:

• United States Geological Survey (USGS). (2020). Copper.
• International Copper Study Group. (2020). Copper Production Costs.
• Bloomberg. (2022). Copper Price.