Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

Next, SA cost is 2$ per barrel....Venezuela is 10 dollars per barrel.
Still in case of cluster fk, China has her pipes connected to Russia and U.S has Canada and now Venezuela. China buys gas from Russia too they have their amazing rail which uses (i think) 1/10 of energy compared to fuel of cars and U.S has amazing roads and big beautiful cars too.at the end i think chain of events will squeeze smaller countries and some EU members.

at $100-150 per barrel it may be profitable for many people.
they need ~$60 or more to activate some of U.S shale reserves.(at 2020 it was like that)
 
I would like to see your source on 10/barrel. Most cite blending and upgrading at $30-35 pure cost.

Then there is the government debt and balancing their budget they need oil prices they sell to be $100+ to stop hyperinflation and dire economic conditions in that country. So your assuming US takes 100% of the oil revenues and gives zero back to the country. Which doesn’t make sense.

Then there is investment needed to revive their oil production and raise their oil exports which are less than 30% capacity when Chavez was alive. Figures are $10-20B dollars of investments to add 500,000 barrels daily.

It’s gonna be very expensive and time consuming process to fix Venezuela.

Iran is getting taken care of this year not in 3 years before Trump leaves. Israel has full control of the White House.

And yes Iran mined the Persian gulf during the Iran-Iraq war then operation prey mantis happened and Iran got humiliated. That was also when it still had a modern navy supplied by America and UK from the Shah days. Today its Navy is speedboats and similar frigates it had 40 years ago now labeled “Mowj” with some upgrades.

Some F-22 and F-35 could sink all of Iran’s large ships, ship yards, and naval bases without any ability for Iran to target them back.

It wouldn’t be wise to go down that road.
Here's the citation...but it maybe outdated.
 

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they need ~$60 or more to activate some of U.S shale reserves.(at 2020 it was like that)

Here's the citation...but it maybe outdated.

You both need to stop citing 5 year old information. A lot has changed for both countries in 5 years.

1) US Shale oil no longer is breakeven at $60, it’s now at most $30-35 as the industry consolidated and the players who couldn’t survive went under during COVID.

2) Venzenula cannot pull out of the ground anywhere remotely close to Saudi oil or even $10 which might be closer to Iranian oil. A simple google search will show you where heavy sour crude and super heavy comes from and how it sludges makes extraction more difficult.

So let’s say 30-35, remember that’s just the cost. Venezuela needs oil prices closer to $125 to balance its budget. Taking it out of the ground for $35 to flip it for $50 (have to take into account discounts) won’t do anything to help the economic situation. Plus a portion of whatever has to go to US oil Companies for their share of spending 75-100B+ to revitalize and rebuild the Venezuela oil industry.

All in All — it’s a decade long project with fruition not paying out for a couple years (if that).


Iran also needs 100-200B dollars of foreign investment to rebuild its oil industry and natural gas industry. Not to mention it still has zero LNG production.
 
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Iranian police identify 40 suspects over online disinformation linked to recent unrest
——
Tehran’s Greater Police Command announced the identification of 40 individuals accused of spreading false and targeted news online by using AI tools and recycled footage from past unrest to mislead the public, particularly on Instagram. Authorities said the suspects were identified through technical and intelligence operations, and that the misleading content was removed in coordination with judicial bodies, according to Mehr News Agency.

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US told Hezbollah to stay out of the coming Iran War. Source is naharnet. Dont know how credible they are.

«
President Joseph Aoun’s latest reassurance that “specter of war has become distant” was based on “information received by the Lebanese official authorities from high-ranking international parties and Western embassies,” a prominent Lebanese official said.

“During their Dec. 29 meeting in Florida, U.S. President Donald Trump and the enemy’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed on striking Iran if it does not engage in a settlement according to the U.S. conditions,” the official told al-Akhbar newspaper.

Trump and Netanyahu “also agreed on launching the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and on keeping Lebanon out of any strike targeted against Iran during this period,” the official said.»

https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en...hezbollah-out-of-any-iran-war-to-avoid-strike
 
You both need to stop citing 5 year old information. A lot has changed for both countries in 5 years.

1) US Shale oil no longer is breakeven at $60, it’s now at most $30-35 as the industry consolidated and the players who couldn’t survive went under during COVID.

2) Venzenula cannot pull out of the ground anywhere remotely close to Saudi oil or even $10 which might be closer to Iranian oil. A simple google search will show you where heavy sour crude and super heavy comes from and how it sludges makes extraction more difficult.

So let’s say 30-35, remember that’s just the cost. Venezuela needs oil prices closer to $125 to balance its budget. Taking it out of the ground for $35 to flip it for $50 (have to take into account discounts) won’t do anything to help the economic situation. Plus a portion of whatever has to go to US oil Companies for their share of spending 75-100B+ to revitalize and rebuild the Venezuela oil industry.

All in All — it’s a decade long project with fruition not paying out for a couple years (if that).


Iran also needs 100-200B dollars of foreign investment to rebuild its oil industry and natural gas industry. Not to mention it still has zero LNG production.
You're numbers are off as well....there is no such producer (except Canadian and N. Dakotan shale) that has breakeven prices at 60 dollars......none!
Shale is not the same as pulling oil out of the ground...it's basically washing out the oil from rock...very labor intensive.
I know because I used to trade oil futures.
 
Khamenei will be sentenced to electric chair if he is captured by the US
 
You're numbers are off as well....there is no such producer (except Canadian and N. Dakotan shale) that has breakeven prices at 60 dollars......none!
Shale is not the same as pulling oil out of the ground...it's basically washing out the oil from rock...very labor intensive.
I know because I used to trade oil futures.


“Never underestimate the American engineer,” Diamondback Chief Executive Officer Kaes Van’t Hof said in a letter to shareholders Monday.

“We’re going to find a way to make more money despite macro headwinds,” he said on a call with analysts.

Faster drilling and improved pumping methods reduced Diamondback’s break-even oil price to about $37 a barrel, 8% lower than two years ago. Coterra raised the potential of growing 5% next year to about 168,000 barrels a day while spending “modestly” less. The savings will come in part from installing microgrids in West Texas to reduce power costs, according to the company’s output guidance.”

In today’s oversupplied oil market, the increases from the U.S. could have global consequences. Macquarie Group Ltd., one of the few commodity trading firms to correctly predict 2023’s shale growth, says prices will have to fall into the low $50-a-barrel range before the industry pulls back.



The industry is a lot more resilient today than 5 years ago. Now that doesn’t mean there aren’t higher cost producers still among the mix. Obviously, the bigger oil companies can weather the storm better at these prices.
 
Khamenei will be sentenced to electric chair if he is captured by the US

even I , simple iranian is telling "we should have nukes " when it come to direct conflict with the west , but the coward put us on chainsaw which we neither could abandon the nuclear program and focus on our domestic matters neither we could build the nuke and have military detterance ...

he was afraid to change status quo which clearly was and is against us ....

ما هم پیاز رو خوردیم ، هم شلاق رو هم در نهایت پول رو دادیم



The Story of "He Ate the Onions, Got Whipped, and Paid the Money"

One day, a traveler got into an argument with a hardworking farmer over onions and onion farming. The traveler called the onion crop worthless, while the farmer praised its benefits. In the end, the traveler's words indirectly belittled the farmer’s livelihood.

People saw them quarreling and took them to court for a verdict.

After hearing both sides, the judge ruled in favor of the farmer and told the traveler, “You have harmed this farmer’s crop during this dispute. Now you must compensate him with money to settle the matter.”

The traveler, who was stingy by nature, refused. The judge said, “In that case, either you receive a whipping, or the greatest torment for you will be eating a whole sack of onions — so you won’t start fights over such trivial matters again. The choice of punishment is yours. Will you pay the money, eat the onions, or take the lashes?”

The traveler thought for a moment and decided he didn’t want to pay. Whipping was painful, too. So he agreed to eat the onions.

The judge ordered a sack of onions to be brought. The convicted man hadn’t even finished two or three onions before he felt sick and said, “Whip me instead. I’d rather take the lashes than eat these onions.”

The judge ordered the whip and the flogging punishment to be prepared. Two men began to whip the soles of his feet. Before even ten strikes had landed, he cried out, “Stop, stop! I’ll pay the money. I’ll pay!”

The stingy traveler was forced to pay a sum to the farmer and obtain his forgiveness.

Those watching laughed at his plight and said, “Had he not been so stingy, this wouldn’t have happened. He could have simply paid the fine — but instead, he ate the onions, got whipped, and still ended up paying.”

From that day on, when someone is overly greedy or, in hopes of gaining more, accepts seemingly small losses but ultimately fails to get what they wanted, people say:

“He ate the onions, got whipped, and paid the money too.”
 

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