Trade deficit widens to $19b

[Pakistanithinktank]

There was indeed a large trade gap in the PMLN period (2013-18) but much of it was machinery imports for the CPEC projects, and as such cannot be faulted. Problem was what happened after 2018, both internally and globally

Regards

@Pakistan Space Agency @Owaiz

3 years of PTI government during Covid destroyed entire Pakistani export.

 

[Pakistani Dragon]

My bad, I meant to say BoP in my original post.

And your question re: 2025 was answered above by others -- i.e., we have a poorer house with depressed spending and imports.

If you want Current Account to be positive, then we have to live within our means.

I think we all agree with this.

If we adopt this approach, then imports will be restricted every single time which will make things more expensive for the populous.

In 2024-2025, Current Account was in surplus. Last time this had happened was during the financial year 2010-2011, and the people didn't like it either back then.

Pakistan being a very large, poor and an underdeveloped country, it has to navigate between a double deficit (current account and trade) or a single deficit (trade) year-after-year. It leaves little room for progress.

Pakistan needs hundreds of billions of dollars coming in from abroad annually to become a developed nation. This isn't happening.

In other words, your daku-babu regime didn't solve the economic problem, but rather, the positive CAD of this year was a result of broader economic mismanagement.

What on earth is a "positive CAD"?

Also, I am not a fan of IK/PTI cult. It's no different in nature than the PPP and BB cult. However, your daku-babu horde isn't the solution we need -- nor want -- either.

That sounded like like, I'm not a fan of PTI cult but I want PTI cult to rule Pakistan. Love from Canada."

Just for your information, I am member of the Awam Pakistan political party.

 

[Pakistani Dragon]

I wonder what's causing this sharp decline in exports
werent energy and oil prices going down afaik? I think it has to do with import restrictions needed for exports
tricky situation

Restrictions on imports have been removed/reduced as the current account has drastically improved to a positive level (after 14 years). Mainly due to try the result of higher receipt of remittances.

It means Pakistan can afford the trade deficit at the moment.

 

[Owaiz]

There was indeed a large trade gap in the PMLN period (2013-18) but much of it was machinery imports for the CPEC projects, and as such cannot be faulted. Problem was what happened after 2018, both internally and globally

Regards

@Pakistan Space Agency @Owaiz

To give credit where it is due, the situation under the last Patwari regime under Vadde Mian, as bad as it was, was still better than the one now under the puppet regime for which Nikka is the showpiece.

 

[Owaiz]

3 years of PTI government during Covid destroyed entire Pakistani export.

Did you even read that before you posted it ? Covid upended the entire global supply chain and trade system. You can't seriously claim that PTI was responsible for a black swan force majeure event.

 

[Jango007]

A brief on the projects and initiatives of PTI Government under the leadership of Prime Minister Imran Khan.

• The govt inherited the current account deficit of $20 billion which has been reduced to $3 billion. The borrowing from the State Bank stood at PKR 6 trillion when PTI came to power, but it has been brought down to ZERO.
• Tax collection went up by 17% & non-tax revenue by 33% YoY before #COVID__19. FDI rose to $2.4 billion from $1 billion.
• IT exports grew by 26%
• FBR achieving its target and all inquiry commission reports made public are developments that tip the scale in the positives.
• PKR 50 billion has been kept for subsidy for agriculture.
• Our remittances (by 3%) & exports are growing (highest on a monthly basis in the last 10 yrs) with DG Khan Cement securing export orders from the Philippines.
• Pakistan has returned PKR 5,000 billion of its past debt.
• To revive the industry, PM ImranKhan is focusing on the expansion of the industrial sector. For this, duty on thousands of raw materials has been abolished. He announced a big incentive package that includes a subsidy of PKR 30 billion for the Naya Pakistan Housing Project. This will enable people to build their dream homes at an affordable cost. PM
  Imran Khan has assured that the govt has not cut the Annual Development Program but reduced its non-development expenditure. Which again, comes off as a decision of an empathetic leader.
• The foreign policy played a major role in positioning Pakistan where it is on the map today. It’s an undisputed fact that our strategic alliances are far better and stronger than in the last many decades. But, this came at the cost of some difficult decisions...
• Packages offered by allies to be better positioned in front of the IMF was not well received at first. But, it has proven to be prudent. The important thing to note here is that Pakistan avoided a near bankruptcy because of these economic reforms.
• PM Imran Khan & the diplomacy of Shah Mehmood Qureshi has won on the international front, gaining economic-political benefits for Pakistan. Today we have cordial relations with the US, where we'll not participate in any war but will always be ready to facilitate any peace talks.
• We've been interacting with China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Malaysia, Iran and also Russia.
  The PM visited China thrice in the last year with a hope to increase Chinese investment to Pakistan & to reinvigorate the US$60 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor.
• The Qatar-Pakistan relations saw an agreement in the fields of trade, investment, tourism & financial intelligence. Qatar also offered a $3 B package which has brought the total financial support to Pakistan by four friendly countries to nearly $16 B in 2019.
• When it comes to helping us out, China has given $4.6 billion in shape of deposits and commercial loans. Saudi Arabia provided $3 billion cash deposit and $3.2 billion oil facility on deferred payments. The United Arab Emirates also provided $2 billion cash deposit.
• Turkey took a strong stance with Pakistan on #Kashmir. The friendly visits b/w the countries placed a strong emphasis on forming a strong economic relationship and combating Islamophobia, advancing shared goals of regional peace, security and stability.
• To juxtapose, Pakistani prisoners were released from the middle-east on the special request of PM Imran Khan near the start of his term. And today, Kuwait agreed to give jobs to Pakistan doctors and nurses. Despite Covid-19 our global ties are strong.
• There is no denying the powerful stance PM Imran Khan took against the Kashmir Lockdown that has been violating all Human Rights for over 10 months. His alarm in front of the UN and WEF has turned it into an international crisis calling for world leaders to unite.
• The Ehasaas program being run by Dr. Sania Nishtar is the epitome of empathy and equality that lies at the core of PM Imran Khan's vision. It is the largest, most effective and transparent safety net to be made in the history of Under he Ehasaas program, there are multiple initiatives that are comforting the underprivileged. Namely, the Panahgahs (200 sites, 1500+ meals daily), Sehat Sahulat Program (10 million provided with Insaf Cards) and a lot more along with this on complete merit.
• During the pandemic of Covid 19, Ehsaas program rolled out PKR 144 billion to 12 million families with full transparency. They aim to target 16 mil families. The prog. has been enhanced to PKR 208 billion despite the economic situation. Highly commendable.
• A historic move was the approval of the Zainab Alert, Recovery, and Response Bill. The max sentence handed will be life imprisonment with a fine of Rs 1 million while the min sentence will be 10 years. A much-needed step against the barbaric acts that have ruined generations.
• When it comes to Balochistan, the release of missing persons and the inauguration of the Zhob-Quetta road project is a start. The Voice of Baloch Missing Persons has closed down its protest camp for the first time in a decade after receiving assurances from the CM.
• Pakistan opened the Kartarpur Corridor in Nov 2019 to facilitate the pilgrimage & religious tourism of the #Sikh community residing in India. PM Imran Khan
  has ensured to keep it visa-free for pilgrims. Country list for e-visas & visa on arrival has also gone up in 2 years.
• Speaking of borders, Shehryar Afridi achieved 97% persecution rate on narcotics which was the highest in the world and has been acknowledged by the UNDOC. Overseas Pakistanis saw a support system from the local govt for the first time through National IT board's initiatives.
• The 10 Billion TreeTsunami & Clean Green Pakistan are steps in the right direction to save the planet. These projects have also employed the daily-wagers who lost their jobs during the pandemic & are spreading awareness through their volunteers, setting benchmarks all around.
• In education,
  Shafquat Mehmood finished the bias between English-Urdu medium & Religious Madrassahs & shifting to one syllabus from March 2021. Dr Murad Raas has enabled e-transfers of Punjab teachers based on merit, another first for Pakistan along with the teleschool.
• 2020 came with a lot of unpredictability and is continuing to be a global challenge with Covid-19. PM Imran Khan's smart lockdown approach (to minimize hunger & unemployment) now being applauded by the UN and WHO is a testament to his leadership - anchored in empathy.
• Pakistan responded to the pandemic with a proactive approach. NCOC under Asad Umar gathered data (including provinces), expert opinion from doctors & evaluate the world’s trends in dealing with COVID-19 to form an up to date list with ventilators, beds, PPEs etc...
• In a short span of 4 months, Pakistan has large-scale production of sanitizers & PPEs. To add to this feat, Imran Khan handed over the first batch of indigenously manufactured ventilators called "safe vent" to the NDMA; a project spearheaded by Fawad Chaudhry.
• Efforts on the frontline in setting up quarantine centres/hospital in record time are playing a crucial role in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The list is long, but to conclude - the govt's performance is constructive & progressive with a positive image being portrayed globally.
  
  When it comes to improvement, given the state of affairs PTI inherited, there's still a lot to be fixed.

 

[PakFactor]

I Expected Some Stupid BS To Come From Your Keyboard, And You Never Disappoint.$19 Billion Trade Deficit Is Only For Six Months. We're Still Halfway Into The Fiscal Year, And $19 Billion Trade Deficit.

Additionally, the Trade Deficit In 2021-22 Spiked Due To The Commodity Super cycle Induced By the Russian Invasion Of Ukraine, Which Drove up Energy Prices Worldwide. Now Oil Prices Have Fallen To Their Lowest In 5 Years, So Why The Deficit???

So, Tell Me If the Average Trade Deficit Has Always Been $33 billion, How Do You Expect This To Be the IMF's Last Program As Claimed By Your Tajurbakar Prime Minister? Your Equally Tajurbakar Planning Minister Claims To Take Exports To $60 Billion Within The Next Three Years How Do You Plan To Do That When Exports Have Fallen By 20%.

Quran Khawani

You and I will hold a Quran Khawani, invite others, and ask Allah (swt) to rain down dollars and profits from the heavens, as the Jews asked for luscious food from the heavens because what was on the ground wasn't good enough. So too the dollars on this forsaken earth aren't good enough for Pakistani's, we need dollars with gold foils, and jewels in the shape of numbers.

 

[PakFactor]

Yep. Not only that, but rising imports in and of themselves are fine, provided that your exports rise in lock-step and eventually surpass imports.

One sign of 'productive imports' is the growth of importing raw materials and factory equipment, both of which go into manufacturing, which helps reduce imports (of manufactured goods, e.g., cars, medicine, etc) and also drives up exports of said goods, hence closing the CAD.

So, you can reduce CAD through dual-import and export growth, which is a good sign, actually, because it indicates that your imports are productive.

OTOH, if your CAD crashes due to dropping imports and exports, it just means you're getting poorer.

Of course, don't expect babu-dakus like @Pakistan Space Agency to know, much less speak of, economic issues in an informed, literate way.

To flesh out what you said:

The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the dollars entering the country aren’t circulating in the economy—they’re immediately drained out through debt service. Remittances are basically acting as a life-support system for households rather than contributing to broader economic stability. They keep families afloat, but they don’t fix the underlying imbalance because the inflows never stay long enough to ease pressure on reserves or stimulate productive investment.

As a result of inadequate planning, the SBP has been forced to purchase dollars in the domestic interbank market at higher rates. The side effect is that these purchases drain the limited supply of dollars from commercial banks, further squeezing importers and tightening the squeeze on manufacturers.

As a result, we’ve reached a point where we lack the foreign‑exchange capacity to import the very capital goods needed to produce value‑added exports, nor can we import enough inputs to relieve pressure on domestic manufacturing for local consumption. It’s a dual squeeze: we can’t expand exports, and we can’t meet domestic demand. We’re getting hit from both directions.

 

[Mav3rick]

After the butchering of Palestinians and what happened in Venezuela, anybody who still thinks there was no regime change in Pakistan is an idiot. Unfortunately the people of Pakistan will once again have to suffer because of GHQ’s policies.

Most definately, the US was quivering at the flight of Pakistan under the Munafiq-e-Aaala, as under his watchful control, the economy was poised to overtake the US economy in 5 Youthian years!!

Our exports have always been a problem and so has been our imports. We are imorting Luxury Vehicles and other luxury items which we should not be doing at all. Our imports should be limited to the most critical of requirements and those items which are needed for exports but then come the IMF conditions and World Trade Rules.

My advice to all, come out of the PTI closet and enter the Pakistan closet before writing nonsense.

 

[Mav3rick]

Exports drop further; imports increase at faster pace



ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan has booked over $19 billion trade deficit during the first half of the current fiscal year as exports further plunged and imports increased faster than projections on the back of trade liberalisation, keeping the external sector stability under pressure.

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Friday that the gap between imports and exports reached $19.2 billion during the July-December period. The deficit was nearly $5 billion, or 35%, higher than the same period of last fiscal year, according to the national data collecting agency.

The half year's deficit was also equal to two-thirds of the annual official target, indicating that the central bank may have to buy more dollars from the local market than initially planned to keep the foreign exchange reserves at reasonably comfortable levels.

The trade summary showed that exports fell against all the three monitored benchmarks — month-on-month, year-on-year and half year.

PBS stated that exports fell to $15.2 billion during the first half of the current fiscal year, down 8.7% on a yearly basis. In absolute terms, exports were $1.5 billion less than the same period of last year. Six-month exports were equal to only 42% of the annual target.

The government has cut import taxes in the budget to liberalise trade and based on World Bank's estimates, the trade liberalisation should result in 14% increase in exports compared to only a 7% rise in imports. However, the results of the first half of the fiscal year have not supported the World Bank's assumptions.

Exporters are complaining about the overvalued rupee, which according to them has eroded their profitability. The national coordinator of the Special Investment Facilitation Council last month called for making the exchange rate regime more reflective of the ground realities.

The rupee-dollar parity remained around Rs280.1 to a dollar on Friday. The central bank is letting the rupee appreciate but in a gradual fashion with gain of one or two paisa every day against the greenback.

Contrary to exports, imports grew to $34.4 billion during the July-December period, a jump of $3.5 billion, or 11.3%, compared to a year ago. Imports were equal to more than half of the annual target and were putting pressure on the external sector.

However, the central bank is offsetting the higher import cost through increased inflows of remittances and major purchases of foreign currency from the local market.

PBS stated that exports further decreased to $2.3 billion in December, down $594 million, or 20.4%, from the same month of last year. It was the fifth consecutive month of decline in exports.

Imports grew 2% to over $6 billion in December. It was the sixth consecutive month when imports stayed above $5 billion and for the first time crossed $6 billion in the current fiscal year. In absolute terms, imports increased $118 million last month.

As a result, the trade deficit widened one-fourth to $3.7 billion, up $712 million. On a month-on-month basis, the trade deficit also increased 28% due to the reduction in exports and the double-digit increase in imports.

As exporters were already struggling to remain globally competitive, they faced yet another challenge at the hands of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). The tax machinery has directed its field formations to pick at least 70 exporters for scrutiny of their income tax returns.

The FBR stated that an analysis carried out at its headquarters revealed that a significant number of exporters, associations of persons and companies substantially reduced their declared taxable income for tax year 2025 after the taxation regime for export proceeds was modified from the final tax to the minimum tax, according to the FBR's instructions.

These instructions showed that all field formations were directed to closely examine the declarations of major exporters falling within their respective jurisdictions to ascertain whether there was any abnormal reduction, inconsistency or change in declaration patterns after the amendment.

However, Pakistan Retail Business Council Chairman Ziad Bashir complained to the prime minister about the FBR's action. "At a time when Pakistan's export sector is already under stress owing to some of the highest effective tax burdens, energy tariffs, interest rates and financing costs in the region, the issuance of such broad, open-ended scrutiny instructions sends a deeply troubling signal to the business community," Ziad wrote to the PM.

The FBR was forced to give a public explanation after the hue and cry made by the exporters. In a press statement issued on Thursday, the FBR said "in order to mitigate the possibility of any bonafide or other errors, the field formations were directed to pursue the returns and process them in accordance with the law, wherever any legal inconsistency is identified."

Conducting desk audits of returns and ensuring compliance with tax laws is the statutory and primary responsibility of the FBR, it added. The FBR said that to prevent any inconsistency, misuse or undue inconvenience to taxpayers, this exercise has been initiated under the supervision of the FBR headquarters.

Does this include IT based exports? Because IT based exports have been growing for the last 2-3 years and has potential to lead the export industry.

 

[PakFactor]

On PDF, every PTI Shaikh Chilli is an Economic Scientist without realising they're just regurgitating the same nonsense that the ISI brainwashed them with in the first place between October 2011 - May 2021.

Here's you Current Account figures between 2013-2025. Can you please tell us what happened to Current Account in 2025 without an emotional rant?

(I've also clearly highlighted the double digits figures so you won't have a hissy fit, brother).

Pakistan's Balance of Payment History

Financial Year​	Government(s)​	Year​	Current Account​	Surplus/Deficit​
2013-2014​	PML-N​	01​	$3.185 billion​	Deficit​
2014-2015​	PML-N​	02​	$2.801 billion​	Deficit​
2015-2016​	PML-N​	03​	$4.921 billion​	Deficit​
2016-2017​	PML-N​	04​	$12.238 billion​	Deficit​
2017-2018​	PML-N​	05​	$19.254 billion​	Deficit​
2018-2019​	PTI​	01​	$13.238 billion​	Deficit​
2019-2020​	PTI​	02​	$4.349 billion​	Deficit​
2020-2021​	PTI​	03​	$2.627 billion​	Deficit​
2021-2022​	PTI / PML-N​	04​	$17.571 billion​	Deficit​
2022-2023​	PML-N​	01​	$3.545 billion​	Deficit​
2023-2024​	PML-N / Caretaker / PML-N​	02​	$2.153 billion​	Deficit​
2024-2025​	PML-N​	03​	$1.984 billion​	Surplus​

Source: State Bank of Pakistan: Balance of Payment

The surplus was driven primarily by increased remittance inflows and strict controls on imports, particularly on non‑essential and capital-goods imports. These factors make for good headlines, but they did so by suppressing demand and limiting the economy’s capacity to grow, not by generating sustainable increases in productivity, exports, or investment.

 

[Mav3rick]

Even at 19% tarrif ? How about export to china ?

Export what? We hardly produce anything of worth. What do we produce which the world wants? We cannot even produce agricultural products effectively, we hardly have any cold storage or cold transport facilities, our cleaning and processing leaves too much to be desired, and this just goes on and on.

The Businessmen in the country want to make residential complexes rather than export oriented items. They cannot even be bothered to build factories to cater for local requirements in vehicles, machinary, electronics and other items which are all imported. Any idea how much TEA or edible oil we import, the figures are insane? the figures are insane and yet we will not expand/enhance local production to weane ourselves off import requirements.

Electricity is very expensive and this is the only genuine complaint from the industry, which can be fixed through investment in solar systems, which many businesses have lately opted for.

 

[Mav3rick]

Every journalist who speaks against establishment and status quo has been given life sentences by fake courts.

There should be a National Emergency imposed in Pakistan for the next 10 years and anyone who speaks against the establishment or the Government should be imprisoned without any formal trial. Let the damn Government and establishment do their jobs and try to dig Pakistan out of the mess which was created by Imran Khan and which his damned followers continue to create for Pakistan all over the world.

 

[Psyko70]

Hello everyone,

Our mindset needs to change. Everyone sharing achievements of their version of supreme leader savior of Pakistan. Truth is none of them are capable. Or, that we need to establish the fact that whole population, system is rotten to core in mindset terminology.

98% of population is impressed by petty projects like roads, ration programs.

Truth is I roads should be lesser in priority queue then Education and health.

Problem is the education we want is wrong. We want education like IT, fintech, doctor, teaching etc. Education we need is called morality and ethics. I am a lecturer and its a shame what our young mindset is lacking is lack of morals and ethics. Trust me skill set can be earned anytime, but moral and ethics are understood in young age. The discipline amplifies the skill set. Our youngster dont even properly know how to greet elders let alone expect this country with newer generations to make it better.

"No matter how powerful, countries cannot rule the whole world. The world is ruled by brains, by justice, by morals and by fairness."
- Abdullah of Saudi Arabia



​

 

[Mav3rick]

And COVID shock. If you listen Gohar Ejaz (very close to establishment) he gives the breakdown of the spike (that year) due to massive import of vaccines and spike in commodity prices.

Right now (as in last PMLN CAD crisis) the commodities are at low prices and there is no COVID like emergency imports. Yet we are going to run into multi-billion dollar current account deficit. Great performance!

P.S.: do you know we have imported nearly a billion dollars worth of mobile phones, and it’s just half a year!

P.P.S.: and it’s their 4th year in power! with unprecedented support from establishment!! Chaar saal baadh bhi kahaniya suna rahay hien, bahanay bana rahay hien.

Massive import of vaccine??? What does all the free vaccine have to do with anything? Almost all the vaccine was from donations, and we hardly had to spend anything out of the budgeted 150 million USD for vaccine!

As for the 2013-2018 period and CAD issue, why do you lot so conveniently forget the massive procurements and imports for CPEC during that period? How about the J-10's and all the armaments that we recently purchased and used to defeat India? What about the Billions being paid to China for all that weapons import including the 8 Submarines?

And if we have indeed imported a Billion USD worth of mobile phones for internal consumption, it is the worst thing that we could have done. Wasting precious USD on meaningless luxuries is a damn disaster and these are the things that the Government should somehow convince IMF to allow the blocking of.