Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

Immortals said:
IRGC isn’t going anywhere. They control up to 40% of the Iranian economy.

What is possible is the IRGC will reform itself as a positive player. Iran will enter a transition period like Egypt did after overthrowing the Islamic Brotherhood.

Either way it will require capitulation to the West. Iran will have to sign a non aggression pact with Israel and the U.S. and receive security guarantees from China and Russia that Iran cannot be attacked. Or something of the sorts.

Even if tommorrow the government reforms, without the sanctions coming off and foreign capital flowing back into Iran, economic conditions will remain bad.

Iran needs something north of 200B dollars to rebuild its oil and natural gas industry. Likely another 100B in mineral extraction and power plant construction.

This money will ONLY flow if Iran capitulates to the West and joins Abraham accords.
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There is enough money, it's just spent on waste and consumption, not on production, export, infrastructure, R&D. The economy needs a huge surgery. Iranians are culturally lazy and spoiled, so I'm not sure if they would accept such surgery (unlike current Zionist led Argentina).

Iran spends around $127 billion per year — a recent expert estimate of unofficial/hidden energy subsidies in Iran (fuel, electricity, gas etc).
 
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mangekyo said:
Who is going to tell the people? People need at least one leader they trust to communicate with them. Even if IRI wants to reform, no one will listen. Its too late. Expect fragmentation
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Yeah....we forget that we in this forum are not the regular Iranian Joes.....most of us are educated and lived/or living abroad...and most of us are not strict Muslims. I may be off base saying that we need a real democracy....perhaps we need something else first, before we can get the people ready for a real democracy. They may not be yet be ready for a secular government. It's hard to really know the outcome till we try, and if we try we might risk failing.
 
kastor ville said:
Yeah....we forget that we in this forum are not the regular Iranian Joes.....most of us are educated and lived/or living abroad...and most of us are not strict Muslims. I may be off base saying that we need a real democracy....perhaps we need something else first, before we can get the people ready for a real democracy. They may not be yet be ready for a secular government. It's hard to really know the outcome till we try, and if we try we might risk failing.
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Problem is most Iranian people do not want the same thing, and even those who want the same thing disagree on how to get it.
 
kastor ville said:
Yeah....we forget that we in this forum are not the regular Iranian Joes.....most of us are educated and lived/or living abroad...and most of us are not strict Muslims. I may be off base saying that we need a real democracy....perhaps we need something else first, before we can get the people ready for a real democracy. They may not be yet be ready for a secular government. It's hard to really know the outcome till we try, and if we try we might risk failing.
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We need something like the Russian model which is a multi-party "managed/guided democracy".

Western liberal democracy is not suited and and also dangerous for Iran.
 
mangekyo said:
Never going to happen. Even Reza doesn’t want to join Abraham Accords.
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Nobody cares what the Big Nose boy who dreams to be King thinks.

The price for Iran’s reintroduction into Western economy will be steep (sever ties with China/Russia and embrace Western countries).

And since China nor Russia would like to provide Iran a strategic alliance, eventually Iran will be swayed back to western orbit. Whether 6 months from now or 6 years.
 
I feel IRI has a political card up their sleeve. People forget how two faced these Mullahs can be. Around same time when IRI was threatening to destroy Israel and US, Khomeini went on to purchase Billions of USD worth weapons from US. IRGC has been coordinating military operations with US inside Afghanistan, Iraq for 25 years. IRI is a dysfunctional Islamo-Marxist system but people running the show are cunning politicians including Khamenei himself.
 
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I don't want to be that guy but......told ya!
When you learn how America operates you can make informed guesses. Sort of like Syria....same playbook.

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Emirzad said:
I feel IRI has a political card up their sleeve. People forget how two faced these Mullahs can be. Around same time when IRI was threatening to destroy Israel and US, Khomeini went on to purchase Billions of USD worth weapons from US. IRGC has been coordinating military operations with US inside Afghanistan, Iraq for 25 years. IRI is a dysfunctional Islamo-Marxist system but people running the show are cunning politicians including Khamenei himself.
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If you mean the Iran-Contra affair, the total purchase of Iran from the US was around $50 million, in exchange for which American hostages were released.
 
kastor ville said:
I don't want to be that guy but......told ya!
When you learn how America operates you can make informed guesses. Sort of like Syria....same playbook.

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Latin American countries are known for poor management and often high to extrême criminality. Venezuela wasn't an exception and it impacted their security heavily.
 
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People cheering in that situation.... very strange
 
Praying for Yellowstone Supervolcano Eruption or New Madrid quake to happen in USA so their War against Iran be cancelled. If there's anyone who needs to be punished the most then it should be Right-Wing White Americans instead of Iranian people.
 
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