Iranian Foreign & Resistance Front Strategy & Operations

[kastor ville]

Iran can’t copy Argentina. We have no access to dollars, weak oil income running on barter trade with China, sanctions on everything and subsidies replacing wages.

Raising interest rates would just crush production and shrink supply, so prices still rise. Cutting subsidies would spike food, housing and energy costs when wages are already too low. That means even more poverty and higher inflation.

Jesus Christ man....we said reforms! When you reform, you sit down and make deals with the people sanctioning you, then they lift sanctions, then you have access...then the Rial falls, so will the inflation.....such one dimensional arguments here today.

 

[mangekyo]

Jesus Christ man....we said reforms! When you reform, you sit down and make deals with the people sanctioning you, then they lift sanctions, then you have access...then the Rial falls, so will the inflation.....such one dimensional arguments here today.

No. Thats a different debate and I agree with you on this. But to be fair we did have a deal, JCPOA. Its a bit too late for a new deal now, isn’t it? We have no more leverage and can’t give up our BM program.

 

[Immortals]

By the way 200 billion dollars is not a lot of money for a country with the 3rd largest oil reserves and 2nd largest gas reserves. Only 4 conglomerates are needed to make that investment. XOM, CVX alone can probably do it. Not to mention Shell, BP, and half dozen others.

250B is just the intial amount of capital, add in the cost new airports, new airlines, new infrastructure, LNG ships and plants, and the cost goes into the trillions over the next 25 years.

It is certainly doable, but the only conglomerates with that amount of capital are in the West. So again you can see why status quo cannot change if you are cut off from the West.

If you use sanctions to dismiss effective policy, I can counter that by saying Argentina has not such a huge oil and gas reserves as Iran. So yeah, they have some advantage, but so do we.

Argentina? The country that several months ago needed a 40B credit line swap to stabilize their currency by the US? The country that is sending its beef to the U.S. via lucrative trade deal?

Not very comparable when Iran cannot even access its foreign exchange reserves in banks trapped abroad.

Even now Argentina population is suffering while inflation gets cut. It’s painful on the people the way he is doing it. The average person on the street in Iran isn’t going to understand nor wait 5-10 years for conditions to stabilize. In Argentina they do because they been destroying their country for many decades with socialist policies that they couldn’t afford.

As I said, there is no easy fix for the problems whatever route Iran takes will be tough and painful, but if Iran’s oil and trade is completely restricted and its access to international banking is as well, then it’s gonna limit any reform tremendously.

That doesn’t mean don’t do any reform, just expect it to be a long and arduous journey.

 

[Immortals]

Jesus Christ man....we said reforms! When you reform, you sit down and make deals with the people sanctioning you, then they lift sanctions, then you have access...then the Rial falls, so will the inflation.....such one dimensional arguments here today.

Reforms are internal modifications to economic law and statues to clean up inefficiencies, root out corruption, promote growth, strengthen contract law, etc.

What you are advocating is foreign policy capitulation. Iran doesn’t have any cards to play to make “deals” with the West. No Axis of Resistance groups to throw under the bus in a deal, no enrichment program, no “few weeks away” from a nuclear bomb sprint. So why should the enemy make a deal with Iran when it is imploding on its own?

That was your grand plan? Make a deal with the West to save the rial? You think no one in Iran thought of that in last 5 years?

Also Any deal will need to pass Congress and Israel which basically means Iran will have to sign non Aggression pact with Israel and likely eventually join Abraham accords. That is on top of permanently ending its enrichment program. Maybe even halt ballistic missile production for a number of years.

All of these will likely be needed before the U.S. removes sanctions.

 

[kastor ville]

Reforms are internal modifications to economic law and statues to clean up inefficiencies, root out corruption, promote growth, strengthen contract law, etc.

What you are advocating is foreign policy capitulation. Iran doesn’t have any cards to play to make “deals” with the West. No Axis of Resistance groups to throw under the bus in a deal, no enrichment program, no “few weeks away” from a nuclear bomb sprint. So why should the enemy make a deal with Iran when it is imploding on its own?

That was your grand plan? Make a deal with the West to save the rial? You think no one in Iran thought of that in last 5 years?

Also Any deal will need to pass Congress and Israel which basically means Iran will have to sign non Aggression pact with Israel and likely eventually join Abraham accords. That is on top of permanently ending its enrichment program. Maybe even halt ballistic missile production for a number of years.

All of these will likely be needed before the U.S. removes sanctions.

Not true....we still have cards to play....they have 450kg of enriched uranium. We have oil and gas, we have the strait...we have an educated, untapped work force. And we still have the missles and a motivated army. We are the prize for the west,.if they succeed weaning us away from China and Russia, it would be a massive win for them.

 

[mangekyo]

The real question is: is there any chance Israel will compromise and accept giving Iran a symbolic victory in exchange for normalization?

My answer is no. Which means there will be no deal with Trump unless Iran fully surrenders and hands over the missile program and nuclear program.

 

[kastor ville]

Also Any deal will need to pass Congress and Israel which basically means Iran will have to sign non Aggression pact with Israel and likely eventually join Abraham accords. That is on top of permanently ending its enrichment program. Maybe even halt ballistic missile production for a number of years.

All of these will likely be needed before the U.S. removes sanctions.

So, you just made my point for me......so there are things that we can call cards.

 

[kastor ville]

250B is just the intial amount of capital, add in the cost new airports, new airlines, new infrastructure, LNG ships and plants, and the cost goes into the trillions over the next 25 years.

It is certainly doable, but the only conglomerates with that amount of capital are in the West. So again you can see why status quo cannot change if you are cut off from the West.



Argentina? The country that several months ago needed a 40B credit line swap to stabilize their currency by the US? The country that is sending its beef to the U.S. via lucrative trade deal?

Not very comparable when Iran cannot even access its foreign exchange reserves in banks trapped abroad.

Even now Argentina population is suffering while inflation gets cut. It’s painful on the people the way he is doing it. The average person on the street in Iran isn’t going to understand nor wait 5-10 years for conditions to stabilize. In Argentina they do because they been destroying their country for many decades with socialist policies that they couldn’t afford.

As I said, there is no easy fix for the problems whatever route Iran takes will be tough and painful, but if Iran’s oil and trade is completely restricted and its access to international banking is as well, then it’s gonna limit any reform tremendously.

That doesn’t mean don’t do any reform, just expect it to be a long and arduous journey.

Lol...so what? Once the oil and gas flows, you can go to the IMF and borrow more than that.

 

[Immortals]

Not true....we still have cards to play....they have 450kg of enriched uranium.

Buried underneath a mountain and 6-12 months away from being turned into enrichment uranium metal for a core of a nuclear weapon. Assuming the fuel has been damaged in the bombing and Iran has secret centrifuges somewhere.

We have oil and gas,

Oil production is low and mostly goes to China. U.S. is #1 in oil production and OPEC is pumping oil at record levels. Oil prices are historically low.

Natural gas is nearly all consumed by the local population. Whatever we have goes to Iraq and some to Turkey.

Will taking hundreds of billions dollars to get energy industry revitalized like in the Shah Era.

we have the strait...

Mining the strait is a great way to get bombed into the Stone Age. I doubt the U.S. takes our threats on that seriously.

we have an educated, untapped work force.

The world is moving towards Superintelligence AI and robotics. It will take years if not decades to establish the manufacturing capability to turn Iran into something like Vietnam or South Korea.

If it was 2000 or 2010 sure maybe the work force would be an attractive feature. Not in 2026.

And we still have the missles and a motivated army.

Missiles are a weak card to force Trump to agree to a deal. The U.S. is already increasing Patriot missile production to 2,000 a year. And Trump wants to raise military budget from 1T to 1.5T to rapidly ready the military.

We are the prize for the west,.if they succeed weaning us away from China and Russia, it would be a massive win for them.

If we were so strategically important to China or Russia, why haven’t they lifted a finger to help us for the past several years?

China and Russia have already written off Iran as a country that is filled with reformists who are desperate to be back in U.S. orbit. They delay crucial weapons and systems that can have us stand up better against Israel. And they have dragged their feet with giving us membership into key organizations (SCO) and forging strong economic agreements.

They have let Libya, Syria, and Venezuela fall to the West without much of a care in the world. I don’t think Iran is as important to them as you make it seem, which is a tremendous failure on their part don’t get me wrong. The fact that Putin and Xi cannot foresee the immense value Iran has to both countries as a bulwark against Us, shows you how inept these two are at beating the U.S.

 

[Immortals]

So, you just made my point for me......so there are things that we can call cards.

Those aren’t “cards”. Bending over to the U.S. and accepting all their terms is called capitulation and surrender. Dismantling your missiles and nuclear program is called disarmament.

Ghaddafi also played that “card” decades ago. Look how prosperous Libya is now.

You are basically saying surrender to the west. Lose your nuclear program. Lose your missiles. And in 10 years probably get overthrown (again) and another puppet put into power, the Iranian Zelenskyy.

Now that might very well still happen, but it’s not some grand idea that no one thought of. The Supreme Leader has talked about it many times that this is the U.S. ultimate goal.

For now the factions in Iran are rejecting an unconditional surrender to the West. It’s gonna take a bit more than some shouting in the streets and buildings set on fire to make them jump ship.

 

[chinasun]

Iran News Today | Iran Is Fully Prepared For Both War And Negotiations, FM Araghchi Says​

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[kastor ville]

Those aren’t “cards”. Bending over to the U.S. and accepting all their terms is called capitulation and surrender. Dismantling your missiles and nuclear program is called disarmament.

Ghaddafi also played that “card” decades ago. Look how prosperous Libya is now.

You are basically saying surrender to the west. Lose your nuclear program. Lose your missiles. And in 10 years probably get overthrown (again) and another puppet put into power, the Iranian Zelenskyy.

Now that might very well still happen, but it’s not some grand idea that no one thought of. The Supreme Leader has talked about it many times that this is the U.S. ultimate goal.

For now the factions in Iran are rejecting an unconditional surrender to the West. It’s gonna take a bit more than some shouting in the streets and buildings set on fire to make them jump ship.

Didn't you just say we don't have any cards because they bombed our program?
Dude, you're a fatalist....nothing is going to change your mind. Good luck with that....don't let it consume you

 

[Arash]

Lol

Can someone confirm? If they suggest he has defected, right next to Israel is probably not the best choice.

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They are pushing quite a bit there

 

[Arash]

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So far it looks mostly like it’s just young males and even teenagers throwing rocks and burning stuff.

Should be noted that unemployment is very high among Iran’s youth (over 25%+) . So naturally they are ones first to the streets when riots break out and usually a big segment.

These should be shot in the head. Point.

 

[Arash]

Yup burning some poor person's car will bring reform. Well done!
View attachment 171002

Those doing so don't care, they follow orders from abroad, point......