Pakistan-India Conflict 2025: News Updates and Discussion

[Mighty_Dragon_Strike]

There has been this theory of Pakistan winning the skirmish in May 25 and entire “world recognising this win” theory is being sold.

It is also being claimed that Pakistan has made massive diplomatic gains due to this “so called win”.

This has been raised on some other threads too hence, I would put my points here to debunk these theories and also that Pakistan has made any game changing diplomatic gains after May 25 that can be attributed to the skirmish.

The claim that Trump is wooing Pakistan since it sees a strong nation is exaggerated. Improved diplomatic activity or selective engagement with Pakistan reflects regional stabilisation imperatives especially due to Iran and Gaza peace plans. US sees Munir’s utility in handling both these flash points. Pakistan’s geographic relevance, not battlefield dominance is the reason for this. Rest be assured that, the day this utility ceases, Munir would be sent packing home.

States engage with weak and strong actors alike when interests demand it. Diplomacy is transactional, not a scoreboard of wins and losses.

If diplomatic outreach were proof of victory, then every sanctioned or diplomatically courted state would be a “winner”, which is plainly absurd.

Any Indo-Pak war is unwinnable in absolute terms. Pakistan faces severe economic fragility, energy constraints, and dependence on external financing. India faces massive population exposure, economic disruption, and global market consequences.

This is precisely why neither side crosses certain thresholds. It is evidence that both understand the cost of miscalculation and decided to stand down on 10th May.

Narratives of “total victory” are domestic morale tools. They have been propagated by the same establishment that is trying to market JF-17 to half the third world Air Forces to create a narrative for domestic consumption. A narrative that JF-17 was so great that the whole world is dying to induct it. This is being sold as a proof. Both supporting each other. Nothing but bordering on a lie.

I do acknowledge that Pakistan punched way above its weight class for its performance on 07th May. There are many facts that show severe shortcomings on later dates and by no way a sign of a victory that is being claimed.

A genuine assessment must acknowledge that neither India nor Pakistan has won, and both would lose catastrophically if escalation ever crossed the point of control.

Trump sir, may I enter!

 

[AeronautIR]

Lol i got really lazy so just gonna post a youtube link for reference.
Initially Indians thought they shot down Paf jet in Akhnoor but we all know its SU30 MKI. I Chose to post this video because it has longer ending compared to other.
Notice the premature missile launch towards the middle of the video. 0:22~ and the missile stays air borne for good 25 seconds until it impacts the ground behind the trees.
Both R73 and R77 motor burns for less then 10 seconds. The only air to air missile from Russia that has a burn time of over 20 seconds is R37 which India may have acquired in small batch in secrecy.
Rafale crash in Bathinda did samething but the video cuts off after few seconds so that premature missile launch could be a Meteor which explains why the tail fin was found away from the aircraft wreckage.

So do yall think its a R37?

@AeronautIR

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I have my reservation about it being an air-to-air missile...
A missile will detonate but firing of motor is unlikely.

 

[Cipher212]

There has been this theory of Pakistan winning the skirmish in May 25 and entire “world recognising this win” theory is being sold.

It is also being claimed that Pakistan has made massive diplomatic gains due to this “so called win”.

This has been raised on some other threads too hence, I would put my points here to debunk these theories and also that Pakistan has made any game changing diplomatic gains after May 25 that can be attributed to the skirmish.

The claim that Trump is wooing Pakistan since it sees a strong nation is exaggerated. Improved diplomatic activity or selective engagement with Pakistan reflects regional stabilisation imperatives especially due to Iran and Gaza peace plans. US sees Munir’s utility in handling both these flash points. Pakistan’s geographic relevance, not battlefield dominance is the reason for this. Rest be assured that, the day this utility ceases, Munir would be sent packing home.

States engage with weak and strong actors alike when interests demand it. Diplomacy is transactional, not a scoreboard of wins and losses.

If diplomatic outreach were proof of victory, then every sanctioned or diplomatically courted state would be a “winner”, which is plainly absurd.

Any Indo-Pak war is unwinnable in absolute terms. Pakistan faces severe economic fragility, energy constraints, and dependence on external financing. India faces massive population exposure, economic disruption, and global market consequences.

This is precisely why neither side crosses certain thresholds. It is evidence that both understand the cost of miscalculation and decided to stand down on 10th May.

Narratives of “total victory” are domestic morale tools. They have been propagated by the same establishment that is trying to market JF-17 to half the third world Air Forces to create a narrative for domestic consumption. A narrative that JF-17 was so great that the whole world is dying to induct it. This is being sold as a proof. Both supporting each other. Nothing but bordering on a lie.

I do acknowledge that Pakistan punched way above its weight class for its performance on 07th May. There are many facts that show severe shortcomings on later dates and by no way a sign of a victory that is being claimed.

A genuine assessment must acknowledge that neither India nor Pakistan has won, and both would lose catastrophically if escalation ever crossed the point of control.

Both in 2019 and 2025, you guys had more to lose. You come in with this big airstrike of retribution (Op Bandar and Sindoor) and lose manpower and equipment in the process to do what? What is the tactical or strategic goal here? Is this supposed to scare or deter Pakistan in some way? Was that achieved?

We have far more losses on eastern border through insurgency. Ye tou phir bhi 3-4 din ki kitty party hoti hay.

All we have to do to get 'victory' is to shoot down a few aircraft, and keep things running as they were previously. Which they still are.

 

[maxpane]

I have my reservation about it being an air-to-air missile...
A missile will detonate but firing of motor is unlikely.

any guess what it could be

 

[Jango007]

R37 to 2019 main hi zaleel ho gaya tha

AMRAAM dodgers and all that

No PL15 dodgers this time

Their Rafael new patches are PL15 eaters on it …..

 

[MirageV3ff]

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Close up of the su-30 shot down over Jammu.

Credits to @shazilgotnolifeee and @nubaidfr from Instagram for uncovering this video.

 

[Cipher212]

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Close up of the su-30 shot down over Jammu.

Credits to @shazilgotnolifeee and @nubaidfr from Instagram for uncovering this video.

MiG-29. Check the accessories on the engine. They match with RD-33

 

[MirageV3ff]

MiG-29. Check the accessories on the engine. They match with RD-33

Wasn't that from another location?

 

[MirageV3ff]

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View attachment 173565
Drone struck this AH-64 apparently. Wish we had more clearer images

Regarding the post above. Image is old, from 2023. As mentioned in another post, it's just a badly pixelated image

 

[Princeps]

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Close up of the su-30 shot down over Jammu.

Credits to @shazilgotnolifeee and @nubaidfr from Instagram for uncovering this video.

Isn't this Mig-29 from Ramban? Seems very similar to what that BSF soldier recorded

 

[Cipher212]

Wasn't that from another location?

Looks like the same wreckage from Jammu, Ramban to me. Same forest where Indian soldier recorded video in selfie mode. Never seen this video before though.

 

[ThrustVector998]

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Close up of the su-30 shot down over Jammu.

Credits to @shazilgotnolifeee and @nubaidfr from Instagram for uncovering this video.

Looks to be that Mig29 over Ramban area - Forest and trees also match that terrain from initial vids

 

[MirageV3ff]

Isn't this Mig-29 from Ramban? Seems very similar to what that BSF soldier recorded

Could also be that. I'm cross referencing both su-30 and mig-29 photos and crash site locations for a more accurate answer.
But yea this is likely a mig-29

 

[Oscar]

There has been this theory of Pakistan winning the skirmish in May 25 and entire “world recognising this win” theory is being sold.

It is also being claimed that Pakistan has made massive diplomatic gains due to this “so called win”.

This has been raised on some other threads too hence, I would put my points here to debunk these theories and also that Pakistan has made any game changing diplomatic gains after May 25 that can be attributed to the skirmish.

The claim that Trump is wooing Pakistan since it sees a strong nation is exaggerated. Improved diplomatic activity or selective engagement with Pakistan reflects regional stabilisation imperatives especially due to Iran and Gaza peace plans. US sees Munir’s utility in handling both these flash points. Pakistan’s geographic relevance, not battlefield dominance is the reason for this. Rest be assured that, the day this utility ceases, Munir would be sent packing home.

States engage with weak and strong actors alike when interests demand it. Diplomacy is transactional, not a scoreboard of wins and losses.

If diplomatic outreach were proof of victory, then every sanctioned or diplomatically courted state would be a “winner”, which is plainly absurd.

Any Indo-Pak war is unwinnable in absolute terms. Pakistan faces severe economic fragility, energy constraints, and dependence on external financing. India faces massive population exposure, economic disruption, and global market consequences.

This is precisely why neither side crosses certain thresholds. It is evidence that both understand the cost of miscalculation and decided to stand down on 10th May.

Narratives of “total victory” are domestic morale tools. They have been propagated by the same establishment that is trying to market JF-17 to half the third world Air Forces to create a narrative for domestic consumption. A narrative that JF-17 was so great that the whole world is dying to induct it. This is being sold as a proof. Both supporting each other. Nothing but bordering on a lie.

I do acknowledge that Pakistan punched way above its weight class for its performance on 07th May. There are many facts that show severe shortcomings on later dates and by no way a sign of a victory that is being claimed.

A genuine assessment must acknowledge that neither India nor Pakistan has won, and both would lose catastrophically if escalation ever crossed the point of control.

Please do apply the same “weight class” spectacles on India’s performance and situation this entire past year.

 

[Areesh]

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Close up of the su-30 shot down over Jammu.

Credits to @shazilgotnolifeee and @nubaidfr from Instagram for uncovering this video.

It is mig29 of ramban