May 25 was not about any military victory or destruction but display of intent and testing the limits of the nuclear deterrence. India indicated that it would not hesitate to cross again (like 2019), nuclear or no nuclear.
It was foolish to assume that you attack a country with professional defence forces and then say - Ok ok. Let’s be good now. That was as stupid as it could get. Must be a brain fade moment when this was thought out, that too with 2019 precedence as an evidence, that it would fail. Rafale gave them overconfidence. Poor trait for military leaders.
That is what it became, around nuclear bluff, but we cannot make things up as we please, may 6th India felt that they could use the rafels and attack Pakistan at will.
Just apply a simple thought experiment, imagine that you had not incurred losses, what would your narrative be then?
Following the proper timeline of events, the Rafale was believed to be in excess of anything Pakistan could manage, this is why a few of these going down is not just a psychological blow, it represents at least a partial doctrine failure, saying that called a nuclear bluff, absent of war, is pointless
However, stupid or smart they were, they definitely didn’t want a full fledged war. Because that can go south in many ways
This idea that you can have limited wars is again some type of doctrine failure, because then the only way this makes sense is if you pull this off with more success than not, so you have two examples where this failed, the second one happened because the Rafael was meant to be too much and the difference between your first previous attempt where you lost the MIG
So what are we left with, India insisting they have a right to attack Pakistan, incur high profile losses in succession, but they don't want war, yet they are much bigger and stronger.
disagree with this. One can control a start but end is not in any body’s hand. Even on the 10th May, had Pakistan said that they too want some satellite pictures before a ceasefire, then it could have gone into something big. One can control the firing of the first bullet. Nothing after that.
Yes, and again I'm wondering why that is worrisome for India
Because my stupid people were expecting that they would do a precise attack and not allow it to escalate any further. There was no appetite for a full war. Didn’t turn out as they had expected and they had to go upto Brahmos, Scalp etc when it cooled down.
Had the premise been any more, the initial attack would have been more military in nature. However, it was more of a symbolic one against non-military targets.
They still offered a ceasefire after 7th May after initial strike. Ok, ok, let’s calm down was conveyed but turned down by Munir and “time and place of own choosing” was conveyed.
My point is that, this “time and place of choosing” wasn’t as stellar as it was assumed and as it is claimed by majority of Pak posters. BuM didn’t really produce the kind of results that got Munir one extra star.
Had a ceasefire been accepted on the 7th, imagine the Indian situation. Lost four fighters and attacked 11 terrorists targets. Worst possible optics.
Again we cannot rewrite the timeline, at the time the initial strikes were meant to be counter terrorism, you go in make a point and out. It did not turn out like that, so then it escalated, but then you don't want escalation, okay then why do you start this to begin with
The nuclear angle only came in because the initial counterterrorism operation failed, therefore you have to change the narrative, but again it's ridiculous to go from where you started to where you end up, your narrative had to escalate many rungs to compensate for the lack of decisiveness in your conventional attack.
This doesn't even serve the message you think it does, because it has alerted Pakistan and china to fix shortcomings, that's not a signal of anything unless you prolong the war and actually credibly make it count, instead it's a heads up on how to defend against India's nuclear narrative against Pakistan.
This again has to be a strategic blunder, unless you believe the nukes were taken out and Lahore port also was taken out, ok so what, more missiles more Air defense incoming
